michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 23 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol. I like all snow. Nickel and dime or big storms. But you read too much into that post. All I said to Rogue was "We had that heavy frontal snow thanks to the lake Nov 19th, kinda similar to Nov 27th this year. The lakes definitely help out when synoptic doesn't". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol. In all honesty my point of memery was just heavy snow rates vs heavy snow totals: I thought we were talking more about the former than the latter lol. Nickel and dimeing gets me hyped when there's potential for some stacking or if it's actually setting the mood for the holidays/birthdays/in general if I'm feeling it. Other than that it's not crazy to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 35 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: In all honesty my point of memery was just heavy snow rates vs heavy snow totals: I thought we were talking more about the former than the latter lol. Nickel and dimeing gets me hyped when there's potential for some stacking or if it's actually setting the mood for the holidays/birthdays/in general if I'm feeling it. Other than that it's not crazy to me. It's really a subjective conversation. Rogue mentioned that the first real snow threat last winter wasn't til Dec 23rd. And I brought up the Arctic front snow band from Nov 19. The word "heavy" was I guess the key word for everyone. I meant heavy in terms of visib at DTW going below a quarter mile, not that 1.7" is a ton of snow lol. But my point was that the lakes often "help us" in MI when synoptic is zzzz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: About an inch of wet snow fell here last night and this morning, so I'm up to 5" this season. About the same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Frog Town said: Let me ask you all this- Would you rather have a cold and snowy first half of December to be taken by a Grinch Storm the week of Christmas, or the opposite? To answer my own question, I'd take the latter. Hoping the latter is the case. Easy one ... Latter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It's really a subjective conversation. Rogue mentioned that the first real snow threat last winter wasn't til Dec 23rd. And I brought up the Arctic front snow band from Nov 19. The word "heavy" was I guess the key word for everyone. I meant heavy in terms of visib at DTW going below a quarter mile, not that 1.7" is a ton of snow lol. But my point was that the lakes often "help us" in MI when synoptic is zzzz. Yeah, that's what I assumed you meant too. Regardless of quantity, that amount of snow accounting for initial melt has to mean that it was coming down pretty hard for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol. I don't mind cloudy rainy weather. I will admit I really don't care for several days in a row of just dry and solidly cloudy with 30s & 40s but if is stormy like it has been the past few day then it doesn't bother me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually steve's criteria is all about rates, and that's what I was referring to on Nov 19, 2022. Obviously less than two inches of snow is not a heavy amount of snowfall but the fact that it came in in a blinding band is what I was referring to. Haha, yep. Really, it ripped but it was after dark, I barely saw it twice out my window and here all 0.9" fell in about 30 minutes. By the time I realized it was "happening" it pretty much was just enough time to make that post and it was over. Then I really got the bigger shaft with this year's version. But, I will acknowledge that not ALL has been bad since moving here. I give 3-3-23 very high marks. Very hard-hitting and impressive storm with some ++SN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 KS and WISCO putting up some numbers the last 24 hrs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 18z GFS walls off Chicago from anything wintery. A very April December.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, DocATL said: 18z GFS walls off Chicago from anything wintery. A very April December. . January gonna be rockin' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: January gonna be rockin' Shades of December '14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 1 hour ago, DocATL said: 18z GFS walls off Chicago from anything wintery. A very April December. . comments on 18Z GFS. Cred shot. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 With the lack of snow, ice on the lakes is great. Smooth, snow free, and getting thick quicker without the insolation. Some sheltered smaller lakes are thick enough to fish at this point. Although the ice is later this year compared to others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Very foggy this AM with occasional flurries/light snow. Looks like a nice mild boring work week weather-wise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Friday has an excellent shot at MKE hitting 60 -- sun, favorable 850 temps, SW winds, great mixing and zero snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Friday has an excellent shot at MKE hitting 60 -- sun, favorable 850 temps, SW winds, great mixing and zero snow cover. That would be pretty incredible, as its only happened one time on record dating back to the early 1870s in the Milwaukee area record. In fact, after December 8, there are only 12 days later in the month where it has reached 60 or better [many of them right at the 60F mark]. Current numbers to beat for Friday, December 8th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Friday has an excellent shot at MKE hitting 60 -- sun, favorable 850 temps, SW winds, great mixing and zero snow cover. What are you seeing for the low temperature that day? Here are the record warmest minima: Currently, the NWS point-click forecast centered on MKE Airport has 54F/42F for the high and low, which would be the 4th warmest high and 2nd warmest low. Overall, the mean looks like it would be 2nd highest on record behind only 1946. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: What are you seeing for the low temperature that day? Here are the record warmest minima: Currently, the NWS point-click forecast centered on MKE Airport has 54F/42F for the high and low, which would be the 4th warmest high and 2nd warmest low. Overall, the mean looks like it would be 2nd highest on record behind only 1946. I think we start Friday morning around 45 or so. Winds look to keep up Thursday night out of the SSW, which will prevent temperatures from falling too far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 2:33 PM, Brian D said: The 10 days before Christmas look cold with plenty of LES, and C/S Lakes storm potential. I think the odds for a white Christmas look better for many areas in our southern areas. Was looking a little closer at my modelling method. I have said the 2nd half of Dec looks seasonable to colder, and am sticking to it. 1st half has the opposite feel, and looks to be on track, as mentioned before. Enjoy the pleasant weather, because.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Wasn’t expecting anything but the light snow this evening has accumulated readily, with a solid dusting so far. 0.5” incoming, 2nd best event of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Brian D said: Enjoy the pleasant weather, because.... I don’t think we see a significant, long-lasting pattern change to colder occur this month due to MJO influence, but we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Snowing pretty hard out there now. Some of the models were showing all rain here but they were wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 DTX (summary = gonna stack some more tenths) Shortwave tracking through the Dakotas this afternoon and slippinginto central Indiana by 12z Tuesday. Question is will this systemstill be strong enough and far enough north to support precipitationslipping north across the southern Michigan border. Based on thebulk of the hires solutions, and seeing 850-700 MB omega/forcing,the answers appears to be yes for areas along and south of I-94,with less confidence as one heads north. Mean temperature in the 850-700 MB layer looks to be -10 C. 12z NAM still maintains a closedsurface low/low level circulation through 18z Tuesday, which shouldbe good enough with 925 MB temps of -2 to -3 C. Any layer abovefreezing is right at or just above the surface, so snow is expectedto accumulate, especially after we drop into the upper 20s/near 30degrees tonight. Accumulation around half an inch along and south ofI-94 appears likely, and will then taper off pops quickly as oneheads north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Snowing pretty hard out there now. Some of the models were showing all rain here but they were wrong. Surprise in the making?? At least you get the prime darks hours. Like everything so far, midday event on tap over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Surprise in the making?? At least you get the prime darks hours. Like everything so far, midday event on tap over here. Radar shows mixing moving in from the west out near the QC, so may see it mix with rain here in a little while. Quickly dusted up the ground already though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Quality paste job here overnight. Airport was reporting 0.6” as of midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Still looking good for 60 on Friday. Models are close, but always undershoot these winter warm days. What's important is the ingredients are there to hit at least 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 0.9” at the airport. Scene won’t last but it’s nice to have a wintry look outside. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Rain and snow mix. Nothing sticking. Icky weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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