Central PA Winter 23/24

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Just took a drive to Roundtop and made some snowballs.

Minuteman currently looks better than most operating days in March as far as coverage...just not enough of a base. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Working in HR Management, one of the biggest, simplest, and most important life traits that has been lost is that a lot of people no longer care to be invested in talking and acting well around others. I see this play out almost every single day. I'm amazed at how many people today don't care what others think about them. Integrity...once was a backbone of people, has vanished. 

Why is it so hard to just be a good person? 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I didn't expect to find some real snow leftover from Monday .

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Minuteman currently looks better than most operating days in March as far as coverage...just not enough of a base. 

Lol lucky for me I don't ski .I just go for the snowballs

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Lol lucky for me I don't ski .I just go for the snowballs

Who are you throwing them at?

[Dannny]

Hey all! Was wondering if anyone knows what happened to WX Disco!? The site disappeared within the last few days. Considering I just spent $300 on the membership a month ago I’m not too happy that the site is no longer. Does anyone have any info on to what happened?

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Dannny said:

Hey all! Was wondering if anyone knows what happened to WX Disco!? The site disappeared within the last few days. Considering I just spent $300 on the membership a month ago I’m not too happy that the site is no longer. Does anyone have any info on to what happened?

????

[Yardstickgozinya]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Who are you throwing them at?

My truck lol. The where actually semi dry power so they fell apart before they hit my truck and didn't show up in the pics that well. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

My truck lol. The where actually semi dry power so they fell apart before they hit my truck and didn't show up in the pics that well. 

That fake snow does not cut it.  Buffaloians feel your pain.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

That fake snow does not cut it.  Buffaloians feel your pain.

They better feel it this weekend. Lol

[NEPA MT TOP]

wxdisco servers being replaced; will be back up after new years; extra month given to those who joined. All was listed on the forum before it temp went off.

 

[canderson]

Huh we fly back Sunday afternoon to DC. Is there a real nor’easter that day? If so, sh1t.

[Jns2183]

Huh we fly back Sunday afternoon to DC. Is there a real nor’easter that day? If so, sh1t.

It will just be starting then, but take a look way up in the thread and you'll see a nice 972 low on one model.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Ruin]

 thoghts on the el nino info? mind you this wasnt just on foxweather site ive seen it on a few other sites dealing with weather  

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/when-will-el-nino-end-answer-forecast

 

FOX Weather

El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse

A climate pattern that began in June will not complete a full year. A significant pending cooldown of waters in the central and eastern Pacific will ensure that the world is heading toward a neutral status.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Ruin said:

 thoghts on the el nino info? mind you this wasnt just on foxweather site ive seen it on a few other sites dealing with weather  

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/when-will-el-nino-end-answer-forecast

 

FOX Weather

El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse

A climate pattern that began in June will not complete a full year. A significant pending cooldown of waters in the central and eastern Pacific will ensure that the world is heading toward a neutral status.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure this El Nino has been focast to end between April and June before it even started.

[PSUWhiteout70]

12 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I'm pretty sure this El Nino has been focast to end between April and June before it even started.

I believe Bastardi has been talking about this happening for some time now, showing analogs patterns from like years. We shall see. 

[Ruin]

20 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I'm pretty sure this El Nino has been focast to end between April and June before it even started.

to be fair how long does it normally take to ramp down? vs how long do we see the actually pattern change? its been like 3 years or something im tired of this lol. why I didnt buy into the long range forecasts for winter last year saying cold and snow. 

[Bubbler86]

Late nooners from blakeslee pa.  Plowable snow still on the ground and 26.

[Yardstickgozinya]

36 minutes ago, Ruin said:

to be fair how long does it normally take to ramp down? vs how long do we see the actually pattern change? its been like 3 years or something im tired of this lol. why I didnt buy into the long range forecasts for winter last year saying cold and snow. 

I Apologize, I'm not exactly sure what your asking. I have never bought into long range forcast my self. I don't invest anything emotionally until it's about 3-4 days out . I don't remember any legitimate long range forcast of cold,  or snow last winter other than one December possibility. I believe it showed up in the mid range, and was hyped on twitter, and youtube. I think you might be referring to forum and internet clown maps, and wish casting. I'm completely with you on long range forecasts being a joke. 

[Ruin]

4 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I Apologize, I'm not exactly sure what your asking. I have never bought into long range forcast my self. I don't invest anything emotionally until it's about 3-4 days out . I don't remember any legitimate long range forcast of cold,  or snow last winter other than one December possibility. I believe it showed up in the mid range, and was hyped on twitter, and youtube. I think you might be referring to forum and internet clown maps, and wish casting. I'm completely with you on long range forecasts being a joke. 

all the outlooks said colder then normal and precip higher then normal for the mid atlantic and northeast. all my local news and national were calling for it. but what im asking how long till it will actually collapse enough for us to see a pattern change storm patterns etc 

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

all the outlooks said colder then normal and precip higher then normal for the mid atlantic and northeast. all my local news and national were calling for it. but what im asking how long till it will actually collapse enough for us to see a pattern change storm patterns etc 

It's not a super Nino or a la Nina. It's a welcome enso state. Most of are best winters come from el nino and neutral states depending on where they set up and how strong they are.  Decembers typically torch during ninos and are back loaded. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

What we don't want is a Super Nino or  LA Nina.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm far from a pro. I'm sure there are others that can answer your questions much better if you haven't already overflowed there bowl of cheerios with asparagus piss.

[Yardstickgozinya]

24 minutes ago, Ruin said:

all the outlooks said colder then normal and precip higher then normal for the mid atlantic and northeast. all my local news and national were calling for it. but what im asking how long till it will actually collapse enough for us to see a pattern change storm patterns etc 

I think I now understand what your asking, but I have already added enough of my own dirty squirties to today's portajohn. 

[mitchnick]

18z Euro now has a stronger trailing vort vs a stronger primary that the 12z had. Too early to say if it will help, but the only way we could get snow would be from the trailing vort.

[Coop_Mason]

HI

 

[Blizzard of 93]

It’s good to see this on the long range GFS towards the end of the month.
It fits with some of the good looks that the ensembles have been showing recently for the late month period.

[MAG5035]

7 hours ago, PSUWhiteout70 said:

I believe Bastardi has been talking about this happening for some time now, showing analogs patterns from like years. We shall see. 

One of the big things he’s been pointing out with regards to the Nino is despite the ocean temp pattern itself indicating easily a strong Nino occurring (+1.9ºC as of 12/11 in Nino 3.4)… indexes like the SOI (southern oscillation index) and MEI (multivariate ENSO index) tell a different story.  I don’t fancy myself as an ENSO expert by any means but those indexes are utilized to try to calculate the actual strength of the ENSO event atmospherically. 

SOI values of -8 and lower are indicative of El Niño conditions being present. The values vary day to day but longer term averages typically reflect the ENSO state. 

SOURCE

According to that, the running 90 day average on that index is only right at the threshold of a Nino, while the 30 day average actually indicates ENSO neutral. So that’s a pretty big disconnect right there. Comparable strength Nino’s generally had significantly more negative values. 

Here’s the MEI values, compared to some of the other strong Nino episodes. MEI is supposed to be a more accurate representation, as it incorporates 5 different variables vs just one variable with the SOI. 

MEI Website HERE

That index isn’t even close to the biggest Ninos (83, 98, and 16) despite being a strong episode but tracking somewhat closer to the other two stronger ones (86-87 and 91-92) as well as some other winters that had weaker nino’s SST wise. Definitely interesting stuff.. but that doesn’t really clarify whether or not we’ll be snowy unfortunately. Using Harrisburg, 1986-87 had 45.9” ( solidly above average) and 1991-92 had 12.9” (turd winter). We’re still really early into this season and as pointed out previously by many…Nino Decembers are typically warmer than average whether you’re using the good or bad winter analogs. We’re still a ways out in terms of the pattern “showing it’s hand” so to speak on what kind of a Jan and February we’re looking at IMO. I’m just touching on one part of a whole bunch of other factors (NAO/AO, MJO, PNA, stratwarm, Pac pattern in the mid-latitudes EPO/WPO, etc etc). I do like the way things are starting to look going forward, but also am staying mindful that this could definitely go the other way as well. 

And yes the Nino is forecast to eventually collapse later in the spring next year (and potentially develop back into Nina by next winter) but that’s not a really new development and it’s very likely Nino conditions persist throughout the bulk of this winter. What could occur is the Nino becoming more central/west Pacific based (Aka the Modoki El Niño)  which is more supportive of the type of winter weather we’re looking for than an east based Nino. And we’ve already been seeing the waters cooling in the tropical eastern Pac (Nino 1+2). 

Off the ENSO Update issued Mon 12/11

[pasnownut]

12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Perhaps he will - that won't stop me from being respectful. I can control me, my words, my actions and no one else's. 

I gave them a similar lecture last year and you see where we are.  I wish you luck, but I know where I'm placing my bets.  Like you I try to see all of it, as its a community forum, but it's no longer funny/amusing, and the longer it goes on, the worse it will get.  Enough have tired of it.  

 

[pasnownut]

13 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

If YBY doesn't receive EAS alerts from State College, PA, you have about as much business posting to this forum as I have of posting to Penthouse forum.
 

While I'm one of a few SE'rs in the group, geographically speaking regarding Chescos involvment in our convo, he is 28 miles from my door.  KPit is 242 miles from same door.

For the record, weather/forecasts for his area are often the same as many in our SE portion of the LSV'rs, so I'll look at his info any day as it aligns w/ quite a few of us climatologically.  

I've no problem when ANYONE comes in to chat it up w/ us....dont care where you reside....BUT if your coming to troll, thats a problem...... no matter where you reside.