Central PA Winter 23/24

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I am confident you will be as well haha. Low of 33 here with some radar snow showers overnight. No evidence of anything. Seasonable week ahead, it seems. 

woke up to a coating/dusting on the grass/car topper.  

Ens guidance looks to be AOA the 10 day window for appreciable changes, so lets hope that by this weekend we are starting to crawl outta the caves and start chatting up some white love from above.  

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Did pretty well last night.

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You have had several 1-3" type snows now, right? 

[mitchnick]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[WmsptWx]

You have had several 1-3" type snows now, right? 

This is the third one this year, I think.

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[Itstrainingtime]

Just 34 for my overnight low - not sure I stay in the 30s today, it's already up to 38. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Some nice flurries a bit ago in Harrisburg.  At one point approaching flizzard status, albeit brief.  Looks like 8 inches near Edinboro was the big winner.  Onward.

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Thanks for sharing this - do you happen to have the direct link to Sterling's? That one tends to be much better for those of us east of the river. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks for sharing this - do you happen to have the direct link to Sterling's? That one tends to be much better for those of us east of the river. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[ChescoWx]

After this morning's coating of snow today should see temps struggling to escape the 30's across most areas. The week leading up to Christmas Day should be near to a bit below normal temperature wise for much of the week before rising to well above normal (normal highs near 40 degrees) with highs in the upper 40's by Christmas Day.

Records for today: High 62 (1929) / Low +1 (1951) / Rain 1.30" (1934) / Snow 15.0" (2009). That snowstorm in 2009 helped deliver 1 of the only 2 White Christmases (other 2012) we have seen in Chester County in the last 14 years.

[Bubbler86]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just 34 for my overnight low - not sure I stay in the 30s today, it's already up to 38. 

MDT has been falling slowly all morning.  They were near 40, now down to 37.  Stuck on 32 here. 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

After this morning's coating of snow today should see temps struggling to escape the 30's across most areas. The week leading up to Christmas Day should be near to a bit below normal temperature wise for much of the week before rising to well above normal (normal highs near 40 degrees) with highs in the upper 40's by Christmas Day.

Records for today: High 62 (1929) / Low +1 (1951) / Rain 1.30" (1934) / Snow 15.0" (2009). That snowstorm in 2009 helped deliver 1 of the only 2 White Christmases (other 2012) we have seen in Chester County in the last 14 years.

 

Yeah its nice to know that while we'll be under the influence of a large ridge this weekend, 2m temps are only in the 40's.  Factoring normal biases, I'd guess some might crack 50 for a day or so, but at least its no pig ridge w/ anomalous warmth.  That was my worry last week, but I'm happy to be wrong in that regard.  

[Itstrainingtime]

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT has been falling slowly all morning.  They were near 40, now down to 37.  Stuck on 32 here. 

Yep - my wife reported snow at home about an hour ago and the temp was down to 36. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep - my wife reported snow at home about an hour ago and the temp was down to 36. 

MDT has a T on their records for the day :-) 

[Bubbler86]

Rgem sticking to its guns for a rapid drop Thursday night....other suites not on board to this extent though Nam is near 20 on many areas of the LSV.  At least something of interest to watch evolve.  12 near ITT.

 

[paweather]

Nooner 35 and Flurries feels like winter. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Nooner 35 and Flurries feels like winter. 

On and off Lt snow/flurries here as well.  33 which is the high so far today.   Stayed at 32 from midnight on until we just went up a degree.   Been a while since we had a day staying near freezing. 

[Bubbler86]

12Z GFS....New Years Eve, Eve.  Paweather 540 line is near the Florida border, yet this is the extent of the cold at the surface.

 

 

[GrandmasterB]

Very few silver linings to no snow…but one is definitely the meltdowns in the New England forum. 

[ChescoWx]

I thought I would post an update on our streak of days since our last 1" snowfall. Through today it has now been 647 days or since March 12, 2022 that we last recorded 1" of snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. If we can get through January 3, 2024 without recording that much snow we will set a new record of 662 days without an inch of daily snowfall. However, for you snow lovers we will not be setting snow futility records for absolutely no measurable snow. That record will remain at the 661 days between February 23, 1972 and December 16, 1973. During that timeframe we recorded no measurable snow at all. Only trace amounts were recorded 2 times. By contrast since our last 1" snowfall here in East Nantmeal we have actually recorded measurable snow (greater than 0.25") on 9 different days. Including three such days already this season for a whopping total of 4.6" of snow!!

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I thought I would post an update on our streak of days since our last 1" snowfall. Through today it has now been 647 days or since March 12, 2022 that we last recorded 1" of snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. If we can get through January 3, 2024 without recording that much snow we will set a new record of 662 days without an inch of daily snowfall. However, for you snow lovers we will not be setting snow futility records for absolutely no measurable snow. That record will remain at the 661 days between February 23, 1972 and December 16, 1973. During that timeframe we recorded no measurable snow at all. Only trace amounts were recorded 2 times. By contrast since our last 1" snowfall here in East Nantmeal we have actually recorded measurable snow (greater than 0.25") on 9 different days. Including three such days already this season for a whopping total of 4.6" of snow!!

https://fb.watch/p1Csp1KKh-/

We may have to redefine what a plowable snow is. 

[canderson]

It’s cold. 36 with 30 mph winds still  

[MAG5035]

16 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What are your thoughts on the potential of the upcoming pattern change?

I definitely like the look of the pattern from a 500mb standpoint with the below average heights over the southern US with above in Canada, eventually progged to center west of Hudson Bay in central (and then western) Canada . We’ll eventually score something if we continue to maintain that suppressed storm track look, which is generally shown across the guidance. 

My big problem for the time being is temps. It’s going to rear it’s ugly head again with the storm next week that has been pretty consistently on guidance in that Dec 27-28ish period. Gonna try to cut but it looks like it’s going to be forced to reform on the coast. If say today’s 12z GFS scenario played out there’s no decent antecedent cold air in place with the initial low trying to drive well west and the coastal beginning to form and it’s too far displaced N for the northeasterly flow of the coastal to draw it down (similar to what just happened). That storm looks to be a part of the overall pattern reshuffle but I don’t think we’re going to have a snow threat out of it, certainly not in the Sus Valley but probably not in this part of PA either. 

Notably above average temps in Canada and X amount of the Northern US depending on the flavor of longer range model guidance (weeklies, GEFS extended) has been a constant theme. As such I don’t expect a big time arctic air intrusion probably thru at least mid month Jan. Not that we need it, but the big thing that you can see now in regular ensemble guidance is the 500 ridging shifting to western Canada by about New Years. That would at least ensure airmass source directed from Canada and not the Pac, which should get us cold enough to pair up with a storm track which has honestly been pretty favorable for us this season so far. 

[Coop_Mason]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

https://fb.watch/p1Csp1KKh-/

We may have to redefine what a plowable snow is. 

Pull up the video of the guy plowing the dusting of snow and making enough sparks to light up the street 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said:

Pull up the video of the guy plowing the dusting of snow and making enough sparks to light up the street 

That is the one.    The one I posted a couple years ago.   LSV plowable. 

[Coop_Mason]

49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is the one.    The one I posted a couple years ago.   LSV plowable. 

Yeah sparky!!   Dude yelling in the back “ a little early bro”.  Classic 

[canderson]

Why is it still blowing a gale. It was supposed to have calmed. 

[Jns2183]

This is it, definitely. We haven’t had winter since f’n 2019. 

2017-2018 38"
2018-2019 41"
2019-2020 5.1"
2020-2021 36"
2021-2022 16.4"
2022-2023 5.9"
Mean 23.73"

Snowfall climo
1970-2000
Mean 32.8"
Median 27.8
75th percentile 42.7"
25th percentile 19.6"

1980-2010
Mean 30.6"
Median 24.9"
75th percentile 41.2"
25th percentile 16.75"

1990-2020
mean 29.3"
median 22.9"
75th percentile 40"
25th percentile 14.75"

From 1990-2020 # of years with snowfall within bin

70" 2
60" 0
50" 2
40" 3
30" 4
20" 9
10" 9


So basically in last 6 years we have had 1 year at 75th percentile, 2 years in the 60th percentile, 1 year at 25th percentile, and 2 years at basically the 1st percentile.

Anyways, it's not the worst 6 year period on record anyways. Some similar periods
1928/29 to 1933/34 mean snowfall was 21.4"
1986/87 to 1991/92 mean was 24.3"

And who can forget the worst 6 years ever, 1996/97 to 2002/3 with mean of 19.3". Those 6 years had a max of 28", and 4 winters in 20" range, 2 winters at 10". That period was bookended by the greatest winter ever , 1996 with 77.6, and the 2002/3 winter with 57.7".

The last 6 years have been bad, but we've had similar in the late 80s to early 90s and worse, both in the distant past (late 1920's to early 1930's) as well as late 90's till 2002.

The massive difference between mean and median highlights our feast and famine past and present. From 1990 to 2020 only 35% of years were "above average" for snowfall. So we can expect 6-7 winters per decade to be below average while 3-4 to be above.

Now look at last 6 years. 3 years above average, 3 years below. It's just been our below years were pure famine

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[Jns2183]

Avg snowfall of all years with snow greater than mean
 
1990-2020
11 winters above mean
Avg 50.12
 
1980-2010
11 winters above mean
Avg 50.8"
 
1970-2000
12 winters above mean
Avg 51.3
 
From 1970-2020 we've had 12 winters with snowfall between 30"-40" and 11 winters greater than 40". 7 of those winters were above 50". I always used 30" as a rough carve-out between a good and not so good winter. That's a 51 year period above and we had 23 above 30".
 
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[canderson]

Get outta here with data, nerd. 

[WmsptWx]

Avg snowfall of all years with snow greater than mean
 
1990-2020
11 winters above mean
Avg 50.12
 
1980-2010
11 winters above mean
Avg 50.8"
 
1970-2000
12 winters above mean
Avg 51.3
 
From 1970-2020 we've had 12 winters with snowfall between 30"-40" and 11 winters greater than 40". 7 of those winters were above 50". I always used 30" as a rough carve-out between a good and not so good winter. That's a 51 year period above and we had 23 above 30".
 
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