Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

The 384 hr 12z GFS looks hot!!!

I will not post the map.

Lol. But it's definitely good to see that the flushing out of the anamolous warmth shortly after christmas has not been "can kicked" down the road.

[Geoboy645]

Well the next 4-5 days look like 40's and 50's with rain. A nice forecast that will get greenup going with no real frost in the forecast. Seems like we are finally turning the corner into Spring. A pretty typical first week of spring forecast.... wait what do you mean it's the first day of winter?!

[hardypalmguy]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol. But it's definitely good to see that the flushing out of the anamolous warmth shortly after christmas has not been "can kicked" down the road.

lol, you're delusional if you think the warmth is being kicked out.

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Remember, you arent in Atlanta anymore lol.

 

Oh, he definitely gon' learn, lol...

I remember the other guy from the Atlanta area a few years ago who about lost his mind when he realized how cloudy it is up there.

[DocATL]

 
Oh, he definitely gon' learn, lol...
I remember the other guy from the Atlanta area a few years ago who about lost his mind when he realized how cloudy it is up there.

No question I have seasonal affective disorder from the cloudy days and early nights. Luckily the craft beer is better up here!

[Brian D]

Adding this to help visualize December past and present. Of course this year will be a strong + anom, but overall, nothing out of the ordinary yet. Added standard deviation to show that we are currently still running well within that, with the typical strong positive/negative years falling outside that range. Std Dev is about twice as large in the winter months than summer.

[Brian D]

Might as well add Jan, and Feb in the mix. 

[Brian D]

And for those saying that Dec's are becoming the 2nd Nov's. Have we so soon forgotten the very Dec like Nov's these past years. Just sayin.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

lol, you're delusional if you think the warmth is being kicked out.

The irony of someone who has palms in an area that only stays frost free for 5 months of the year using the word "delusional".

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Brian D said:

And for those saying that Dec's are becoming the 2nd Nov's. Have we so soon forgotten the very Dec like Nov's these past years. Just sayin.

So true. Quite a few wintry Novembers have preceded blah Decembers the past decade.

[hardypalmguy]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The irony of someone who has palms in an area that only stays frost free for 5 months of the year using the word "delusional".

Frost free season is way closer to 6 months than 5.

[Chicago Storm]

7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

about as bad as it gets

february will be rocking

There will be opportunity in January.

[Snowstorms]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks for the links, I'll save them! When you go from having a snow machine in your backyard to painting your grass green & having palm trees in a humid continental climate, lmao. But yes, his posts are all trolling.

This december will likely be a top 5 warm December. We've only had 2 good cold and snowy Decembers the last decade, we've done actually decent with White Christmases, but December themselves have left much to be desired. What's really interesting is that we have no problem consistently getting early and late season snowflakes (Oct/May), November cold snaps and snowfalls, and loads of snow in February, but it's like pulling teeth to get a good December. Detroit's winter warming over the last 100 years is entirely from December, as Jan (-0.5°) and Feb (+0.5°) are a wash. There have actually been many winters in the past where december was by far the most severe winter month.. That did happen more recently in 2000, 2005, & 2016, but for the most part it's as if We are two completely different climates in december and february.

I agree. The biggest warming we've seen in winter is in December. It would be nice to get a string of cold Decembers (i.e., Dec 2007-Dec 2010) again but who knows. La Nina Decembers are typically cold and neither of the last 3 were cold lol. But just like you I'm a big winter enthusiast. However, I don't care much about Oct/Nov or mid-late March/April snow as much as I do about peak winter snow/cold. Anything outside of DJF until mid March is nothing more than a stat pad as it melts so quick because the climo doesn't support it. So to go an entire winter month without any snow/cold sucks. 

But you're right how we don't need frigid arctic air to get snow across our region. 2019-20 or even last winter are a good representation of that. We can still get snow with marginal temperatures. That's how we ended up getting 60" last winter here in Toronto. 

[Brian D]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

So true. Quite a few wintry Novembers have preceded blah Decembers the past decade.

Thing of it is, I've seen the same talk when Nov's (and Feb's too) were really warm 20 yrs ago, and all the hype with that, then patterns changed towards colder years. Crickets! A warm string of years portends nothing. Wx patterns, and their timing are so much more complex, especially across NA continent. The NC US is a great place for wx weenies.  

[andyhb]

On 12/19/2023 at 10:35 PM, cyclone77 said:

We get it buddy.

How has that guy not been banned yet...

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, andyhb said:

How has that guy not been banned yet...

He has been at least once under previous names. lol

[cyclone77]

29 minutes ago, andyhb said:

How has that guy not been banned yet...

He's like a dog that keeps yipping at you, and chases you around and won't ever shut up, making the same noise over and over and over.

[Chambana]

Keeping expectations low during a borderline very strong El Niño keeps your sanity. So anything noteworthy that does pop up is a welcome surprise. This winter has been playing like out strikingly similar to 2015-16 so far. 

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

He's like a dog that keeps yipping at you, and chases you around and won't ever shut up, making the same noise over and over and over.

This sub does pretty well without being moderated as most of us are adults but this turd needs flushed.

Edit: NOT CYCLONE!

[Chambana]

Just now, weatherbo said:

This sub does pretty well without being moderated as most of us are adults but this turd needs flushed.

Ignoring trolls is the greatest deterrent. 

[Frog Town]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

Keeping expectations low during a borderline very strong El Niño keeps your sanity. So anything noteworthy that does pop up is a welcome surprise. This winter has been playing like out strikingly similar to 2015-16 so far. 

My thoughts exactly.  Our first accumulating snow fall that year was during spring break...

We actually went sledding but the 8" melted off by noon.  

[hardypalmguy]

Lol at all the people that can’t handle reality and want to stick their heads in the sand while they beat their chests screaming into an echo chamber with like hiveminders.

Sorry I have opposite views and can see what’s happening for what it is. And accept that. Midwest is warming. Faster than ever and I’m going to point out that truth.

This place isn’t the Borg. You guys don’t control the narrative.

[Chicago Storm]

On 12/15/2023 at 8:23 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Though, including some significant stratospheric warming on deck. Will touch on that early next week...

Will finally have something up tomorrow, but a few key points...

-The pattern is changing, and significantly at that.
-It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been.
-There will be a steady/consistent flow of waves/disturbances moving into the Western US, and then across the country.
-The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months.
-A SSWE is most definitely going to occur, with the effects TBD in the weeks after it occurs.
-The MJO will make a 1-2 week pass through colder phases.
-The raging Pacific jet is likely to break down to some degree.

[hardypalmguy]

Will finally have something up tomorrow, but a few key points...
-The pattern is changing, and significantly at that.
-It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been.
-There will be a steady/consistent flow of waves/disturbances moving into the Western US, and then across the country.
-The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months.
-A SSWE is most definitely going to occur, with the effects TBD in the weeks after it occurs.
-The MJO will make a 1-2 week pass through colder phases.
-The raging Pacific jet is likely to break down to some degree.

Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.





.

[rainsucks]

The models (even the ensembles) have been wildly inconsistent in handling the large-scale pattern during what is now the 11-15 day time period (though I suspect they’re likely too cold as usual). Still though, you can never be 100% certain as to how it’ll all play out.

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.





.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. The biggest warming we've seen in winter is in December. It would be nice to get a string of cold Decembers (i.e., Dec 2007-Dec 2010) again but who knows. La Nina Decembers are typically cold and neither of the last 3 were cold lol. But just like you I'm a big winter enthusiast. However, I don't care much about Oct/Nov or mid-late March/April snow as much as I do about peak winter snow/cold. Anything outside of DJF until mid March is nothing more than a stat pad as it melts so quick because the climo doesn't support it. So to go an entire winter month without any snow/cold sucks. 

But you're right how we don't need frigid arctic air to get snow across our region. 2019-20 or even last winter are a good representation of that. We can still get snow with marginal temperatures. That's how we ended up getting 60" last winter here in Toronto. 

Actually, looks like Toronto's on a stretch of above average snow seasons per your sig.

[CorePunch]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.





.

Rapidly increasing sun angle? 
 

You’re not a serious hobbyist or poster. 

[hardypalmguy]

Rapidly increasing sun angle? 
 
You’re not a serious hobbyist or poster. 

The sun angle rapidly increases in February. That’s science.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Brian D said:

Thing of it is, I've seen the same talk when Nov's (and Feb's too) were really warm 20 yrs ago, and all the hype with that, then patterns changed towards colder years. Crickets! A warm string of years portends nothing. Wx patterns, and their timing are so much more complex, especially across NA continent. The NC US is a great place for wx weenies.  

I agree 100%. I wish I studied for exams back in college half as much as i've studied detroit's weather data history, I would have aced every single thing. It's fascinating to see different trends in weather over the years. I always say, winters are like the snowflakes they produce: no two are the same. But there have been certain decadal trends that are sometimes seen. A lot of people have unrealistic expectations for winter to begin with, but ever since our stretch of great winters in the Midwest,  computer model accessibility for free, and media hype, it has gotten even worse.