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December 2023 General Discussion


michsnowfreak
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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Rumblings of a colder (MJO) and snowier (LR GFSh*t) look from around Christmas and thru the holidays. Less Grinchy anyways.

Not sure I buy that yet. much more promising in January and February still, but i'm not sure about Christmas week.

 

Today was actually colder than avg. But ZZZ.

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3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I guess things always seem better when you've hit rock bottom.  

 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure I buy that yet. much more promising in January and February still, but i'm not sure about Christmas week.

 

Today was actually colder than avg. But ZZZ.

Dec 2015 was a dry weenie roaster from the 1st thru the 17th, then we got 2" and 2 cold days followed by another dry roaster until the SLEET storm on the 28th which was a nice reward for all the suffering. Just shows things can sneak up even in a roast-fest of a December.

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

 

Dec 2015 was a dry weenie roaster from the 1st thru the 17th, then we got 2" and 2 cold days followed by another dry roaster until the SLEET storm on the 28th which was a nice reward for all the suffering. Just shows things can sneak up even in a roast-fest of a December.

Someone who is into every stat imaginable for the area, I can assure you that everything and anything is possible. A warm december does not mean it won't snow. Likewise, I'm confident in a much colder January and February, but that does not guarantee a lot of snow (of course even if we do get the dreaded CAD we have the lakes on our side). I don't think this December will come close to Dec 1881 or 2015 warmth, but it will certainly blend right in with the other mild decembers of strong ninos. Really nothing you can do but just ride the roller coaster that is the weather.

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Someone who is into every stat imaginable for the area, I can assure you that everything and anything is possible. A warm december does not mean it won't snow. Likewise, I'm confident in a much colder January and February, but that does not guarantee a lot of snow (of course even if we do get the dreaded CAD we have the lakes on our side). I don't think this December will come close to Dec 1881 or 2015 warmth, but it will certainly blend right in with the other mild decembers of strong ninos. Really nothing you can do but just ride the roller coaster that is the weather.

however you can cope man

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Should push 50 in Minneapolis today. Record high for the date is 55 from 1998, we have an outside chance of hitting it.
 

I was just a kid in Chicagoland on 12/14/1998 with no idea what I was in store for a little over two weeks later. 

I was (no longer a kid) living in S. Bend and yeah, one of the all-time classic Midwestern flip-a-switch from mild to wild winter periods in history. Nevermind Chicago and mby with the big bliz. DTW sitting at 24" OTG by 1/13 is as mind-boggling as it gets.

328768738_1999-01-13SnowDepthzoom.png.2a68a2d50f109d96fdeefb1273ec8c88.png   

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..and here we go again with the phase-tease. Will this be the "3rd times the charm" storm? If so, I sure hope somehow it can get some cold air pulled in just a bit sooner. Prolly just a fluke run like b4 anyways, lol

DTX

Still, the exact timing of the infusion of cold air and
position of the deformation axis remains uncertain as we sort out
the interaction of the 3 strong upper level waves/troughs
(Missouri/northern Florida/Central Canada).

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44 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I was (no longer a kid) living in S. Bend and yeah, one of the all-time classic Midwestern flip-a-switch from mild to wild winter periods in history. Nevermind Chicago and mby with the big bliz. DTW sitting at 24" OTG a by 1/13 is as mind-boggling as it gets.

328768738_1999-01-13SnowDepthzoom.png.2a68a2d50f109d96fdeefb1273ec8c88.png   

I was a kid living in Indiana, but I do remember this storm.  A semi-truck full of milk couldn't make it down our road due to drifting, tried to turn around in our driveway and got stuck.  My Dad knew that if we didn't get it out, it would be there for days.  I remember using hay and shingles from the barn under the tires for traction.  It worked, thankfully.  I also remember the snow hanging around otg until March that year.  This storm is probably responsible to a degree for me living in the UP.

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I was (no longer a kid) living in S. Bend and yeah, one of the all-time classic Midwestern flip-a-switch from mild to wild winter periods in history. Nevermind Chicago and mby with the big bliz. DTW sitting at 24" OTG by 1/13 is as mind-boggling as it gets.

328768738_1999-01-13SnowDepthzoom.png.2a68a2d50f109d96fdeefb1273ec8c88.png   

This was my favorite winter storm of all time. I was 13, living in Elkhart, IN and vividly remember watching the snow pile up throughout the day. It was incredible. A sea of white. There was so much snow the plastic roof over the backyard patio caved in.

Then I got one of the worst stomach bugs I've ever had and watched the Packers lose to the Niners in the playoffs.

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33 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

This was my favorite winter storm of all time. I was 13, living in Elkhart, IN and vividly remember watching the snow pile up throughout the day. It was incredible. A sea of white. There was so much snow the plastic roof over the backyard patio caved in.

Then I got one of the worst stomach bugs I've ever had and watched the Packers lose to the Niners in the playoffs.

Minus the stomach bug, this sounds glorious. Tons of snow, packers losing

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In a brief change from the mild and quiet nothingness that's typified this month, a PV lobe will bring a respectable (by December 2023 standards) shot of cold air and wind for Monday-Monday night.

The Euro and EPS suggest a decent LES response with inversion heights climbing to around 700 mb, so could see some accums into the Indiana and Michigan lake effect belts. While the temps won't be anything to write home about, the wind and seasonable cold combo will certainly feel unpleasant coming off the mild stretch we've had.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Someone who is into every stat imaginable for the area, I can assure you that everything and anything is possible. A warm december does not mean it won't snow. Likewise, I'm confident in a much colder January and February, but that does not guarantee a lot of snow (of course even if we do get the dreaded CAD we have the lakes on our side). I don't think this December will come close to Dec 1881 or 2015 warmth, but it will certainly blend right in with the other mild decembers of strong ninos. Really nothing you can do but just ride the roller coaster that is the weather.

I can def see this December surpassing both 1881 and 2015 for warmth actually, depending on the location.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

In a brief change from the mild and quiet nothingness that's typified this month, a PV lobe will bring a respectable (by December 2023 standards) shot of cold air and wind for Monday-Monday night.

The Euro and EPS suggest a decent LES response with inversion heights climbing to around 700 mb, so could see some accums into the Indiana and Michigan lake effect belts. While the temps won't be anything to write home about, the wind and seasonable cold combo will certainly feel unpleasant coming off the mild stretch we've had.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Lol, a PV lobe that brings us down to merely average. That's actually pretty sad in a way

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It is looking like 0.50-0.75” of very cold rain Friday night/Saturday. Might cause minor flooding with the ground being frozen. The Euro and Canadian models are trying to switch things over to snow here and potentially get interesting with accumulations, but my gut says it’ll be white rain at best.

Duluth and areas just south will get snow and maybe salvage a white Christmas? 

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14 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Record high of 53 today in Negaunee, breaking the old record of 50 set back in 1998.  Snow mostly gone here at my place. Weird.

I remember a couple mild overall Nov/Dec with not much snow until Christmas break back when I was at MTU.  Looking at the chart you posted they must have gotten the snow just before Christmas as it showed white on the pines.   Coming back after New Years was exciting as there was finally snow on the ground for cross country skiing.  Back then Mt Ripley didn't have snow makers so it wasn't able to open until January!  

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18 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

This was my favorite winter storm of all time. I was 13, living in Elkhart, IN and vividly remember watching the snow pile up throughout the day. It was incredible. A sea of white. There was so much snow the plastic roof over the backyard patio caved in.

Then I got one of the worst stomach bugs I've ever had and watched the Packers lose to the Niners in the playoffs.

Excluding my MTU years (i.e. just living in SE MI).  This was definitely a top 5 snow event/periods.  This 2 week period in SE MI was truly remarkable!! :mapsnow:

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On 12/13/2023 at 12:24 PM, Stevo6899 said:

It's interesting that it's gonna be avg or slightly below avg temp wise down in sw Florida. Having lived there the past 4 winters, it's been normal for temps to be in the 80s for weeks in djf. It's just odd to see temps above avg in metro detroit, in mid/upper 40s, while at the same time it's barely cracking 70 down in south florida. 

Quite a stormy pattern taking place down there, might even be able to go ENH tomorrow for Central FL. How often do you get 1040 MB highs in mid December with temps in low 50's here? 

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