Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, TSG said: it's REAL funny to me how quiet the debs get once guidance start showing something positive. It only takes one bad cycle for them to return though, stay vigilant out there y'all!!! Science is not really emotional. It's not hard to be objective. People just worship models, no one or nothing can do better, and they aren't even that great if you know what you're looking at.. climo or persistence has worked better lately, don't you dare tell that the EPS or Euro weeklies are not that good lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The weeklies ARE really good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 It’s like legit exciting to be patiently awaiting a model run again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 28 minutes ago, Jebman said: The weeklies ARE really good! They basically went with an El Nino and so far it's looking like we are going opposite in the Pacific Ocean (at least through Jan 15th). I think a good model could have predicted that (because it's pattern persistence). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: We’d take it You know someone in Loudoun County would be complaining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Not that anyone cares but the NAM was lining us up for the 4th: I’ve found I’m better off completely ignoring the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 heads up DMV folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Dallas was sooo stupid. How are so many people making millions so bad at basic clock management??? 2nd and long. Already in FG range. Run twice, kick fg Detroit gets the ball no timeouts and about 45-50 seconds. Game over. The odds of converting a 1st down are low anyways. No they pass, stop clock and Detroit scores with 23 seconds when Dallas gifts them 40 seconds! The probabilities on going 75 yards in 50 seconds v 1:30 are astronomically lower. You can’t throw underneath the prevent and take 15 yards at a time if you only have 50 seconds. Just brain dead management there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: No they pass, stop clock and Detroit scores with 23 seconds when Dallas gifts them 40 seconds! The probabilities on going 75 yards in 50 seconds v 1:30 are astronomically lower. You can’t throw underneath the prevent and take 15 yards at a time if you only have 50 seconds. Just brain dead management there. Then Det going for 2 when they have 10yds to go (which is like a 30% probability). This is after they didn't go for it 4th and goal from the 4 when the game was 10-10. That's why it's hard to watch football: There is a site called advancedNFLstats and it calculates the odds of everything, and basically teams are almost always wrong not going for it on 4th down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dallas was sooo stupid. How are so many people making millions so bad at basic clock management??? 2nd and long. Already in FG range. Run twice, kick fg Detroit gets the ball no timeouts and about 45-50 seconds. Game over. The odds of converting a 1st down are low anyways. No they pass, stop clock and Detroit scores with 23 seconds when Dallas gifts them 40 seconds! The probabilities on going 75 yards in 50 seconds v 1:30 are astronomically lower. You can’t throw underneath the prevent and take 15 yards at a time if you only have 50 seconds. Just brain dead management there. Terrible clock management but even worse calls by DET on the multiple penalties and still going for the conversion. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dallas was sooo stupid. How are so many people making millions so bad at basic clock management??? 2nd and long. Already in FG range. Run twice, kick fg Detroit gets the ball no timeouts and about 45-50 seconds. Game over. The odds of converting a 1st down are low anyways. No they pass, stop clock and Detroit scores with 23 seconds when Dallas gifts them 40 seconds! The probabilities on going 75 yards in 50 seconds v 1:30 are astronomically lower. You can’t throw underneath the prevent and take 15 yards at a time if you only have 50 seconds. Just brain dead management there. Yeah they were extremely lucky to come out of this with a win. This smelled like the way they usually screw up in the WC or divisional round, lol (Can we forget the time running out a couple years ago? Haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Terrible clock management but even worse calls by DET on the multiple penalties and still going for the conversion. Yikes. it does feel like the officiating in the NFL is becoming atrocious. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The best and worst of times on this board are when a potential event is sniffed out on one or more models several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 hours ago, pazzo83 said: it does feel like the officiating in the NFL is becoming atrocious. Oh it’s more than a feeling haha. (Cue Boston song) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 hours ago, nj2va said: Terrible clock management but even worse calls by DET on the multiple penalties and still going for the conversion. Yikes. The officials completely effed up on the initial attempt. That conversion should have stood. That being said, after that debacle just kick the damn extra point and take it to OT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah they were extremely lucky to come out of this with a win. This smelled like the way they usually screw up in the WC or divisional round, lol (Can we forget the time running out a couple years ago? Haha) I mean you no longer need to watch a full NFL game. You only need to watch the last 5 minutes when defenses go into the prevent. The last team who possesses the ball usually wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The officials completely effed up on the initial attempt. That conversion should have stood. That being said, after that debacle just kick the damn extra point and take it to OT. I agree. If it goes to OT, I most likely win my 8 leg parlay. I hate you Dan Campbell. He of all people should know better since half his team was suspended for gambling this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Lot of action in the long range thread given we cancelled winter yesterday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lot of action in the long range thread given we cancelled winter yesterday morning. It’s a Christmas miracle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Gonna be a long week or a short one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Oh no, even if it all goes to shit today it will be a long week. They’ve had a taste of digital blue - the die is cast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Oh no, even if it all goes to shit today it will be a long week. They’ve had a taste of digital blue - the die is cast If lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 People are now looking at squirrels and how geese fly for signs. What does it mean when the dog shits on the carpet in the living room? Or in my case a Guinea pig pees on me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, H2O said: People are now looking at squirrels and how geese fly for signs. What does it mean when the dog shits on the carpet in the living room? Or in my case a Guinea pig pees on me? In some parts of the world, a Guinea pig peeing on you is believed to bring good fortune. You should encourage it daily. Make it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In some parts of the world, a Guinea pig peeing on you is believed to bring good fortune. You should encourage it daily. Make it snow I will take one for the team. And everyone can thank me for doing my part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Already trying too hard to dissect the models and find negatives for a specific threat 6-7 days away 0z was no more correct than 6z and if you say trends then what was the trend from 12z to 0z yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Science is not really emotional. It's not hard to be objective. People just worship models, no one or nothing can do better, and they aren't even that great if you know what you're looking at.. climo or persistence has worked better lately, don't you dare tell that the EPS or Euro weeklies are not that good lol. That’s easy for a robot to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 We’ve reached the point in the winter season where orographic upslope enhancement for a 950 ft hill in Carroll County is being discussed. An annual tradition. Bow down to the mountain top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: If lol Tough but fair. I amend to “when”. doubling up on the long hikes this weekend- about to step off on an 8-miler in and around Susquehanna state park - I will listen for the cries of anguish in the general air around 11:25… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Tough but fair. I amend to “when”. doubling up on the long hikes this weekend- about to step off on an 8-miler in and around Susquehanna state park - I will listen for the cries of anguish in the general air around 11:25… Should be lots of eagles! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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