Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

My in-depth thoughts...

 

 

Punt till January.

[A-L-E-K]

[michsnowfreak]

As big a snowlover & Christmas lover as I am, if I HAD to pick which DJF month to suck, I would actually pick December. I mean it's like choosing which bone to break. It's NOT a preference, just if I HAD to pick one. Always so busy with so many Christmas activities in Dec, whereas January & February are the boring quiet months, outside of weather. 

[hardypalmguy]

As big a snowlover & Christmas lover as I am, if I HAD to pick which DJF month to suck, I would actually pick December. I mean it's like choosing which bone to break. It's NOT a preference, just if I HAD to pick one. Always so busy with so many Christmas activities in Dec, whereas January & February are the boring quiet months, outside of weather. 

Now you’re bargaining and coping because you can’t handle the loss of an entire winter month year after year. Winters are warming and we are witnessing the shoulder months going first. We aren’t at the point yet where January and first half of February go but it will happen soon enough.

[WestMichigan]

9 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Now you’re bargaining and coping because you can’t handle the loss of an entire winter month year after year. Winters are warming and we are witnessing the shoulder months going first. We aren’t at the point yet where January and first half of February go but it will happen soon enough.

Take it to the Climate Change sub

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Would be lovely. 

[Frog Town]

When I ever I do this, things change....

[Chambana]

GHD IV gonna save the winter. 

[hlcater]

This is one of the worst 384hr GEFS means I can recall... Quite literally zero winners on here.

[Chambana]

3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is one of the worst 384hr GEFS means I can recall... Quite literally zero winners on here.

should that come to fruition I’d be knocking on the doorstep of my third December in the last decade with less than 1” of snow. 

[hardypalmguy]

Keep what we have going for next 90 days. Definitely won’t complain.

[Chicago Storm]

Solid agreement on ENS means for two weeks out.

Merry Christmas.






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[A-L-E-K]

Might as well embrace it

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Might as well embrace it

hardypalmguy about to cream his boyshorts. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Might as well embrace it

This is the correct strategy. 

[cyclone77]

December is usually just a 2nd November anyway the past decade or so.  Good news is we get a 2nd March to help make up for it if you like cold weather.

[outflow]

16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

December is usually just a 2nd November anyway the past decade or so.  Good news is we get a 2nd March to help make up for it if you like cold weather.

I could deal with a third, fourth, and fifth November or any month for that matter if it came with something interesting instead of the endless zzzzz much of the great lakes area seem to be stuck in.

[Stevo6899]

I wonder if we'll see any snowmaps in our region this winter that look like western maine/into canada the next 48 hours...

[Cary67]

WAD alert..

 

[A-L-E-K]

Look at that stupid thing lol

[bowtie`]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Look at that stupid thing lol

Ain't it beautiful!?

[RogueWaves]

12 hours ago, outflow said:

I could deal with a third, fourth, and fifth November or any month for that matter if it came with something interesting instead of the endless zzzzz much of the great lakes area seem to be stuck in.

what? you don't like your 2 days of active wx per season??

Remember, last December we got this. Kinda figures we'd have to pay for it sooner than later.

 

 

[DocATL]

The MJO forecast is abysmal for winter weather.


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[nwohweather]

On 12/9/2023 at 8:37 PM, hardypalmguy said:

Keep what we have going for next 90 days. Definitely won’t complain.

In all seriousness a strong El Nino typically leads to this type of pattern. Look at how wet it's been over the South in the past few weeks. At this point I expect our golf courses to be open into Christmas around here, I've even noticed some longer than usual grass in our yard

[RCNYILWX]

We've grown accustomed to quiet patterns in December recently, but I think this stretch we're entering may take the cake.

If the end of the ensembles are to be believed, it'll take until at least the end of the month to see some retraction of the higher end Pacific jet extension that will flood much of North America with mild air over the next couple weeks.

Even then, if the pattern does eventually transition to colder in January, if it's driven by a +PNA, that would favor extending the drier than normal pattern.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

In all seriousness a strong El Nino typically leads to this type of pattern. Look at how wet it's been over the South in the past few weeks. At this point I expect our golf courses to be open into Christmas around here, I've even noticed some longer than usual grass in our yard

Today actually feels like winter. Certainly haven't noticed any grass growing lol. But unfortunately strong nino decembers are typically suck city. Just enjoy the holidays and hope the return of cold in January isn't too dry.

[A-L-E-K]

[nwohweather]

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Today actually feels like winter. Certainly haven't noticed any grass growing lol. But unfortunately strong nino decembers are typically suck city. Just enjoy the holidays and hope the return of cold in January isn't too dry.

Maybe for you, I'm with @hardypalmguysince living in the South for years. Give me 45 & sunny every day of the winter if I'm not going to get blizzard conditions or pond hockey consistency of cold

[Stebo]

23 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

We've grown accustomed to quiet patterns in December recently, but I think this stretch we're entering may take the cake.

If the end of the ensembles are to be believed, it'll take until at least the end of the month to see some retraction of the higher end Pacific jet extension that will flood much of North America with mild air over the next couple weeks.

Even then, if the pattern does eventually transition to colder in January, if it's driven by a +PNA, that would favor extending the drier than normal pattern.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

WAD to CAD I can already see it coming.