Stevo6899 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 2:29 PM, nwohweather said: Quite a stormy pattern taking place down there, might even be able to go ENH tomorrow for Central FL. How often do you get 1040 MB highs in mid December with temps in low 50's here? Expand Yea, it seems El Nino is definitly flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Moderate rainfall in progress this morning. This is really needed. It's soaking in just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 4:51 PM, Stevo6899 said: Yea, it seems El Nino is definitely flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec. Expand That's how it was while I lived in Charleston. Played an unreal amount of golf through the winter months down there because of how dry it was, greens were excellent to put on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 2:20 AM, rainsucks said: I can def see this December surpassing both 1881 and 2015 for warmth actually, depending on the location. Expand I should have clarified that I meant locally, Detroit. Further west (upper midwest, northern plains) may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 5:48 PM, michsnowfreak said: I should have clarified that I meant locally, Detroit. Further west (upper midwest, northern plains) may be different. Expand Whats the lowest amount of snow Detroit has seen in a winter? Im wondering if Toronto can break the 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 seasons records of under 16-20" So far Toronto has seen about 4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 4:52 PM, Brian D said: Moderate rainfall in progress this morning. This is really needed. It's soaking in just fine. Expand Crazy, how often are soils frost free in mid-December up that way? Models are trending drier here now, putting the heaviest axis of precip to my NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 6:57 PM, OrdIowPitMsp said: Crazy, how often are soils frost free in mid-December up that way? Models are trending drier here now, putting the heaviest axis of precip to my NW Expand That really depends on late Nov-early Dec temps, and snow cover. Last year we had so much snow early, that frost wasn't an issue either. It's not an uncommon thing. When you have sd's into neg temps overnight more regular, the frost goes deeper quicker, unless the snowpack is robust. There may be some frost in the wooded areas, but temps, and lack of snow cover this year probably have kept the frost from going down much. And I wouldn't be out on any ice today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Up to at least 54 at Milwaukee, which would be good for 3rd warmest (tied) on today's date. Yesterday was also tied for 3rd warmest for that date. Another degree would move today into second place. But look at #1, wow! Crazy two-day torch two years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 6:54 PM, mississaugasnow said: Whats the lowest amount of snow Detroit has seen in a winter? Im wondering if Toronto can break the 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 seasons records of under 16-20" So far Toronto has seen about 4" Expand 1936-37 with 12.9". So far Detroit is at 2.4". The last time we saw under 20" was 17.1" in 1968-69. It's a tall order to talk about futility so early, as the average last measurable snowfall is 4 months away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 7:46 PM, michsnowfreak said: 1936-37 with 12.9". So far Detroit is at 2.4". The last time we saw under 20" was 17.1" in 1968-69. It's a tall order to talk about futility so early, as the average last measurable snowfall is 4 months away. Expand Ya, just takes one storm to pretty much get rid of a chance. I enjoy all records though so I wouldnt mind breaking it if were going to have a bad winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 7:36 PM, TheClimateChanger said: Up to at least 54 at Milwaukee, which would be good for 3rd warmest (tied) on today's date. Yesterday was also tied for 3rd warmest for that date. Another degree would move today into second place. But look at #1, wow! Crazy two-day torch two years ago. Expand yeah with a million severe weather reports, 2 years ago today! Ouch! Up to 58 degrees here, with dew point of 28, not too much wind. I am starting to believe I'm back in Colorado with wintertime warm days. It's a blue sky with some cirrus clouds, much like a lot of ridge-days in Colorado. I'm walking outside, thinking I'll see a lenticular cloud over Longmont or something, then I remember I'm not there. Thanks, Mr. El Nino! to commemorate our really nice day-- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Nothing lasts forever And we both know hearts can change And it's hard to hold a candle In the cold November December Rain 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 10:17 PM, Chinook said: basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine Expand As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 12:29 AM, Stevo6899 said: As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities... Expand Sure, rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 2:15 AM, Chinook said: Sure, rain. Expand As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 2:36 AM, Stevo6899 said: As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities.. Expand yeah, no cold air mass to really work with. No cold air mass to power up that ever-elusive "cold conveyor belt," one of my favorite terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 10:17 PM, Chinook said: basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine Expand The infamous Roger Smith triple phaser. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 5:39 AM, cyclone77 said: The infamous Roger Smith triple phaser. Expand ..enters March '93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 NYE and ongoing across the lower lakes.. Phantasy storms can happen. Can't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 7:36 PM, TheClimateChanger said: Up to at least 54 at Milwaukee, which would be good for 3rd warmest (tied) on today's date. Yesterday was also tied for 3rd warmest for that date. Another degree would move today into second place. But look at #1, wow! Crazy two-day torch two years ago. Expand Yeah, that was a strong surge of warm air from the SW. Records fell handily across our SW sub that day. Here's the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 What a wet couple days, such a waste of potential snowfall. Could have had a robust snowpack with this one, but...... Oh well. precip much needed with 1.31" so far, and still coming down. 1.56" is avg for the month, so we are right there with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 2:27 PM, RogueWaves said: NYE and ongoing across the lower lakes.. Phantasy storms can happen. Can't they? Expand No, they died in 2015 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/15/2023 at 7:53 PM, mississaugasnow said: Ya, just takes one storm to pretty much get rid of a chance. I enjoy all records though so I wouldnt mind breaking it if were going to have a bad winter Expand My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 4:39 PM, michsnowfreak said: My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come. Expand I love your optimism. Hoping for a turnaround in early January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 4:44 PM, Frog Town said: I love your optimism. Hoping for a turnaround in early January. Expand Thanks. Although I don't consider it optimism or a stretch to say it's too early to discuss snowfall futility when we have over 85% of our seasonal snowfall statistically to come. Decembers stink this year was seen a mile away and the hope all along was hoping for a few timely threaded needles. But strong nino climo in Dec plus a hostile pacific made a shit December a given. The remainder of the cold season after new years, in my opinion, will be much more dependent on storm tracks and what not rather than worrying about no cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 4:44 PM, Frog Town said: I love your optimism. Hoping for a turnaround in early January. Expand To add to this, around this time in 2005 and 2016 we were enjoying a postcard perfect Christmas season full of snow and cold. What happened after New Year's each of those years sucked. Weather patterns do change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 4:39 PM, michsnowfreak said: My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come. Expand Interesting that your average to date is so low. Torontos is already 10" by mid December. Losing December puts Toronto in a big hole since its essentially tied with January and February as the snowiest (10-12" each month) March and November average 4-6" and under 2" in April So with models showing nothing next two weeks, it puts Toronto in almost guaranteed below average snow year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 8:25 PM, mississaugasnow said: Interesting that your average to date is so low. Torontos is already 10" by mid December. Losing December puts Toronto in a big hole since its essentially tied with January and February as the snowiest (10-12" each month) March and November average 4-6" and under 2" in April So with models showing nothing next two weeks, it puts Toronto in almost guaranteed below average snow year. Expand Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms. Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/16/2023 at 11:03 PM, michsnowfreak said: Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms. Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5 Expand 30 year average. Torontos Nov-3.5", Dec- 9.5", Jan- 11.4", Feb- 11" Mar-6.3" Apr-2" Interesting to see that Toronto seems to start a bit earlier and stabilizes, while you guys rocket up and then we both finish March and April near identical. My apologies about saying near 10" in mid December. Actually writing out the averages I guess it's actually about 8.5" at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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