Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 National Weather Service isn’t punting. @frd just shared this in the Mid Atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: National Weather Service isn’t punting. @frd just shared this in the Mid Atlantic thread. Those dates are what we were talking about. Jan 15-20th. A nice cold stretch from the 13th for 7-10 days and then a relaxation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: National Weather Service isn’t punting. @frd just shared this in the Mid Atlantic thread. If there's one thing for certain, the model depictions for the 16/17th today will not be reality on the 16/17th. So we got that going for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: I think it's fair to say most are here for the snow. Even with that general forecast that matches strong Niños, many of those Niños had snow during warm months. I think it’s also fair to say that decent winter show themselves by now taking into consideration the date and forecasts for the next 10 days. If we're honest, this winter fails to have any characteristics of a decent/snowy winter. Using Bwi as my benchmark, if we/they fail the rest of January, which I would define as 2":or less for them and 4" or less here, we're looking at 94/95 and 97/98 as a viable strong Niño options. I'll stop right there. I agree with your assessment. Good winters find a way to snow. This winter isn't shaping up that way. It's been very tough so far. The next week is cutter city. After that we have a shot. It we miss that then we're looking at late January early February. I believe bwi is still at a trace? Things can change quickly. It just takes 1 well timed storm but so far this isn't the feel of an above average winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Old saying, "misery loves company", some on here look for anything that says punt rest of January. You people scare the snow away! LOL Anything bad some here can't wait to trumpet it; anything good, oh that will change. Move to Maine and be happy, live in southern PA south and east, well suffer. Get over it. Come up here to the pocono's where I am; you'll see more snow; past weekend around 11 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I was just talking about today's run. Mlk is a problem since we go into the unfavorable MJO phases on or about the 13th. I think by Mlk we fight the MJO. Hopefully, it passes fast into 7, but MJO forecasts stink. In any event, if we miss next week, I think it's a while before anything legit pops up. Jmho as much as I wish it wasn't. I just realized when I posted this, I was thinking MLK was the following Monday, 1/22. So replace "Mlk" with 1/22. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, NEPA MT TOP said: Old saying, "misery loves company", some on here look for anything that says punt rest of January. You people scare the snow away! LOL Anything bad some here can't wait to trumpet it; anything good, oh that will change. Move to Maine and be happy, live in southern PA south and east, well suffer. Get over it. Come up here to the pocono's where I am; you'll see more snow; past weekend around 11 inches. We all want as much snow as possible. Regardless, I have no qualms discussing when things look bad or good. If things are going bad, I have no desire to look intoxicated pimping a storm that has no shot since I can do a fine job looking stupid posting about legit chances. In one of life's best eye opening lessons stated to me by my late uncle (God rest his soul), "...with the cream comes the cr@p." That pretty much sums up this hobby for snow lovers outside of climatologically favored snow regions of this earth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We all want as much snow as possible. Regardless, I have no qualms discussing when things look bad or good. If things are going bad, I have no desire to look intoxicated pimping a storm that has no shot since I can do a fine job looking stupid posting about legit chances. In one of life's best eye opening lessons stated to me by my late uncle (God rest his soul), "...with the cream comes the cr@p." That pretty much sums up this hobby for snow lovers outside of climatologically favored snow regions of this earth. I was the one that riled up man on the mountain with the punt word and I stand by my comment. If that 16-20th low does not run under us and intensify to our North East, and act to fight off the relaxation in the pattern, we could have a good week or more period of AN temps on the heels on the cold spell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Who is they. I never saw any legitimate office calling for cold and snow last year in the long range. Considering it was a Nina winter it would have been a dumb forcast to put out lol. Even this year the only long range goodies I have seen are by youtubers ,wishcaster weenies, twitter, here at the forum, and clown maps. I'm sure my view will be disliked, but none of the above are good places to get long range forecasts. nws all the long range guidance for last year said snowy cold from the pro mets not armatures but nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Those dates are what we were talking about. Jan 15-20th. A nice cold stretch from the 13th for 7-10 days and then a relaxation... I saw others here as well as other vids weather guys who were in the game for as while saying end of dec then start of jan then the first week of jan now its middle of jan. it feels like last 2 years they call for the cold but it never comes till like april. then we just here if this was in jan it would of been record breaking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Must have just had a change in wind direction - temp was 28.2 about an hour ago. It's now 33.6 under clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was the one that riled up man on the mountain with the punt word and I stand by my comment. If that 16-20th low does not run under us and intensify to our North East, and act to fight off the relaxation in the pattern, we could have a good week or more period of AN temps on the heels on the cold spell. FWIW - Elliott has been saying the same. His January window is 1/16 - 1/21. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Teleconnections on the 12z EPS are mostly favorable once to this weekend through the end of the 15 day run. Translation… No punting. I think the pattern relaxes at some point....without Atlantic help, I feel the last week of Jan may be warmer than the 7-10 days before. Let's hope we make hay before hand OR that third storn does something productive pattern wise other than drift out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 In Euro we pray. The ultimate weenie false idol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Can't even remember seeing an Eps snowfall map a week out that looked like this. Idk, to go from 12z to this 12 hrs later...proceed with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6z Gfs jumping on board with Euro partially. Not a Hecs, but not far away from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 DT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Can't even remember seeing an Eps snowfall map a week out that looked like this. Idk, to go from 12z to this 12 hrs later...proceed with caution. The 12z Euro yesterday had a juiced up storm that was just a bit warm & brought ice to many in CTP & snow to western areas of CTP. The 0z solution didn’t just come out of nowhere. Long way to go, but this is is the realm of possibility with the players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: In Euro we pray. The ultimate weenie false idol. I’m saying my prayers…. I would be happy with half of this… Beautiful track…cold air in the pattern… we watch & wait…long way to go, but only a week…not in fantasy range anymore. Here is the 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs jumping on board with Euro partially. Not a Hecs, but not far away from that. Yes, good to see the 6z GFS step in the right direction for the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I think we are close to being trackable for the 16th and that low also heads straight for NE Canada which is a key in keeping our cold longer into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think we are close to being trackable for the 16th and that low also heads straight for NE Canada which is a key in keeping our cold longer into January. I Just another... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 32 with a trace of snow in the books. Already quite windy with gusts 25-30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Congrats @Wmsptwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 35 degrees this morning. Hard to get hyped about today’s event. Finally got snow on the ground and now it’s all going to get washed away. My front end snow thump today even got cut in half. Walking out in my yard I almost need my mucks. Bring on the snow next week!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just woke up, and there’s already 1.5” of new snow on the ground and it’s snowing every bit as hard as it was Saturday. Wow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Woke up to light snow and caved roads at 31 degrees. NW Cumberland county. Interesting surprise. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Just woke up, and there’s already 1.5” of new snow on the ground and it’s snowing every bit as hard as it was Saturday. Wow. Some progs suggest you may need a WSW for the next cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, pawatch said: 35 degrees this morning. Hard to get hyped about today’s event. Finally got snow on the ground and now it’s all going to get washed away. My front end snow thump today even got cut in half. Walking out in my yard I almost need my mucks. Bring on the snow next week!! The ground is definitely saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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