December 2023 General Discussion

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Quite a stormy pattern taking place down there, might even be able to go ENH tomorrow for Central FL. How often do you get 1040 MB highs in mid December with temps in low 50's here? 

Yea, it seems El Nino is definitly flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec.

[Brian D]

Moderate rainfall in progress this morning. This is really needed. It's soaking in just fine.

[nwohweather]

48 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea, it seems El Nino is definitely flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec.

That's how it was while I lived in Charleston. Played an unreal amount of golf through the winter months down there because of how dry it was, greens were excellent to put on

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, rainsucks said:

I can def see this December surpassing both 1881 and 2015 for warmth actually, depending on the location.

I should have clarified that I meant locally, Detroit. Further west (upper midwest, northern plains) may be different. 

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I should have clarified that I meant locally, Detroit. Further west (upper midwest, northern plains) may be different. 

Whats the lowest amount of snow Detroit has seen in a winter? Im wondering if Toronto can break the 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 seasons records of under 16-20" 

So far Toronto has seen about 4" 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

2 hours ago, Brian D said:

Moderate rainfall in progress this morning. This is really needed. It's soaking in just fine.

Crazy, how often are soils frost free in mid-December up that way? 
 

Models are trending drier here now, putting the heaviest axis of precip to my NW

[Brian D]

17 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Crazy, how often are soils frost free in mid-December up that way? 
 

Models are trending drier here now, putting the heaviest axis of precip to my NW

That really depends on late Nov-early Dec temps, and snow cover. Last year we had so much snow early, that frost wasn't an issue either. It's not an uncommon thing. When you have sd's into neg temps overnight more regular, the frost goes deeper quicker, unless the snowpack is robust. There may be some frost in the wooded areas, but temps, and lack of snow cover this year probably have kept the frost from going down much. And I wouldn't be out on any ice today.

[TheClimateChanger]

Up to at least 54 at Milwaukee, which would be good for 3rd warmest (tied) on today's date. Yesterday was also tied for 3rd warmest for that date. Another degree would move today into second place. But look at #1, wow! Crazy two-day torch two years ago.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Whats the lowest amount of snow Detroit has seen in a winter? Im wondering if Toronto can break the 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 seasons records of under 16-20" 

So far Toronto has seen about 4" 

1936-37 with 12.9". So far Detroit is at 2.4". The last time we saw under 20" was 17.1" in 1968-69. It's a tall order to talk about futility so early, as the average last measurable snowfall is 4 months away.

[mississaugasnow]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1936-37 with 12.9". So far Detroit is at 2.4". The last time we saw under 20" was 17.1" in 1968-69. It's a tall order to talk about futility so early, as the average last measurable snowfall is 4 months away.

Ya, just takes one storm to pretty much get rid of a chance. I enjoy all records though so I wouldnt mind breaking it if were going to have a bad winter 

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Up to at least 54 at Milwaukee, which would be good for 3rd warmest (tied) on today's date. Yesterday was also tied for 3rd warmest for that date. Another degree would move today into second place. But look at #1, wow! Crazy two-day torch two years ago.

 

 

yeah with a million severe weather reports, 2 years ago today! Ouch!

Up to 58 degrees here, with dew point of 28, not too much wind.

I am starting to believe I'm back in Colorado with wintertime warm days. It's a blue sky with some cirrus clouds, much like a lot of ridge-days in Colorado. I'm walking outside, thinking I'll see a lenticular cloud over Longmont or something, then I remember I'm not there.

Thanks, Mr. El Nino!

 

 

to commemorate our really nice day--

[Chinook]

basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine

[weatherbo]

Nothing lasts forever
And we both know hearts can change

And it's hard to hold a candle
In the cold November December Rain

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine

As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities...

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities...

Sure, rain.

[Stevo6899]

21 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Sure, rain.

As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities..

[Chinook]

24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities..

yeah, no cold air mass to really work with. No cold air mass to power up that ever-elusive "cold conveyor belt," one of my favorite terms.

[cyclone77]

7 hours ago, Chinook said:

basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine

The infamous Roger Smith triple phaser.

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The infamous Roger Smith triple phaser.

..enters March '93

[RogueWaves]

NYE and ongoing across the lower lakes.. 

Phantasy storms can happen. Can't they?

[Brian D]

20 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Up to at least 54 at Milwaukee, which would be good for 3rd warmest (tied) on today's date. Yesterday was also tied for 3rd warmest for that date. Another degree would move today into second place. But look at #1, wow! Crazy two-day torch two years ago.

 

 

Yeah, that was a strong surge of warm air from the SW. Records fell handily across our SW sub that day. Here's the map.

[Brian D]

What a wet couple days, such a waste of potential snowfall. Could have had a robust snowpack with this one, but...... Oh well. precip much needed with 1.31" so far, and still coming down. 1.56" is avg for the month, so we are right there with that.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

NYE and ongoing across the lower lakes.. 

Phantasy storms can happen. Can't they?

No, they died in 2015

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, just takes one storm to pretty much get rid of a chance. I enjoy all records though so I wouldnt mind breaking it if were going to have a bad winter 

My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come.

[Frog Town]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come.

I love your optimism.  Hoping for a turnaround in early January.  

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I love your optimism.  Hoping for a turnaround in early January.  

Thanks. Although I don't consider it optimism or a stretch to say it's too early to discuss snowfall futility when we have over 85% of our seasonal snowfall statistically to come. Decembers stink this year was seen a mile away and the hope all along was hoping for a few timely threaded needles. But strong nino climo in Dec plus a hostile pacific made a shit December a given. The remainder of the cold season after new years, in my opinion, will be much more dependent on storm tracks and what not rather than worrying about no cold air.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I love your optimism.  Hoping for a turnaround in early January.  

To add to this, around this time in 2005 and 2016 we were enjoying a postcard perfect Christmas season full of snow and cold. What happened after New Year's each of those years sucked. Weather patterns do change

[mississaugasnow]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come.

Interesting that your average to date is so low. Torontos is already 10" by mid December. Losing December puts Toronto in a big hole since its essentially tied with January and February as the snowiest (10-12" each month) March and November average 4-6" and under 2" in April 

So with models showing nothing next two weeks, it puts Toronto in almost guaranteed below average snow year. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Interesting that your average to date is so low. Torontos is already 10" by mid December. Losing December puts Toronto in a big hole since its essentially tied with January and February as the snowiest (10-12" each month) March and November average 4-6" and under 2" in April 

So with models showing nothing next two weeks, it puts Toronto in almost guaranteed below average snow year. 

Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms.

Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5

[mississaugasnow]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms.

Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5

30 year average. 

Torontos 

Nov-3.5", Dec- 9.5", Jan- 11.4", Feb- 11" Mar-6.3" Apr-2" 

Interesting to see that Toronto seems to start a bit earlier and stabilizes, while you guys rocket up and then we both finish March and April near identical. 

 

My apologies about saying near 10" in mid December. Actually writing out the averages I guess it's actually about 8.5" at this time.