MAG5035 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The reversal/tanking of the SOI continues to gain steam. The negative daily values the last few days are easily the most negative of the whole winter season. Much more in line of what is typically seen during Nino’s of stronger magnitude. And as such, the MJO forecasts continue to look set up for an eventual 8-1-2 run after its loop around in 7 the next several days. Further aligning signals are the currently very positive NAO/AO reversing and eventually developing a stronger +PNA and -EPO. Indications for a pattern shift to favor a more wintry regime in the eastern US later in Feb are strong. I said the other day I favored V-day onward for this to start talking hold and that’s about the consensus of most other folks that talk pattern here and in other sub forums. So I don’t really have much to add in that regard that hasn’t been already discussed and mapped out daily. So with that said, I feel like people’s expectations and patience could be tested in the interim. The opening 10 to possibly up to 15 days of the month look really warm.. a necessary evil unfortunately as the trough starts west and eventually shifts to set up shop in the east near the end of the regular operational ensemble guidance range as we build more Greenland ridging in the NAO realm and Western US/E pac ridging in the PNA/EPO realm. Once the influence of whatever ends up spinning around the SE coast early next week moves away, there’s going to be a period of more significant ridging and + temps that take over for a time as a trough first sets up in the west and + heights are able to build the rest of the way into the East. Here’s how we look on the ensembles the next 14 days… Week 1, stupid warm in central Canada and the northern US Week 2, warmth centered more east with western trough I’m only going to D14 with these here, but when you use the full 15-16days in the ensembles, you can see those + anomalies start fading on those temp anomaly averages (I’m using 7 day average here)… as that’s the period where models are starting to indicate the pattern shift taking hold in the east. This pattern change is a matter of when and not if, IMO.. so what we’ll be trying to nail down the next week or so is how fast/slow this occurs. I think there’s still much TBD with respect to that, since the more wholesale shift is still mostly out past D10 on guidance. This change could even come faster, but it might not… which is why I mentioned it could test people’s patience/expectations. Especially if we line up a storm window within a few days either side of Valentine’s Day and we’re not quite there yet to give many folks a widespread snow event out of it, for example. So we’ll see.. I am certainly positive on the prospects of a good later season winter run, but keeping expectations in check. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Factoid from Weather World this evening: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 32 minutes ago, Festus said: Factoid from Weather World this evening: That’s really reflected on their temp departures for the month. PIT is only about +2ºF for the month for high temps, but they’re nearly +6ºF for min temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 That’s really reflected on their temp departures for the month. PIT is only about +2ºF for the month for high temps, but they’re nearly +6ºF for min temps. How do they count overcast days? By number of hours, then rounded? Where can one even find the data, as it's not in climate daily?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The reversal/tanking of the SOI continues to gain steam. The negative daily values the last few days are easily the most negative of the whole winter season. Much more in line of what is typically seen during Nino’s of stronger magnitude. And as such, the MJO forecasts continue to look set up for an eventual 8-1-2 run after its loop around in 7 the next several days. Further aligning signals are the currently very positive NAO/AO reversing and eventually developing a stronger +PNA and -EPO. Indications for a pattern shift to favor a more wintry regime in the eastern US later in Feb are strong. I said the other day I favored V-day onward for this to start talking hold and that’s about the consensus of most other folks that talk pattern here and in other sub forums. So I don’t really have much to add in that regard that hasn’t been already discussed and mapped out daily. So with that said, I feel like people’s expectations and patience could be tested in the interim. The opening 10 to possibly up to 15 days of the month look really warm.. a necessary evil unfortunately as the trough starts west and eventually shifts to set up shop in the east near the end of the regular operational ensemble guidance range as we build more Greenland ridging in the NAO realm and Western US/E pac ridging in the PNA/EPO realm. Once the influence of whatever ends up spinning around the SE coast early next week moves away, there’s going to be a period of more significant ridging and + temps that take over for a time as a trough first sets up in the west and + heights are able to build the rest of the way into the East. Here’s how we look on the ensembles the next 14 days… Week 1, stupid warm in central Canada and the northern US Week 2, warmth centered more east with western trough I’m only going to D14 with these here, but when you use the full 15-16days in the ensembles, you can see those + anomalies start fading on those temp anomaly averages (I’m using 7 day average here)… as that’s the period where models are starting to indicate the pattern shift taking hold in the east. This pattern change is a matter of when and not if, IMO.. so what we’ll be trying to nail down the next week or so is how fast/slow this occurs. I think there’s still much TBD with respect to that, since the more wholesale shift is still mostly out past D10 on guidance. This change could even come faster, but it might not… which is why I mentioned it could test people’s patience/expectations. Especially if we line up a storm window within a few days either side of Valentine’s Day and we’re not quite there yet to give many folks a widespread snow event out of it, for example. So we’ll see.. I am certainly positive on the prospects of a good later season winter run, but keeping expectations in check. Great post! It has been good to see the SOI finally tank this week. The MJO is heading towards the favorable phases. Everything is lining up for a potential great run from mid February to at least early March. I agree, patience will be needed, but it’s good to see no can kicking on the ensembles for the last few days. I also like the agreement between all 3 global ensembles on the great looking pattern once we get to around the 13th & beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 It is painful that the two weeks of absolute peak climo is going to be a semi torch without any moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 16 minutes ago, canderson said: It is painful that the two weeks of absolute peak climo is going to be a semi torch without any moisture. We are going to more than make up for this lost time. Many Winters that we remember as good seasons had long breaks in the action in peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 My average temp for the month of January 2024 was 32.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6z GFS says Happy Valentine’s Day to CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles. That is a worrisome as depicted. Cutter Miller B. Only show on the docket though unless Feb 5th slings back west in to us. GFS has it making it to New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a worrisome as depicted. Cutter Miller B. Only show on the docket though unless Feb 5th slings back west in to us. GFS has it masking it to New England. The main point of my post is that ALL 3 ensembles show the pattern changing UNDER 300 hours- no more extrapolating 384 maps & extended ensemble products. This is the BEGINNING of the the pattern change at hour 294………. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Here is the end of the EPS at hour 360 & the Canadian ensemble at hour 384….the good looks have developed into very good looks… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 The 6z GEFS is only out to hour 348 on WB right now….but it has clearly continued to develop into a great look a few days after the 294 hour maps posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a worrisome as depicted. Cutter Miller B. Only show on the docket though unless Feb 5th slings back west in to us. GFS has it masking it to New England. We are going to have to get through a couple cutters most likely in the 10th - 15th range before we get to the promise land. (Hopefully) I said yesterday in the MA forum if we can't get snow with the looks on the ensembles for the back half of February it's time to find another hobby lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Not sure how you are seeing Miller B out of these looks? Also, the main point of my post is that ALL 3 ensembles show the pattern changing UNDER 300 hours- no more extrapolating 384 maps & extended ensemble products. This is the BEGINNING of the the pattern change at hour 294………. The snow you showed is a cutter that transfers beneath us just in time for some....complicated. The far SE LSV loses out. Here is the progression. But it is a 300 hr plus storm. It will change. It was a bowling ball yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We are going to have to get through a couple cutters most likely in the 10th - 15th range before we get to the promise land. (Hopefully) I said yesterday in the MA forum if we can't get snow with the looks on the ensembles for the back half of February it's time to find another hobby lol I think there are 2 camps (at least.). Getting snow seems like a real good bet but if we only get 6-10" total snow, there are going to be some going on the war path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The snow you showed is a cutter that transfers beneath us just in time for some....complicated. The far SE LSV loses out. Here is the progression. But it is a 300 hr plus storm. It will change. It was a bowling ball yesterday. Too much analysis on a storm 2 weeks away. Plus, this is just the beginning of the pattern we've been looking forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Too much analysis on a storm 2 weeks away. Plus, this is just the beginning of the pattern we've been looking forward to. Model PBP. Not going to punt to Late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Jan 2024's final numbers at MDT. One positive is it was only half as bad as last Jan's AN departure. Low temps "led the way" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Model PBP. Sure, just as long as we are not always bringing up how it could fail when it's that far out. Maybe 5 days out, but not 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I think there are 2 camps (at least.). Getting snow seems like a real good bet but if we only get 6-10" total snow, there are going to be some going on the war path. I never thought people would go on war path for getting snow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think there are 2 camps (at least.). Getting snow seems like a real good bet but if we only get 6-10" total snow, there are going to be some going on the war path. I average almost 30" a season. More in a Nino. You should be about the same. If we get another 6 to 10 that is going to put me around 20 for the season. That's a he'll of alot better than last year lol but still a d/ d- in my book. We need to make our hay in nino's. Next winter will probably be a disaster honestly. I loved the week we had a couple weeks ago of deep winter. But the other 7 weeks of winter hasn't been good. I won't go on a war path lol but if I end the season around 20" I would consider it a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think there are 2 camps (at least.). Getting snow seems like a real good bet but if we only get 6-10" total snow, there are going to be some going on the war path. Every day that passes is one day closer to spring. So my take is your starting to beat the drums of war on winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 12 minutes ago, anotherman said: Sure, just as long as we are not always bringing up how it could fail when it's that far out. Maybe 5 days out, but not 2 weeks. Understood. I posted this same period yesterday with a more favorable option of it bowling balling over to us (though still worrisome for far south) which was a better option compared to this Am's GFS less desirable Miller look. There is just as much chance there is no storm vs. it being a cutter or bowling ball, just discussion of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I never thought people would go on war path for getting snow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I average almost 30" a season. More in a Nino. You should be about the same. If we get another 6 to 10 that is going to put me around 20 for the season. That's a he'll of alot better than last year lol but still a d/ d- in my book. We need to make our hay in nino's. Next winter will probably be a disaster honestly. I loved the week we had a couple weeks ago of deep winter. But the other 7 weeks of winter hasn't been good. I won't go on a war path lol but if I end the season around 20" I would consider it a disappointment. @Jns2183 I was more alluding to a different thread :-). @Chris78 with our temps being even warmer this year than last, on average so far, I am in the same camp as you though 10" more of snow along with 1-2 more weeks of temps near or below freezing all day would make me give it a C. 10" of snow and temps well AN again for Feb and D- is also my call. I am starting to question why I keep multiple winter coats in my closet when it gets to 40 or above most days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Low of 29 here. MDT ends the month with a mean temp of 35.0, 4.2 AN and good for 20th place all-time. Better tracking in the weeks ahead. Patience, young grasshoppers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @Jns2183 I was more alluding to a different thread :-). @Chris78 with our temps being even warmer this year than last, on average so far, I am in the same camp as you though 10" more of snow along with 1-2 more weeks of temps near or below freezing all day would make me give it a C. 10" of snow and temps well AN again for Feb and D- is also my call. I am starting to question why I keep multiple winter coats in my closet when it gets to 40 or above most days. Moths need a home too ya' know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Moths need a home too ya' know.Screw emSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Screw em Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Screw em?....a tiny moth? You been talking to my wife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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