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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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I know Ricky briefly touched on part of it...But why has it been so consistently mild/warm, and why will it generally continue into late month?

The combination of a bigly/massive Pac jet, the MJO progressing through warmer phases, and the lack of consistent blocking of some sorts.

Changes are in the future, though, including some significant stratospheric warming on deck. Will touch on that early next week...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_speed-3462400.thumb.png.ceb0ec07efbb69b746dd2238166188d1.png

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I know Ricky briefly touched on part of it...But why has it been so consistently mild/warm, and why will it generally continue into late month?
The combination of a bigly/massive Pac jet, the MJO progressing through warmer phases, and the lack of consistent blocking of some sorts.
Changes are in the future, though, including some significant stratospheric warming on deck. Will touch on that early next week...
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_speed-3462400.thumb.png.ceb0ec07efbb69b746dd2238166188d1.png

No guarantees that a SSWE will occur and furthermore lead to wide spread cold in NA. The MJO isn’t great early January and with our luck could be low amplitude.


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12 hours ago, DocATL said:


Yes we’d be lucky to see 72 straight hours below 32°


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Most winters, even the mildest ones, Chicago will easily see one or several stretches over 3+ days below freezing. Likewise, the chances of an entire month straight below freezing, even in the coldest winters, is extremely rare.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Most winters, even the mildest ones, Chicago will easily see one or several stretches over 3+ days below freezing. Likewise, the chances of an entire month straight below freezing, even in the coldest winters, is extremely rare.

An entire month below freezing is rare, yes, but they can happen, at least for us here. The most recent being February 2015 where YYZ stayed below freezing the entire month (warmest day was 29F). In total we stayed below freezing for 37 straight days.

From Jan 5 to Feb 12, 2011 we stayed below freezing with the exception of 3 days, but they were barely above freezing and only a for few hours too. 

Another recent one was Jan 14 to Feb 18, 2007. Only two minor days above freezing in that stretch but both were below 33F. 

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On 12/15/2023 at 9:47 PM, DocATL said:


No guarantees that a SSWE will occur and furthermore lead to wide spread cold in NA. The MJO isn’t great early January and with our luck could be low amplitude.


.

SW is most definitely going to occur, and the MJO is most definitely going to exit the COD somewhere into the 8-2 phase range (But yes, at low amplitude).

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