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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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For what its worth, out in the far west suburbs of Chicago Im seeing some buds pushing and saw daffodils starting to emerge two days ago.  Very strange.

Not so strange with how warm it’s been. It’s happened before and will again.


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On 2/19/2024 at 1:42 PM, Stebo said:

 

 

No one cares and you whine way too much about it. Furthermore I explained why it doesn't happen here and why it does for Chicago. You either don't care to read for comprehension or you are just being a troll who needs attention.

No one cares about big dogs? We're all weather weenies and care about snow otherwise we wouldn't be on here. I didn't realize chicago was aided that much by the lake with GHD1. Regardless you'll come up with an excuse for why it happens everywhere else, EC, Missouri, Minneapolis, upper midwest.  We'll agree to disagree and move on because there's so much going on weather wise we don't want to clutter up this thread. :sizzle:

Reached 60 here today with plenty of sun. Looks to be flirting with 50's and 60's most of next week too with only one day in the 30's. I guess this is the next best thing if we aren't gonna get snow with nothing close to accumulating snow on any part of the models. Obviously long ways to go but if we were gonna go a March without a legit snow, this looks like the best chance.

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3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

No one cares about big dogs? We're all weather weenies and care about snow otherwise we wouldn't be on here. I didn't realize chicago was aided that much by the lake with GHD1. Regardless you'll come up with an excuse for why it happens everywhere else, EC, Missouri, Minneapolis, upper midwest.  We'll agree to disagree and move on because there's so much going on weather wise we don't want to clutter up this thread. :sizzle:

Reached 60 here today with plenty of sun. Looks to be flirting with 50's and 60's most of next week too with only one day in the 30's. I guess this is the next best thing if we aren't gonna get snow with nothing close to accumulating snow on any part of the models. Obviously long ways to go but if we were gonna go a March without a legit snow, this looks like the best chance.

The older I get the less I actually care about snow lol. I'll gladly take a massive heat wave with 95-105 for days on end followed by severe storms. 

Toronto also doesnt really get big dogs so I don't grade my winters based on if we saw a 24" storm. Big storms that get hype here are generally 8-12" so thats considered a big dog to me. The 16-24" are historical storms so in a completely different league and not one I expect to see often. 

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9 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

The older I get the less I actually care about snow lol. I'll gladly take a massive heat wave with 95-105 for days on end followed by severe storms. 

Toronto also doesnt really get big dogs so I don't grade my winters based on if we saw a 24" storm. Big storms that get hype here are generally 8-12" so thats considered a big dog to me. The 16-24" are historical storms so in a completely different league and not one I expect to see often. 

I agree and I am losing interest in snow as i close in on 40, thus why I just want that big one at this point. I love the heat and always enjoy a heat wave. When I was young and didn't own a home, I really enjoyed severe weather and welcomed it. Nowadays not so much. I'd venture to guess we see more severe threats than snow threats in the coming weeks in and around the lakes and lower midwest. Days like yesterday are great for those with aches and pains. It's amazing how great the warmer weather makes you feel mentally and physically. 

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16 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Bugs already out in force. Seen flys, gnats, box elder bugs, and even had a tick crawl on my pant leg at work today. Poplars, aspens, and maples showing signs of budding. Even looks like the tulip poplar is as well to an extent

Interesting.  Outside of a stray box elder (which I see all winter long regardless of temps), there are no bugs out in my area. 

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Models are showing a 50 degree drop in high temps over much of Iowa between Tue-Wed next week.  Around Des Moines they go from a high in mid 70s Tue, to a high in the mid 20s on Wed, with teens still holding on at midday.  That would/will be a brutal slap in the face. 

Atmospheric napalm. Some angry storms.


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Been reading much much more than I post and thankful to many folks here like for sharing their knowledge. It seems the pacific does have a major bearing on our winter and the PDO has significant long term effects (albeit with debate). Please correct me if I’m wrong (but preferably with a little less snark )

The PDO does have an effect. However, one single factor does not dictate the outcome as a whole, multiple factors do.
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14 hours ago, Lightning said:

Interesting.  Outside of a stray box elder (which I see all winter long regardless of temps), there are no bugs out in my area. 

Down by the state line right now for work is where I seen some activity. Granted it’s deep in the woods a bit

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On 2/22/2024 at 10:16 PM, DocATL said:

DT from WeatherRisk is not bullish on a mid March pattern change with the MJO going into the neutral circle during colder phases. Putrid patterns persist.


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give him a day or so.

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