mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just short on cold air as we all knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bliz, I also noticed that High pressure in Canada was weaker at 1030 vs 1033 at 12z. I think the key will be to weaken the primary before WV & then jump the low to the coast in the DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think the key will be to weaken the primary before WV & then jump the low to the coast in the DelMarVa. Yep, and then deepen off the coast like the 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep, and then deepen off the coast like the 12z. Long way to go…soon we can add the RGEM & NAM to the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Long way to go…soon we can add the RGEM & NAM to the mix. Nam is a mess. Looks more like the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I'll take the 6z Gfs and call it a month. 6z Nam looks interesting, but more for my northern...friends? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'll take the 6z Gfs and call it a month. 6z Nam looks interesting, but more for my northern...friends? Lol upcoming weekend event has been a wonky evolution (transfer wise). Once that gets sorted out a bit better, maybe some get luck and freshen up. While I'll concede to the transfer, blocking up north has me scratchin my noggin as to why this will happen as depicted. also thermally, 700's are okish, but 850's are really lagging for se 1/3 or state. I wanna buy what its selling, but I'll hold for now. FWIW 6z nam came around a bit and is notably SE of 0z. I'll keep watchin...got nothin better to do while its raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I'll take the 6z Gfs and call it a month. 6z Nam looks interesting, but more for my northern...friends? Lol Yes, the 6z GFS is very nice for all of CTP. The High is in a good spot up in Quebec It is the best run since the Euro yesterday. This will be very interesting to watch the models today & tomorrow as hopefully consensus builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the 6z GFS is very nice for all of CTP. The High is in a good spot up in Quebec It is the best run since the Euro yesterday. This will be very interesting to watch the models today & tomorrow as hopefully consensus builds. Yep, but literally no ensemble support. But I don't think any of the models have really figured it out. I was surprised to see the Eps 0z run pulled back from snowfall amounts in NE from its 18z run. Sorta expected to see it increase snowfall waiving bye-bye to our chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE.It reminds me of a mid March storm. Basically no cold air and elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6z Euro has a decent coastal low position. If there are good rates & you have a little elevation, some could score a little snow out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Long way to go & at least we are in the game in what we originally thought would be a lost week for any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The full 6z GFS looks loaded with opportunities to score over the next 2 weeks. If that look holds, we should have chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Long way to go & at least we are in the game in what we originally thought would be a lost week for any chance. Euro seemingly folding to the Gfs but without the closed low over MD, which is what gives most of PA its snow. If the Gfs loses the closed low (like the Gefs), we're toast on the snow. Still time, but this event has been a longshot all along for goof reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro seemingly folding to the Gfs but without the closed low over MD, which is what gives most of PA its snow. If the Gfs loses the closed low (like the Gefs), we're toast on the snow. Still time, but this event has been a longshot all along for goof reason. We need a lot to go right for this event to work out, but at least we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: We need a lot to go right for this event to work out, but at least we have a chance. I agree. Better than 2+ weeks of no chances and torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I just looked at the 6z NAM & I like how far south the snow is showing before the coastal gets going at the end of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Dense fog across much of the area this morning rain chances increase through much of the day with upward of 0.5" of rain falling by late tonight. We should see temps rise into the 50's today with low's night likely to set a record warm low temperature for the 26th. The current warm low is 42 degrees set back in 1967 - the current NWS Forecast has us at 46 for a low. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day in this stretch with temps falling back to near normal by Sunday and below normal by Monday. Rain from Saturday night through Monday AM could change to some snow by late Sunday night especially across NW areas. Records for today: High 73 (1967) / Low 2 below (1935) / Precipitation 2.54" / Snow 25.4" (1905) that was the 2nd day of a 2 day snowstorm that resulted in 29" of snow our 4th largest storm in history behind only February 14, 1899 (53.0") / December 26, 1909 (38.0") and April 12, 1894 (29.2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: I agree. Better than 2+ weeks of no chances and torch. Just one imminent torch day. The blinds were never shut, nor were snow chances ever off the table. Just a tougher pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE. Thats what makes more sense based on pattern. I like to see the blocking, but its a tad north IMO. Thermally, this panel seals the casket for me. 12hrs later...still cookin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The full 6z GFS looks loaded with opportunities to score over the next 2 weeks. If that look holds, we should have chances. IF one believes....yeah, it did look good, but as i've always suggested, its gotta fit the pattern, and to me...I smell something foul.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: IF one believes....yeah, it did look good, but as i've always suggested, its gotta fit the pattern, and to me...I smell something foul.. Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way. Soylent Green for Trees. As a very young adult, I filled the candy and soda machines for Glatfelter (now a different company.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 41 and .2” of rain has fallen thus far. Not expecting anything white down here anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: 41 and .2” of rain has fallen thus far. Not expecting anything white down here anytime soon. Wow, I did not check the area temps. It is 57 here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Wow, I did not check the area temps. It is 57 here! Very raw here. Yards and fields hanging onto random patches of snow, otherwise just piles remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very raw here. Yards and fields hanging onto random patches of snow, otherwise just piles remaining. We have some piles as well, but it is not raw. I just checked WU and, in our case, there is an inversion going on as the higher temps are just elevations but in York and Lanco the higher temps are coming up from the south in valleys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 44 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way. I live about 5 miles from it. I can confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 45 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way. lol. That IS foul.... Been through that plant many moons ago. Wanted to burn my clothing when I got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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