Central PA Winter 23/24

[sauss06]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s better alright…

 

I'd drink to that

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

ALEET , ALEET! Lunchtime ALEET 

12z Euro…. For Sunday night.

If this happens, we should call it the @mitchnickstorm!

A few days ago Mitch was out until Mid Feb LOL. 

[pasnownut]

44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I believe snow depth is to be reported as an average.  I.E. if half your yard has 3 inch depth and half is bare you would report a snow depth of 1.5".  @Cashtown_Coop can verify

 

Yep, yard was full and solidly covered when I left for work this morning.  My backyard faces ESE but lies on a NW-facing slope.  Also have some tall trees around the perimeter that provide ample shade, but even the parts that aren't shaded were holding strong.  Tomorrow morning will be a different story ha. 

My yard was showing signs of caving....to the grass, but like yours was still holding up where it wasnt thin.  Tonight will be a snow eater. I've seen snow otg for about a week, so its a win for me no matter.  

Hoping we are trackin again soon.  This weekend is a sneaky surprise for the northers (as currently modeled, but would be backend loving for the lucky ones), as cold has been scoured and is gone leading up to the Sunday potential and with a cutter/redeveloper, I fear cold is too late to do much cept for elevation folks, but I've been wrong before. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A few days ago Mitch was out until Mid Feb LOL. 

No, I  said I  hoped we could steal one and also said this was our only shot to steal one and I  would stick with it thinking it wouid come south. 

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

ALEET , ALEET! Lunchtime ALEET 

12z Euro…. For Sunday night.

If this happens, we should call it the @mitchnickstorm!

guess i shoulda looked at this post before i posted my previous one.  GFS/CMC favored northers, this one favors many.  

You just found your model to hug. 

Just peeked on pivotal and it looks like ULL dives in to save the day for us...thermally.  Not sure why it slides SE at 96 as the HP up north is too far N to force it under, but hey....what do I know.  We'll take it. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, I  said I  hoped we could steal one and also said this was our only shot to steal one and I  would stick with it thinking it wouid come south. 

I hope we can  sneak something in over the next 15 days, even a mixed or slop event. Folks up north/west of mby have a better chance with pressing surface Highs being advertised.
 
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59789-central-pa-winter-2324/?do=findComment&comment=7170195

[AccuChris]

“Heck of a way to run a warm up”

[pasnownut]

34 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I'd drink to that

who you kiddin.....

you'd drink to many things..........

[mitchnick]

Eps upping totals too.

[Itstrainingtime]

MU's thoughts on the weekend storm and February: (he's thinking his cold and snowy February forecast will be a big fail) 

By Saturday afternoon, my attention will turn toward a developing storm system over the Deep South. The track, speed, and intensity of the storm system are presently highly uncertain, but odds favor it exiting the East Coast somewhere around the Delmarva Peninsula or New Jersey Sunday night. Skies will turn cloudy again Saturday evening, and more wet weather is a "good bet" later Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures will initially be way too high for any snow or sleet concerns, but a cold air mass draining southward out of New England could cause rain to change over to snow Sunday night. If this transition happens fast enough, then several inches of wet snow could fall across parts of the region. However, rain could just as easily end before any transition to wet snow. In this type of pattern, predictability has and will continue to be limited to a time span of 3-4 days. Thus, I'll post an update on and have a full analysis of Sunday's system at the end of the week. In the meantime.. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 6 and moved through phases 4 and 5 over the last 10 days. It will likely reach phase 7 by the weekend and may possibly stall there through the first 7-10 days of February. During El Niño, MJO activity in phases 4-7 often leads to a persistently mild and snowless pattern in the I-81 and I-95 corridors of the mid-Atlantic States in January and February (see below). There is usually a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so effects of the recent MJO activity just began over the last 48 hours.

In addition, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the North Pole every winter, has become very strong and stable following its weakened state during the past 3-4 weeks. Instead of being stretched out and split into two pieces, it is now in the shape of a doughnut over the Arctic Circle and expected to remain near the North Pole or drift toward the Eurasian side of the globe by early February. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storms and a less-amplified Jet Stream. To make a long story short, the odds are stacked against a significant snowfall or any more intrusions of Arctic air through at least the middle of February. As a warm-weather lover, I certainly won't complain, but this is admittedly a big change from my expectations for February in my Winter Outlook. I could choose to "go down with the ship," but there's no point in doing so when the writing is on the wall. In the words of the famous Kenny Rodgers, "Know when to fold em'.." -- Elliott

[Itstrainingtime]

It was kind of a kick in the groin to read that - soured my day.

Oh well. It's his opinion. It's a highly educated opinion, but could still be wrong. 

[AccuChris]

12z Euro EPS snowfall 10:1

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's thoughts on the weekend storm and February: (he's thinking his cold and snowy February forecast will be a big fail) 

By Saturday afternoon, my attention will turn toward a developing storm system over the Deep South. The track, speed, and intensity of the storm system are presently highly uncertain, but odds favor it exiting the East Coast somewhere around the Delmarva Peninsula or New Jersey Sunday night. Skies will turn cloudy again Saturday evening, and more wet weather is a "good bet" later Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures will initially be way too high for any snow or sleet concerns, but a cold air mass draining southward out of New England could cause rain to change over to snow Sunday night. If this transition happens fast enough, then several inches of wet snow could fall across parts of the region. However, rain could just as easily end before any transition to wet snow. In this type of pattern, predictability has and will continue to be limited to a time span of 3-4 days. Thus, I'll post an update on and have a full analysis of Sunday's system at the end of the week. In the meantime.. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 6 and moved through phases 4 and 5 over the last 10 days. It will likely reach phase 7 by the weekend and may possibly stall there through the first 7-10 days of February. During El Niño, MJO activity in phases 4-7 often leads to a persistently mild and snowless pattern in the I-81 and I-95 corridors of the mid-Atlantic States in January and February (see below). There is usually a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so effects of the recent MJO activity just began over the last 48 hours.

In addition, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the North Pole every winter, has become very strong and stable following its weakened state during the past 3-4 weeks. Instead of being stretched out and split into two pieces, it is now in the shape of a doughnut over the Arctic Circle and expected to remain near the North Pole or drift toward the Eurasian side of the globe by early February. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storms and a less-amplified Jet Stream. To make a long story short, the odds are stacked against a significant snowfall or any more intrusions of Arctic air through at least the middle of February. As a warm-weather lover, I certainly won't complain, but this is admittedly a big change from my expectations for February in my Winter Outlook. I could choose to "go down with the ship," but there's no point in doing so when the writing is on the wall. In the words of the famous Kenny Rodgers, "Know when to fold em'.." -- Elliott

If you go to this link, which is MJO phases in El Niños, Phase 7 in February is not warm in the east. There is a trough along the southern Conus, just like what long range modeling is showing; I've attached the image. I don't know where he got that. Maybe he's looking at all Enso phase average instead of Niños. 

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro EPS snowfall 10:1

Thanks Chris good to see!

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's thoughts on the weekend storm and February: (he's thinking his cold and snowy February forecast will be a big fail) 

By Saturday afternoon, my attention will turn toward a developing storm system over the Deep South. The track, speed, and intensity of the storm system are presently highly uncertain, but odds favor it exiting the East Coast somewhere around the Delmarva Peninsula or New Jersey Sunday night. Skies will turn cloudy again Saturday evening, and more wet weather is a "good bet" later Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures will initially be way too high for any snow or sleet concerns, but a cold air mass draining southward out of New England could cause rain to change over to snow Sunday night. If this transition happens fast enough, then several inches of wet snow could fall across parts of the region. However, rain could just as easily end before any transition to wet snow. In this type of pattern, predictability has and will continue to be limited to a time span of 3-4 days. Thus, I'll post an update on and have a full analysis of Sunday's system at the end of the week. In the meantime.. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 6 and moved through phases 4 and 5 over the last 10 days. It will likely reach phase 7 by the weekend and may possibly stall there through the first 7-10 days of February. During El Niño, MJO activity in phases 4-7 often leads to a persistently mild and snowless pattern in the I-81 and I-95 corridors of the mid-Atlantic States in January and February (see below). There is usually a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so effects of the recent MJO activity just began over the last 48 hours.

In addition, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the North Pole every winter, has become very strong and stable following its weakened state during the past 3-4 weeks. Instead of being stretched out and split into two pieces, it is now in the shape of a doughnut over the Arctic Circle and expected to remain near the North Pole or drift toward the Eurasian side of the globe by early February. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storms and a less-amplified Jet Stream. To make a long story short, the odds are stacked against a significant snowfall or any more intrusions of Arctic air through at least the middle of February. As a warm-weather lover, I certainly won't complain, but this is admittedly a big change from my expectations for February in my Winter Outlook. I could choose to "go down with the ship," but there's no point in doing so when the writing is on the wall. In the words of the famous Kenny Rodgers, "Know when to fold em'.." -- Elliott

Kenny ROGERS is offended along with weather nuts.  LOL

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Kenny ROGERS is offended along with weather nuts.  LOL

That was pretty much the last thing that I expected to read...especially how confident he seems to go along with it. 

[Jns2183]

That was pretty much the last thing that I expected to read...especially how confident he seems to go along with it. 

He was confident with first forcast as well

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you go to this link, which is MJO phases in El Niños, Phase 7 in February is not warm in the east. There is a trough along the southern Conus, just like what long range modeling is showing; I've attached the image. I don't know where he got that. Maybe he's looking at all Enso phase average instead of Niños. 

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

That said, the 12z ensembles are can kicking by holding onto the ridging in the east. At this point, who the he!! knows what modeling will show anymore. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That was pretty much the last thing that I expected to read...especially how confident he seems to go along with it. 

It is surprising he would punt for 3-4 weeks.  Something you see here more often but not from him as much.   2 weeks is a long time in the weather world.  A month is an uber long time. 

[anotherman]

“Heck of a way to run a warm up”

JB?

[anotherman]

It was kind of a kick in the groin to read that - soured my day.
Oh well. It's his opinion. It's a highly educated opinion, but could still be wrong. 

Dude is the ultimate crusher of dreams.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Dude is the ultimate crusher of dreams.

But not always right. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

He was confident with first forcast as well

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Sort of...but not really in the sense that it or "he" could fail - if you read his winter outlook, he clearly states that there was a boom/bust potential this winter. While Ninos are often snowy, some of our really crappy winters have come during Ninos. 

He crushed December and January - time will tell what happens next. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Dude is the ultimate crusher of dreams.

He seems to revel in it, too...

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

Dude is the ultimate crusher of dreams.

What I  don't get is why the change in the forecast today. I check every model's MJO forecast every day. They have not suddenly changed. If anything, they have moved the MJO wave faster toward the good phases in the last week than progged, which is good for us. But definitely the phase 7 forecast has been in the cards for over a week. Strange. I  think he just got a look at the 12z ensembles and just didn't say it.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

But not always right. 

Of course not...even the very best get it wrong from time to time.

That said, I'm certainly a lot more concerned than I was 24 hours ago. He's as good as he is for a reason. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, mitchnick said:

What I  don't get is why the change in the forecast today. I check every model's MJO forecast every day. They have not suddenly changed. If anything, they have moved the MJO wave faster toward the good phases in the last week than progged, which is good for us. But definitely the phase 7 forecast has been in the cards for over a week. Strange. I  think he just got a look at the 12z ensembles and just didn't say it.

He might have been thinking this before today. I doubt he went into the weather center and suddenly thought "ah hell, I'm changing my mind today" - I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and guess this has been coming for some time. 

[Itstrainingtime]

He did acknowledge that it might snow on Sunday night.  

[Jns2183]

Well it's my birthday Sunday and I for one very much hope we get to pull our very own 4th and 31 snowstorm.

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[paweather]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What I  don't get is why the change in the forecast today. I check every model's MJO forecast every day. They have not suddenly changed. If anything, they have moved the MJO wave faster toward the good phases in the last week than progged, which is good for us. But definitely the phase 7 forecast has been in the cards for over a week. Strange. I  think he just got a look at the 12z ensembles and just didn't say it.

I guess he lives on "hunches" and went with it today. There is no way someone can look at February and say it is going to go in this direction. He knows that but he is living with his forecast and changing it.