mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, paweather said: Yuck! Whenever the ensemble mean is more than the operational, operational is probably too low. Not that there's a huge difference, but the ensemble mean is definitely better than operational using Pivotal. Weatherbell maps are always higher. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We might have a problem with atmospheric memory on Friday as in the heaviest stuff may fall to our south. You can see it in the Eps and Gfs that they want to jackpot the same area as today. Canadians favor PA. To early to say for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We might have a problem with atmospheric memory on Friday as in the heaviest stuff may fall to our south. You can see it in the Eps and Gfs that they want to jackpot the same area as today. Canadians favor PA. Too early to say for certain. Friday is a different set up than today. Also, most totals that I read for today’s event showed 4 inches or so in MD/DC, which was similar to what most had in our region today. One more thing, Go Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, paweather said: Yuck! Ensemble maps are only ever 10-1 ratio. Friday’s event should have very good ratios with the Arctic air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Friday is a different set up than today. Also, most totals that I read for today’s event showed 4 inches or so in MD/DC, which was similar to what most had in our region today. One more thing, Go Canada! It wasn't that much more, but most of MD definitely got more than we did today - shoot, even DCA came in at 4.1". BWI was just under 5". Most of the LSV was between 2 and 4". I'd say on average, most spots down there got about 1 - 1.5" more than most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It wasn't that much more, but most of MD definitely got more than we did today - shoot, even DCA came in at 4.1". BWI was just under 5". Most of the LSV was between 2 and 4". I'd say on average, most spots down there got about 1 - 1.5" more than most of us. Lol, it’s not like MD had 10 & we got 4…. I’m pretty sure that most people would call 3 & 4 “close” … Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The 21z SREF has the higher totals to our north for Friday. It will be interesting to see the NAM soon to see it if agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 0z NAM good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, paweather said: 0z NAM good run Yes, it improved a little for many of us over its 18z run, including Rouzerville, Harrisburg & Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, it improved a little for many of us over its 18z run, including Rouzerville, Harrisburg & Lancaster. Yep Lancaster bullseye with 3-4” for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 0z ICON was a CTP winner for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z ICON was a CTP winner for Friday. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 OT but if you want a good midweek laugh from a fellow Pennsylvanian watch this video 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Low of 6....up to 8 now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Low of 7.7F (so far).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Not impressed with the 6Z runs (cannot see the Euro) for Friday. A Canderson broom off outside the Canadian and Icon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Good consensus on the weather models this morning for Friday snow of 3 to 4 inches for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 here at the moment. Lowest since January 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 this morning. we are definitely in the deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6z Euro improved slightly for the southern tier over 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good consensus on the weather models this morning for Friday snow of 3 to 4 inches for us. Here is the GFS on pivotal. Hard to keep track of what is what with the model sites being off by 25% or more from other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is the GFS on pivotal. Hard to keep track of what is what with the model sites being off by 25% or more from other sites. Lol, every map in every format from every website has us getting an average of 3 inches. Some runs will show a little more & some a little less, but at this point it’s safe to say another Advisory event of 2 to 4 is on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro improved slightly for the southern tier over 0z. Got the entire run out to 90 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, every map in every format from every website has us getting an average of 3 inches. Some runs will show a little more & some a little less, but at this point it’s safe to say another Advisory event of 2 to 4 is on the way. Don't look at TT then. It has you getting 1"-2" on the Icon and 2" on the Nam 12. Not advocating TT's maps but not every map on every site. 1-3 or 2-4 seems prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Don't look at TT then. It has you getting 1"-2" on the Icon and 2" on the Nam 12. Not advocating TT's maps but not every map on every site. 1-3 or 2-4 seems prudent. TT only has 10-1…. This is a good ratio storm. Kuchera ratio at minimum is the way to go to account for ratio potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got the entire run out to 90 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Pretty Long duration of light snow event coming...Dawn to Dusk type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: TT only has 10-1…. This is a good ratio storm. Kuchera ratio at minimum is the way to go to account for ratio potential. TT uses True SLR for the Icon which I read was an alternate to Kuch. It is not necessarily 10-1 and, in this case, does not match up with the qpf map if it were 10-1. Here is the Icon 10-1 on Pivotal. Much higher than TT with the point being gross differences between model sites snow maps is always a cause for confusion. WB is almost always higher than the rest for true snow situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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