mahantango#1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ll take DT’s 4 to 6 in my yard & for the Harrisburg area. I wonder if he is on to something or was he hitting the bottle to much. But i remember maybe 10 years or so ago. NWS had me getting on their original call of 2-4 something like that. But during the storm they had to issue a special weather statement and up the accumulation. I ended up with about 8 inches. It wasn't everywhere but there were a few counties involved where a heavy snowband set up and lasted for a few hours. Maybe it will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 After all the great model runs, just checked my Nws forecast and they changed it from 2-4" last night to 1-2". Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: After all the great model runs, just checked my Nws forecast and they changed it from 2-4" last night to 1-2". Lol That is about where DT's map put you....close to the 2" line. I am solidly in the under 2" area. The advisory says 2-4" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 42 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i checked on @Atomixwx i was told he got a couple week vacation, but should be back soon. Welcome back @sauss06 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is about where DT's map put you....close to the 2" line. I am solidly in the under 2" area. The advisory says 2-4" though. Dt's map around DC could be right. Tough call down there. A 25 mile shift either way for them could mean 0 or 3 inches Along the M/D line and into southern PA I think there's a possible boom if things break right. Euro looks nice and improved the last few runs. Could see a boom scenario where along the border and southern PA gets 3 to 5. Ratios should be decent. Snow should be falling in 24 hours. Almost game time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Dt's map around DC could be right. Tough call down there. A 25 mile shift either way for them could mean 0 or 3 inches Along the M/D line and into southern PA I think there's a possible boom if things break right. Euro looks nice and improved the last few runs. Could see a boom scenario where along the border and southern PA gets 3 to 5. Ratios should be decent. Snow should be falling in 24 hours. Almost game time. Yea, I was mostly kidding on DT's map but some models have been showing us dry slotting so that is a concern. I still think temps will be near 30 for us. I like the 2-4 call right now (above the M/D line I think Sterling has you at 2-3 the last time I looked.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I was mostly kidding on DT's map but some models have been showing us dry slotting so that is a concern. I still think temps will be near 30 for us. I like the 2-4 call right now (above the M/D line I think Sterling has you at 2-3 the last time I looked.) I Hate that damn inverted V signature from Miller B's lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I Hate that damn inverted V signature from Miller B's lol I would like to see the vort stay a bit further south. All of us would still get snow but would lessen our chances of vaporizing qpf. 12Z HRRR coming in and it is a little South and faster as compared to 6Z (at 1Z tonight.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is about where DT's map put you....close to the 2" line. I am solidly in the under 2" area. The advisory says 2-4" though. The odd part is that all the new runs have me at 3-4". Yesterday I said the Nws forecast of 2-4" was too high and 1-3" was more likely. So when I saw the runs overnight, I figured they were right. Then I check the forecast and they cut it back. Makes little sense. I'm starting to think somebody from CTP driving thru Hanover stopped at the Starlight and got a lousy meal, so now they're getting even. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I would like to see the vort stay a bit further south. All of us would still get snow but would lessen our chances of vaporizing qpf. 12Z HRRR coming in and it is South and faster as compared to 6Z (at 1Z tonight.) Southern half of VA would be a nice path foe the vort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: The odd part is that all the new runs have me at 3-4". Yesterday I said the Nws forecast of 2-4" was too high and 1-3" was more likely. So when I saw the runs overnight, I figured they were right. Then I check the forecast and they cut it back. Makes little sense. I'm starting to think somebody from CTP driving thru Hanover stopped at the Starlight and got a lousy meal, so now they're getting even. They could not find parking and ended up at Olive Garden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: They could not find parking and ended up at Olive Garden. It's funny you mention the parking issue. My wife and I always go during off hours, so it's never an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, good run Euro run again at 6z This has to be the best Euro run yet for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, mitchnick said: It's funny you mention the parking issue. My wife and I always go during off hours, so it's never an issue. I have never been there but often see cars lined up looking for parking when I go by....circling like sharks. Close to noon of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Vort in SE VA at 6Z tomorrow AM on the HRRR. Some light snow in far South Central and SW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Vort gains latitude the next 2 hours and in WV as most of PA snowing by 8Z. A weakling at 1007 so will not resist transferring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Low stays almost stationary the next 2-3 hours as most of PA continues with light snow. Radar rep not great though and some holes in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Low of 15 here. Currently sitting at 19. Pretty straight-forward long duration light snowfall event upon us, which has been modeled very consistently for the most part. Everyone enjoy the flakes and the weekend cold because we may be in for an extended warm period thereafter. It looks like I've lost barely any snow here from the last event. Always love to get snow on top of snow. Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Low dissipates/elongates/transfers around 16Z after sitting over WV for 6-7 hours. Still light snow in PA. 1006 forming off the NJ coast. Still a 500H representation back in N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Snow dissipating over Western PA at 2PM but definitely some coastal influence for Eastern PA as snow picks up the pace a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR jackpoting mby similar to Euro fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nice to see overnighters holdin on to another event for Friday. Getting close enough that the carpet might get tugged on, but it shouldnt get ripped out from under us. 2-4 on top of earlier week event makes for an awesome week, as no matter the end result....its snow on snow. Happy Pre Snowy Friday to all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 A pretty nice run IMO...still snowing in the Eastern LSV at 22Z. Going to be a crowd pleaser for the LSV with the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3-5" for the central and Southern LSV. Close or under 3" for some of the North LSV and MSV as well as just to the West of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A pretty nice run IMO...still snowing in the Eastern LSV at 22Z. Going to be a crowd pleasure for the LSV with the snow maps. Indeed it is. The type of ramp-up you love to see on the Mesos inside of 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Got down to 6 degrees overnight. Not a big fan of single digits, not use to them anymore Snow wise, hopefully it’s and over achiever. I saw NWS changed the maps. Snowblower is fueled and chute siliconed up...send it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The odd part is that all the new runs have me at 3-4". Yesterday I said the Nws forecast of 2-4" was too high and 1-3" was more likely. So when I saw the runs overnight, I figured they were right. Then I check the forecast and they cut it back. Makes little sense. I'm starting to think somebody from CTP driving thru Hanover stopped at the Starlight and got a lousy meal, so now they're getting even. ebbs and flows of models still gets us every time. Ya'd think our old asses would know better...and just when we think we do... Thats the fun of being a bunch of weenies....we dont get paid (and dont need to act like we get paid) to know better. We can just chat and have fun with it. (well thats how I feel anyway). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 3-5" for the central and Southern LSV. Close or under 3" for some of the North LSV and MSV as well as just to the West of the LSV. Crowd pleaser right there. I'll even approve for @Atomixwxon his behalf while he's still on "vacation". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Another kuchera snow map from latest long range HRRR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Another kuchera snow map from latest long range HRRRLooking solid!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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