Brian D Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 14 hours ago, rainsucks said: I don’t think we see a significant, long-lasting pattern change to colder occur this month due to MJO influence, but we’ll see. No, it won't be long term, just a few days of significant cold in the mix. A more significant cold pattern won't show up until late Jan into Feb. I put my thoughts down in the winter thread, but just to remind folks: 1st half of Dec seasonable/warmer. 2nd half seasonable/colder. Jan will be mostly seasonable/warmer. Late Jan thru most of Feb will be seasonable/colder with late Feb turning seasonable/warmer. March....hmmm.... I guess a good word for that month would be flippant. Not unlike some posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 27 minutes ago, Brian D said: No, it won't be long term, just a few days of significant cold in the mix. A more significant cold pattern won't show up until late Jan into Feb. I put my thoughts down in the winter thread, but just to remind folks: 1st half of Dec seasonable/warmer. 2nd half seasonable/colder. Jan will be mostly seasonable/warmer. Late Jan thru most of Feb will be seasonable/colder with late Feb turning seasonable/warmer. March....hmmm.... I guess a good word for that month would be flippant. Not unlike some posters here. We are due for a significant run of above normal in March and April. That has been absent for last 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 18z GFS was a little bit of everything bad if you want snow. Some timely suppression sandwiched by rain events. Yuck.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: We are due for a significant run of above normal in March and April. That has been absent for last 10 years. April maybe, but 2020-2022 all featured warm Marches, so not a bad run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 April maybe, but 2020-2022 all featured warm Marches, so not a bad run.It’s snowed more in April last few years than December. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: We are due for a significant run of above normal in March and April. That has been absent for last 10 years. For April, yeah, even tho there was record warmth in the midst of the month last time. It ended split between W & E sub. The last 2 March's have been split between W & E and N & S sub, as well. March 20 & 21 were pretty warm. March has been tending back n forth, with April's staying cooler. If anything, we are due for a warmer April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 For April, yeah, even tho there was record warmth in the midst of the month last time. It ended split between W & E sub. The last 2 March's have been split between W & E and N & S sub, as well. March 20 & 21 were pretty warm. March has been tending back n forth, with April's staying cooler. If anything, we are due for a warmer April.I think I lump March with April in my head. And April has stunk for a long time so I agree with you. There have been some decent March’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Prelim data in for Nov, and looks pretty avg. May go up a tick or two when more comes in, but pretty avg with a warmer W sub, and cooler E sub. Trend has dropped in recent years after a strong spike up starting in the late 90's into the early 2010's. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 For the Fall season we end up on the warmer side for 3rd year in row. Notice the 3 year runs since 2012. 3 avg/cooler, then 3 warmer, then 3 avg/cooler, and 3 warmer. Place your bets for next Fall? 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 GFS keeps us comfortably AN but thankfully gives us a nice dry stretch for Chicago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Still thinking 60 on Friday for MKE. Should be a really nice day and help alleviate the winter blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 After morning flurries, the sun peeked out a few times in the afternoon for the first time in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/5/2023 at 5:10 PM, DocATL said: 18z GFS was a little bit of everything bad if you want snow. Some timely suppression sandwiched by rain events. Yuck. . Isn't that par for the course for your neck of the woods in a normal winter though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Still thinking 60 on Friday for MKE. Should be a really nice day and help alleviate the winter blues. HRRR has MKE barely tagging 50 on that day, which seems hard to believe. Think the model has a severe cold bias these days, which is strange considering it had performed fairly well in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Even though the main storm crapped the bed we at least should get some needed rain tomorrow night. Looks like another half inch is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 51 for the high today, so we fell short of the record of 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Very classic strong El Niño like pattern continues the next couple weeks. Pretty much things are going as most expected. Next thing to watch is SSW events. This where I believe things become interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Isn't that par for the course for your neck of the woods in a normal winter though? Sorry, I live in the western suburbs of Chicago now. I guess I should change my handle.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 A soupy 36 this morning with around 3 inches of snow left otg. Piss poor start to winter for sure. This area running close to 30 inches below normal in snowfall. Had received over 50 inches by this time last year. Pic from last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 MKE beginning today at 46 should allow 60 to be realized as long as we can maintain sunshine and good mixing. This is a top shelf December day. Palm tree weather is back! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 May get a little thunder around here later this evening. Might be the highlight of the month the way it's going lol. Models show 0.5-0.7" of rain for the QCA this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 11 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: MKE beginning today at 46 should allow 60 to be realized as long as we can maintain sunshine and good mixing. This is a top shelf December day. Palm tree weather is back! Close, but no cigar. MKE topped out at 58. You even bested us way down here by a degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Close, but no cigar. MKE topped out at 58. You even bested us way down here by a degree.I think the mid afternoon high clouds did us in. All in all a beautiful day for December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Hit 55º here today. It was very nice and I was able to get more garden prep done. Tonight's rain looks pretty meager, probably just enough to wet the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Made it to 48 yesterday so missed the record by a few degrees. Mood flakes and a slushy coating today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: I think the mid afternoon high clouds did us in. All in all a beautiful day for December. Still the second warmest December 8 on record, dating back 150 years. You can’t complain about that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Should break the record of 58 here today, forecast high is 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stebo said: Should break the record of 58 here today, forecast high is 60. Stebo, I've always respected your opinion and insight into the weather. What are you thoughts on what the teleconnections are showing towards the end of December? I'm getting that feeling we are chasing a ghost as things continue to get pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Stebo, I've always respected your opinion and insight into the weather. What are you thoughts on what the teleconnections are showing towards the end of December? I'm getting that feeling we are chasing a ghost as things continue to get pushed back. We might be, but there is definitely a signal of a strong Pacific Jet that could flush the pattern a bit late in the month, whether or not that means something positive for us, remains to be seen. It does seem like we are chasing that elusive cooldown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 0.54" overnight to bring us up to 1.55" for December, which is over twice what we received in all of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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