December Banter 2023

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Stratosphere warming is happening

https://ibb.co/MRc03C6

That was basically my theorem, that El Nino and -QBO would give us good snowfall/cold Winter periods. I don't see why that can't be achieved. -PNA is pesky but it might change at the coldest Winter time, and our precip has been well above avg since the Summer: https://ibb.co/r5k2sc6   It might also help to keep up with Natural Gas price, Lots of things are happening that we don't know about. 

[psuhoffman]

I just noticed something in my data that has bugged me for a while and I think now I know why.  The Feb storm in 1978, Westminster only recorded 7" but based on other reports in the area it should have been closer to 10".  It made it hard for me to estimate what my area got since it was incongruous with the expected gradient and created a huge difference between the stations on either side of me.  I don't know why I never noticed it before but the snow depth reported increased from 4" before the storm to 13" the day after.  The only way that is possible is if at least 9" fell from the storm.  Probably more to account for compaction.  So their report of 7" is simply an error. 

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a lot loaded in this...

First of all my post was not directed at you.  Because I know where you and I disagree, and its simply about expectations and what we find acceptable.  And that is ok.  I don't begrudge you what you prefer.  But that is not true of everyone.  There were definitely some posts to the effect of "that pattern can be good".  And we've heard that numerous times over the last 7 years and it just isn't true.  Now I guess we could argue over what "good" is but my bar is an above avg snowfall season.  If your definition of good is lower that is fine but we are arguing apples and oranges then.  

 

But I did not use 40" I used 25".  And I only cut it off there because I was limited to 20 seasons.  I could lower it to 20" and it wouldn't change the pattern look or my point at all!  

Thank you this was exactly how I feel and better than I could have articulated it.  

We can have this debate.  It's an interesting one to me, but probably not to most so I didn't want to reply in the main thread.  Why is 25" at BWI in a -AO Nino unrealistic?  That is actually below average snowfall for a nino!  Discount the "nino" part and 25" has happened once every 2.9 years on average in Baltimore!  So over the longer period of record I am talking about something that should happen about 1 in 3 years.  

The next part isn't really "fair" to you but this is a larger forum wide discussion, not a personal one, but there are 2 threads of thought going on simultaneously here.  I am both analyzing trying to get a big snowfall season, but also trying to prove my point that I believe our snowfall climo has degraded more than "some" want to admit.  You can't have it both ways.  Not you personally but I mean they can't try to argue I'm crazy and our snow climo is fine and its just been bad luck...then someone else say its not fair when I hold us to the same snow standard and expectations we have had historically.  I agree with you that its likely our normal is radically lower than the numbers I am quoting but that kinda proves my other point and many are not ready to concede that yet!  Can't have it both ways.  

Lastly, there are likely so personal preferences here that lead to this conflict in expectations.  One is my location v yours.  Some of the best seasons for 95 and especially NW of there aren't so good for you.  Your location near the coast makes a progressive wave gradient pattern actually more appealing.  It eliminates the boundary layer temp issues that become an issue in coastals and blocking patterns.  But for places like me those patters are absolute utter BS crap on a stick.  They are mostly SWFE so I lose the upslope that makes my area jack in almost any coastal storm.  And they are unlikely to be storms that hit in strings so they never lead to an above avg season for the whole region.  Your area can luck into an above avg season with one or two hits because your avg is so low but on the whole those types of patterns will never be a region wide big snow year.  Given my location why would I want that type of pattern?  I will never get anywhere close to avg snowfall in that kind of look.  Neither will IAD or Winchester or anyone NW of the fall line.  

Lastly, its about what I like to track.  It's not just about snow to me its also the fun of the chase and tracking.  Progressive waves in a gradient pattern suck.  They are no fun to track.  You can't really identify a discrete threat from any kind of range and they are really a fluke thread the needle thing.  And in the short range they are boring.  They aren't dynamic events.  There is no deform band to try to nail down, no changover line to get right, no thunder snow to root for.  They are just awful from a tracking stand point.  

You are entitled to any expectations you want.  I don't mind your expectations.  But no I won't ever be happy if the best we can do is root to get lucky once in a while in a progressive wave pattern.  That is no fun for me on any level.  Frankly if we come to the point where I accept that's what its come to and the time of getting epic periods from a -NAO eastern trough pattern are gone for good...I will likely just stop actively tracking.  I spent the good part of two winters in NC many years ago and I didn't bother to track.  Ironically they got more snow when I was there those years than we have here recently, but I didn't waste my time tracking weather in hopes of getting one or two random snows.  I knew how unlikely it was to really get much snow so I didn't waste my time.  I will come to that point here pretty soon if things don't turn around.  I am already not tracking nearly as much as I used to.  I never stay up late anymore for a model run.  I sometimes go a while day without doing much analysis myself and just check the posts here.  I am already starting to lose interest.  

ETA:  I don't need to have an lot of snow every season to stay interested...not even every few years...but if we can't get a truly snowy period or an HECS level storm (one or the other) at least a couple times a decade then I'll lose interest and find other things to occupy my time until I can move somewhere that does.  

I know what's required/works best for the coastal plain, just as you do for you area. The contributions I make in the main thread are not with any sort of bias based on my expectations or what's best for my yard though. That usually only comes up on the periphery in the context of other posts that have been made- such as the posts suggesting certain patterns are unworkable/game over etc. Some folks key in on that verbiage and the takeaway is, here we go again- another shit winter. I do my best to provide objective analysis of the patterns/possible storm opportunities for our region in general, and try to keep a positive vibe. I don't need to make posts about bad looks/degrading patterns, etc, because whatever we end up with, there will be opportunities to track. In the end everyone can evaluate based on ground truth vs their expectations.

[North Balti Zen]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

You mean the one chuck predicted 50 inches for Dulles?

You said NO ONE expected this and a quick check of that thread shows that is bullshit. A lot of us went low. Just because you and others went high doesn’t excuse spending weeks melting down threads. Setting aside AGW talk, the idea a nino might be disappointing is not new - it has certainly happened before in pre-AGW concern years. 
 

maybe we hit a big storm and many bust low - I sure hope so. But stop acting like no one saw this coming. Many of us guessed that a nino in a warmer base state doesn’t automatically mean big snow. Again, for all your caterwauling, you at least saw a big snow in January 2022. Those of us to your north sure didn’t. Many of us on this board are going on since January 2016 without seeing a five plus inch storm. And for the most part we are not the ones melting down the long range threads. Even maestro has made positive changes. Maybe you can do the same courtesy?

[Jebman]

Don't look now but it's snowing HARD at Palisades Tahoe!

Check out the 8200 foot Scope! It's REALLY comin down!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades

[Jebman]

It's 28/27 in Buda right now. Lots frost on grasses.

[nw baltimore wx]

The 6z gfs gives us some hope, but I’m praying that it isn’t the high water mark for the weekend model runs. Reading negativity, regardless of whether it’s warranted or not, is getting old. Over 700 days now and still counting…

[aldie 22]

Has anyone ever known someone in their life who no matter what you say they almost always tend to have a counter point? They simply cannot accept what another person is saying as correct or accurate they ALWAYS need to interject their point of view in a countering way. It's both fascinating and infuriating especially when you call them on it their response is always the same....I'll let you fill in that blank.

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Has anyone ever known someone in their life who no matter what you say they almost always tend to have a counter point? They simply cannot accept what another person is saying as correct or accurate they ALWAYS need to interject their point of view in a countering way. It's both fascinating and infuriating especially when you call them on it their response is always the same....I'll let you fill in that blank.

Bro, if you’re going to question me, use the thread that I created for any such discussion 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Bro, if you’re going to question me, use the thread that I created for any such discussion 

You call it questioning I'm simply keeping it real I'm sorry you don't want to hear the truth...ok...everything is fine carry on 

[dailylurker]

There's a hand full of people here that don't sleep. How do you guys (you know who you are) post 24 hours a day. I can get a PSU update randomly at 2 am or a CAPE LR outlook at 4 am lol. I love it. But it cracks me up. Thank goodness for the internet for bringing weirdos together.

[mappy]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You've reached a healthy point with this...I kinda envy you, lol I'd love to get to the point where it not snowing in winter no longer bothers me in the slightest! (Although recently I am finding not dwelling on it too much to be helpful...the more you expose your mind to it the worse it gets! I'm trying, but days like to today show me I've still got a ways to go)

It’s just snow. Not worth the wild swings of doom and gloom, or the hours spent over analyzing ens for 10+ days pattern changes. A lot more in life to spend the time and energy on imo.

[Chris78]

Looks like winter is canceled now till the middle of February? 

If we make it through this winter snowless BwI would be over 1000 days not recordng an inch of snow.

Now that would be something.

i think this board might implode lol.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Looks like winter is canceled now till the middle of February? 

If we make it through this winter snowless BwI would be over 1000 days not recordng an inch of snow.

Now that would be something.

i think this board might implode lol.

I bump the futility thread each winter until I don’t have to. Was hoping to not have to have had bumped it this year but…already three bumps in.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I bump the futility thread each winter until I don’t have to. Was hoping to not have to have had bumped it this year but…already three bumps in.

Lately here our climate does feel more like Charlotte lol.

I have no idea if it's here to stay or just a rough period for cold weather but +8 anomalies are the norm now for December.

My yard is a swampy mess and some parts of it could be mowed lol.

I ussually make my last mow of the season shorter but what's the point anymore lol.

It's kind of crazy how few nights we've had below 32

[nj2va]

Live look at the LR thread 

[aldie 22]

I like to describe my experience in the winter lovers weather community like this. You know how you have a piece of cuticle on your finger and you twist it and it hurts a little but also feels good then you discover a group of people who feel the same but then you also discover some of them don't stop at the cuticle...they rip entire chunks of skin off and keep ripping and ripping and one day you realize...some of you motherfuckers are weird as shit....yeah...that.

[Prestige Worldwide]

January 2050- it’s been 20 years officially since anyone in the mid Atlantic received an inch of snow.  AI has totally replaced most things including  meteorologists- no one seems to care if the hi is 65 or 70 on New Years Day.  The EV snowmobile business has gone belly up- Elon musk is selling lot/home/airfare packages for Mars starting at $100 million.  Alaska has closed its borders to all including American citizens as it is now the most populous state in the Union.  Crypto is now the only currency in the world- instead of being pegged to the dollar everything is pegged to a Shiba Inu token.   Lebron James at 66 is still player/coach for the Lakers- but Bronny James III  is the league MVP.  Cowboy fans are still obnoxious even though their last Super Bowl victory was 1996.  And finally if you had bought a share of apple stock when it went public in 1980 and reinvested all divys and splits you would now be a gazillionaire!

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Live look at the LR thread 

I think I need a break. The Bob Chill variety.

[dailylurker]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think I need a break. The Bob Chill variety.

Don't. We need you lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Don't. We need you lol

lol I'm not going anywhere. I just do my thing, and read the posts I find value adding.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol we know dude.

I would just like to see some effing snow lol.

It feels like it's been forever.

I just told my wife the other day I don't remember what it's like to have snow on the ground at night when it makes everything so bright out. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I would just like to see some effing snow lol.

It feels like it's been forever.

I just told my wife the other day I don't remember what it's like to have snow on the ground at night when it makes everything so bright out. 

I get it. I am 'hunting' snow chances. Don't care if its a squirrel or a moose. All good.

[snowfan]

Please put him on a pitch count. 

[H2O]

[mattie g]

Just got back from three days at Wisp with four other families. Tapped out for that time and just kept busy and happy, even if it was 75 and pissing down rain on the mountain when we got there. Good thing is that it started snowing last night and we woke up to 1-2” on our cars this morning.

Anyways…did I miss anything interesting?

[WVclimo]

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Just got back from three days at Wisp with four other families. Tapped out for that time and just kept busy and happy, even if it was 75 and pissing down rain on the mountain when we got there. Good thing is that it started snowing last night and we woke up to 1-2” on our cars this morning.

Anyways…did I miss anything interesting?

Some models started showing the possibility of N. Pacific ridging in the long-range, which should effectively end any chance we have of seeing a good winter.  Also, it might snow on the 7th.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Just got back from three days at Wisp with four other families. Tapped out for that time and just kept busy and happy, even if it was 75 and pissing down rain on the mountain when we got there. Good thing is that it started snowing last night and we woke up to 1-2” on our cars this morning.

Anyways…did I miss anything interesting?

Just some conversations about goose migration patterns. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Mods really need to consider adding 2 more reaction emojis....a vomit and an eggplant. The sad face doesn't convey a post or map that makes someone sick to their stomach. And the weenie emoji, well, that doesn't always represent our true feelings towards some 'members' at times. Thank you for your consideration.

[WxUSAF]

As a penn state fan, it’s just remarkable how bad Franklin and Allar are in big games.