Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Starting to feel more confident that a top 5 warmest and least snowy winter might be in the cards here. 

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Starting to feel more confident that a top 5 warmest and least snowy winter might be in the cards here. 

It will be if we don't get some snow/cold in February. December was one of the warmest on records and even with the cold snap this month most places are just barely below normal and we are looking at warmth coming in next week that should take away any negative departures.

[A-L-E-K]

the problem with the msp futility chase is the threat of spoilers into may

[OrdIowPitMsp]

35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the problem with the msp futility chase is the threat of spoilers into may

Chasing the ghost of winter 1887/1888 for warmest on record. Would be pretty cool if April and May end up our snowiest months this winter. Right now the 2.7” in October takes the top spot. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Winter to date temperatures below for some selected sites in the midwestern United States. Looks like 2023-24 will be moving up on these lists through at least the beginning of February.

Detroit (9th warmest)

Cleveland (10th warmest)

Toledo (10th warmest)

Fort Wayne (9th warmest)

South Bend (8th warmest)

Lansing (6th warmest)

Mansfield, Ohio (10th warmest)

Marquette (NWS) (warmest)

Green Bay (2nd warmest)

Minneapolis/St. Paul (2nd warmest)

International Falls (warmest)

 

[TheClimateChanger]

You would have thought we just went through the second coming of January 1994 with all of the media hype, yet everybody is having a top 10 warmest winter so far (with even warmer temperatures occurring now). In fact, record breaking warmth across the north country.

[Stebo]

29 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You would have thought we just went through the second coming of January 1994 with all of the media hype, yet everybody is having a top 10 warmest winter so far (with even warmer temperatures occurring now). In fact, record breaking warmth across the north country.

I mean December is obviously doing all the heavy lifting on these numbers. It was still a significant cold snap that we went through, to say otherwise is foolish.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Chasing the ghost of winter 1887/1888 for warmest on record. Would be pretty cool if April and May end up our snowiest months this winter. Right now the 2.7” in October takes the top spot. 

I think you mean 1877-78.

[sbnwx85]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Winter to date temperatures below for some selected sites in the midwestern United States. Looks like 2023-24 will be moving up on these lists through at least the beginning of February.

Detroit (9th warmest)

Cleveland (10th warmest)

Toledo (10th warmest)

Fort Wayne (9th warmest)

South Bend (8th warmest)

Lansing (6th warmest)

Mansfield, Ohio (10th warmest)

Marquette (NWS) (warmest)

Green Bay (2nd warmest)

Minneapolis/St. Paul (2nd warmest)

International Falls (warmest)

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

I mean December is obviously doing all the heavy lifting on these numbers. It was still a significant cold snap that we went through, to say otherwise is foolish.

TCC went off a cliff when the significance of the cold snap was discussed. The third week of january was top 3 coldest in almost the entire middle third of the country, something he called run of the mill. At Detroit, it was the 7th coldest. We have talked to death about how shitty the first half of this winter has been, especially December. There is not one single person in here who is remotely acting like this is a good winter for cold and snow lovers. But for the cromartie-lites, the mere discussion of ongoing cold or snow is a trigger. 

 

Hey look I can play with xmacis too! Detroit coldest Jan 14-20

[OrdIowPitMsp]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think you mean 1877-78.

Yes you are correct. Off by a mere decade. February 1878 is the 6th warmest all time for Minneapolis. We need to aim for a top 5 warmest February to have a shot at the record. 

[Geoboy645]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

It will be if we don't get some snow/cold in February. December was one of the warmest on records and even with the cold snap this month most places are just barely below normal and we are looking at warmth coming in next week that should take away any negative departures.

To put it in perspective, before the cold blast Madison was running a +9 departure for the month. Even with all the cold of last week the lowest the departure got was ...-1.... Now with the warmth from a couple days ago to the end of the month its shooting up again. We are now back to exactly 0.0, with the next 6 days above to well above average. 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

TCC went off a cliff when the significance of the cold snap was discussed. The third week of january was top 3 coldest in almost the entire middle third of the country, something he called run of the mill. At Detroit, it was the 7th coldest. We have talked to death about how shitty the first half of this winter has been, especially December. There is not one single person in here who is remotely acting like this is a good winter for cold and snow lovers. But for the cromartie-lites, the mere discussion of ongoing cold or snow is a trigger. 

 

Hey look I can play with xmacis too! Detroit coldest Jan 14-20

Yeah it was a cold week to 10 days, significant enough to drop the temps down for the month but not really drop the temp down for the winter thus far.

[RCNYILWX]

Webb has been good this winter so it appears there's hope beyond the upcoming torch. Perhaps what he describes implies the eastern half of the sub being favored, but we'll see how things play out.

I don't understand all the hand wringing about the winter stats. It was expected to be a mild winter in the means. But how things play out can change perceptions.

With a decent chunk of the sub having the solid January stretch and if we can have a solid second half or 2/3 of February and continue that into March, I'd wager that would exceed most expectations for the areas that have benefitted thus far. This isn't a one size fits all take for the subforum of course, but for us at the hardest hit WFOs, what we had compares well to some of the most active winter stretches in my time here, aside from the relentless 2013-14 winter. And it happening in a strong Niño makes it unexpected and memorable.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it was a cold week to 10 days, significant enough to drop the temps down for the month but not really drop the temp down for the winter thus far.

No arguments here. Depending what happens the rest of the way, this could be a real wacky winter, especially if the torch followed by cold comes to fruition.

So far-

-Snowiest Halloween on record

-Near zero visibility in snow squalls Nov 27, made for 3 days of white to end November.

-Disaster December. Warmth is one thing, but only a trace of snow imby. No days with snow on the ground

-Mild first third of January gives way to a 10-12 day siege of deep winter w/ thundersnow, a parade of snowfalls, bitter cold, drifting snow, -30F wind chills, etc

-London weather hits during the dead of winter

-Rest of the way??? 

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

No arguments here. Depending what happens the rest of the way, this could be a real wacky winter, especially if the torch followed by cold comes to fruition.

So far-

-Snowiest Halloween on record

-Near zero visibility in snow squalls Nov 27, made for 3 days of white to end November.

-Disaster December. Warmth is one thing, but only a trace of snow imby. No days with snow on the ground

-Mild first third of January gives way to a 10-12 day siege of deep winter w/ thundersnow, a parade of snowfalls, bitter cold, drifting snow, -30F wind chills, etc

-London weather hits during the dead of winter

-Rest of the way??? 

Time for the magic.  Need you to breakout that ole Josh snow magnet for Monday's system 

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Time for the magic.  Need you to breakout that ole Josh snow magnet for Monday's system 

Honestly anything thru approx Feb 10th would be thread the needle luck. I'm not holding my breath, but definitely liking mid Feb and beyond.

[Lightning]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly anything thru approx Feb 10th would be thread the needle luck. I'm not holding my breath, but definitely liking mid Feb and beyond.

Yeah and Monday would be a complete thread the needle 

As crazy as it may sound I am actually not doing bad for snowfall this year.  Like last year the warmth keeps knocking it out of existence.  

I think we could be in for a fun time ahead too!!  Keep it stormy; add some cold and fun happens 

[Snowstorms]

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

I mean December is obviously doing all the heavy lifting on these numbers. It was still a significant cold snap that we went through, to say otherwise is foolish.

Maybe for Chicago, Iowa, Wisconsin, and further west, but it wasn't anything special for us further east. Our average low in Toronto is 12F right now and the coldest we got was 4. I'm sure the same could be said for Detroit with the exception of 2-3 cold nights where you dipped below 0.

And it only lasted a week. Now we are back to reality (continuing warmth). And it'll likely erase any negative departures for Detroit. 

 

[rainsucks]

It was surely an intense cold blast, but rather unremarkable for the most part. Nowhere near as impressive/anomalous as Jan 2019 or Feb 2015, just as examples.

Even Dec 2017-Jan 2018 featured a more noteworthy cold air outbreak than this most recent one.

[mississaugasnow]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Maybe for Chicago, Iowa, Wisconsin, and further west, but it wasn't anything special for us further east. Our average low in Toronto is 12F right now and the coldest we got was 4. I'm sure the same could be said for Detroit with the exception of 2-3 cold nights where you dipped below 0.

And it only lasted a week. Now we are back to reality (continuing warmth). And it'll likely erase any negative departures for Detroit. 

 

Ya, the cold for eastern lakes and east coast was normal winter cold snap. The coldest I got down to was 3F with a windchill of -15F. Cold but like I said nothing crazy. 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Maybe for Chicago, Iowa, Wisconsin, and further west, but it wasn't anything special for us further east. Our average low in Toronto is 12F right now and the coldest we got was 4. I'm sure the same could be said for Detroit with the exception of 2-3 cold nights where you dipped below 0.

And it only lasted a week. Now we are back to reality (continuing warmth). And it'll likely erase any negative departures for Detroit. 

 

It was a very cold week here. But with the mild weather to close January, yes, DTW will finish slightly on the + side. The blast was impressive but on the short side. It was a parade of snowfalls and temps well below avg for about 10 days. The 3rd week of January was 7th coldest on record for Detroit. Nowhere near the blasts of 2019, 2014, 2015, etc...but i cant find a similar one during a strong Nino here.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was a very cold week here. But with the mild weather to close January, yes, DTW will finish slightly on the + side. The blast was impressive but on the short side. It was a parade of snowfalls and temps well below avg for about 10 days. The 3rd week of January was 7th coldest on record for Detroit. Nowhere near the blasts of 2019, 2014, 2015, etc...but i cant find a similar one during a strong Nino here.

Statistically speaking, every winter month (DJF) except Feb 2021, and Jan/Feb 2022 has finished above average (temperature wise) since 2019-20. That's an ugly stat. It's even uglier if you go back to 2015-16. Only 4 more months (Jan 2019, Jan 2018, Dec 2017, and Dec 2016).

More like light snow events that in some winters would be considered average (i.e., ~2"). And the next 10 days look warm and snowless. 

If we want to specifically filter out for strong Nino's, then January 1992, January 1988, and February 1973 had more impressive cold outbreaks. January 1966 was probably the more impressive one because the month finished below average. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Statistically speaking, every winter month (DJF) except Feb 2021, and Jan/Feb 2022 has finished above average (temperature wise) since 2019-20. That's an ugly stat. It's even uglier if you go back to 2015-16. Only 4 more months (Jan 2019, Jan 2018, Dec 2017, and Dec 2016).

More like light snow events that in some winters would be considered average (i.e., ~2"). And the next 10 days look warm and snowless. 

If we want to specifically filter out for strong Nino's, then January 1992, January 1988, and February 1973 had more impressive cold outbreaks. January 1966 was probably the more impressive one because the month finished below average. 

 

You're kind of taking this OT. All that was said is that it was a significant cold snap. The week averaged 15 degrees colder than average.  

Good catch on Jan 1966. It was more severe in terms of longevity for sure. 1973 & 1992 were shorter and not as extreme as 2023 here. I did not realize 1988 was a strong nino.

[mississaugasnow]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You're kind of taking this OT. All that was said is that it was a significant cold snap. The week averaged 15 degrees colder than average.  

Good catch on Jan 1966. It was more severe in terms of longevity for sure. 1973 & 1992 were shorter and not as extreme as 2023 here. I did not realize 1988 was a strong nino.

I think what we just witnessed is a bit like a mini 2009-2010. Your very cold and snowy 10 days was nothing for Toronto. You got 14" and we got 8", you had really cold temps and windchills and we just had basic cold. 

It will be confusing looking at records in the future wondering what happened because Detroit, Chicago, Midwest got 10 days of brutal cold and snow. Ottawa, Buffalo got tons of snow as well. 

Toronto, Rochester and Syracuse somehow thread the needle and didnt see much. 

[beavis1729]

On 1/25/2024 at 1:58 PM, RCNYILWX said:

Webb has been good this winter so it appears there's hope beyond the upcoming torch. Perhaps what he describes implies the eastern half of the sub being favored, but we'll see how things play out.

I don't understand all the hand wringing about the winter stats. It was expected to be a mild winter in the means. But how things play out can change perceptions.

With a decent chunk of the sub having the solid January stretch and if we can have a solid second half or 2/3 of February and continue that into March, I'd wager that would exceed most expectations for the areas that have benefitted thus far. This isn't a one size fits all take for the subforum of course, but for us at the hardest hit WFOs, what we had compares well to some of the most active winter stretches in my time here, aside from the relentless 2013-14 winter. And it happening in a strong Niño makes it unexpected and memorable.

 

Disclaimer: Tenor of the post is as a fellow weenie, separate from you and your colleagues being valued NWS employees...

The issue, as always, is that our expectations are so low. When people resign themselves to the fact that 10 days of winter (regardless of ENSO state or various indices) is acceptable, where does that leave us?  Even if the 10-day stretch is really good (in this case I'd give it a B or B+ since our friends in the city missed out and it had the potential to be even better), would we ever be ok with 10 days of summer?  In summer, people don't care about the indices - it's just summer.  Sure, some patterns can be 70s and humid and others can be 90s and dry, but it still feels like summer either way simply because of the calendar.

Can't chalk it all up to a strong El Nino.  Last year didn't feature that, but the winter was still horrible. It's maddening to have to depend on the perfect alphabet soup of indices to get winter.  Shouldn't the calendar be enough?

Our problem is temps, not precip/snow. A day with a high of 15F in January shouldn't be a big deal.  Sure, it's a bit cold...but nothing crazy.  The problem is that it needs to be offset by another day with a high of 45F, since our average high in Jan is 30F.  The good patterns can be really good, but it's short-lived and everything else is bad.  Would have been nice to follow up the 10-day good pattern with regular winter, like highs 25-30F and lows in the teens with a bit of snowfall.  Nothing crazy, just some basic winter-type stuff.  But it's always way up and way down.  We never get "normal" winter weather here.  It's either a good pattern which you hope produces in a short window...or nothing.

And it's even worse because all of those comments are referencing Jan, the core of winter.  Dec/Feb are even worse, as average monthly highs are higher, around 35F.

The problem with low expectations is that it makes people think they should be ok with 10 days of winter, when DJF is 91 days long. If that's the case, what's the point of being excited about winter?  So maybe we get to celebrate 20-30 days in winter (instead of 10) with other ENSO states?  Ok...I guess that's a small improvement.

Would be nice to look out the window in DJF and not have to worry about melting.  I don't look out the window between mid-June and mid-Sept and worry about it being cold outside. You may have an occasional cool morning...but 98 times out of 100 it will feel like summer in summer. No one is asking for subzero temps and feet of snow continuously; just a nice 6-8 week stretch of temps mainly in the 10s-20s (even a few afternoons in the 30s, as long as the nights are cold) with at least some accumulating snow in the less productive weeks. I guess we pin our hopes on mid-Feb to mid-Mar, even though it will be tough to keep snow on the ground?  If Dec would have been decent, the current stretch would be more tolerable...but winter was nowhere to be found in the month with the shortest daylight and the holidays. Regardless of how the rest of the winter turns out, it's impossible to recover from that.

We finally get the lakes to freeze around here, then it all goes to ****. Nothing is stable or consistent. There should be a 4-6 week period where the lakes are frozen, regardless of indices. Maybe it's even more than 4-6 weeks in the better winters (imagine that!), but the big issue is stability and the feeling of winter. We just don't have it here - it can't be counted on. 

[Stevo6899]

Different strokes. Josh always keeps his expectations low which is smart if you're a big dog fan in metro detroit. I've learned we can't do anything about it so it's useless to get all bent outta shape when we have a winter like this current one. Ya got 3 months and to expect to cash in a legit storm more than once or twice is unrealistic expectations. 

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Disclaimer: Tenor of the post is as a fellow weenie, separate from you and your colleagues being valued NWS employees...

The issue, as always, is that our expectations are so low. When people resign themselves to the fact that 10 days of winter (regardless of ENSO state or various indices) is acceptable, where does that leave us?  Even if the 10-day stretch is really good (in this case I'd give it a B or B+ since our friends in the city missed out and it had the potential to be even better), would we ever be ok with 10 days of summer?  In summer, people don't care about the indices - it's just summer.  Sure, some patterns can be 70s and humid and others can be 90s and dry, but it still feels like summer either way simply because of the calendar.

Can't chalk it all up to a strong El Nino.  Last year didn't feature that, but the winter was still horrible. It's maddening to have to depend on the perfect alphabet soup of indices to get winter.  Shouldn't the calendar be enough?

Our problem is temps, not precip/snow. A day with a high of 15F in January shouldn't be a big deal.  Sure, it's a bit cold...but nothing crazy.  The problem is that it needs to be offset by another day with a high of 45F, since our average high in Jan is 30F.  The good patterns can be really good, but it's short-lived and everything else is bad.  Would have been nice to follow up the 10-day good pattern with regular winter, like highs 25-30F and lows in the teens with a bit of snowfall.  Nothing crazy, just some basic winter-type stuff.  But it's always way up and way down.  We never get "normal" winter weather here.  It's either a good pattern which you hope produces in a short window...or nothing.

And it's even worse because all of those comments are referencing Jan, the core of winter.  Dec/Feb are even worse, as average monthly highs are higher, around 35F.

The problem with low expectations is that it makes people think they should be ok with 10 days of winter, when DJF is 91 days long. If that's the case, what's the point of being excited about winter?  So maybe we get to celebrate 20-30 days in winter (instead of 10) with other ENSO states?  Ok...I guess that's a small improvement.

Would be nice to look out the window in DJF and not have to worry about melting.  I don't look out the window between mid-June and mid-Sept and worry about it being cold outside. You may have an occasional cool morning...but 98 times out of 100 it will feel like summer in summer. No one is asking for subzero temps and feet of snow continuously; just a nice 6-8 week stretch of temps mainly in the 10s-20s (even a few afternoons in the 30s, as long as the nights are cold) with at least some accumulating snow in the less productive weeks. I guess we pin our hopes on mid-Feb to mid-Mar, even though it will be tough to keep snow on the ground?  If Dec would have been decent, the current stretch would be more tolerable...but winter was nowhere to be found in the month with the shortest daylight and the holidays. Regardless of how the rest of the winter turns out, it's impossible to recover from that.

We finally get the lakes to freeze around here, then it all goes to ****. Nothing is stable or consistent. There should be a 4-6 week period where the lakes are frozen, regardless of indices. Maybe it's even more than 4-6 weeks in the better winters (imagine that!), but the big issue is stability and the feeling of winter. We just don't have it here - it can't be counted on. 

Great rant. I think overall though most of us on this sub are just a couple hundred miles south of what you're wanting lol. My cottage in central Ontario and those in upper Michigan see the winter you're discussing and then some. I put a belt from about North Georgia-Central MI where you see winter but it doesnt typically last for months on end. South of this belt you get mostly into palm trees and warmth, north of it you get into months of snow and frozen lakes. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Different strokes. Josh always keeps his expectations low which is smart if you're a big dog fan in metro detroit. I've learned we can't do anything about it so it's useless to get all bent outta shape when we have a winter like this current one. Ya got 3 months and to expect to cash in a legit storm more than once or twice is unrealistic expectations. 

My expectations are not centered around big dogs. I am closer to a beavis, but not as extreme. In a strong nino I'd never expect sustained winter, but hope for periods of it. Just because you enjoy the fun times (ie the last 2 weeks) doesn't mean you're satisfied or expectations met. Which is where I don't understand where beavis is going. Who of the winter lovers is saying their satisfied? It's a subpar winter all around, especially in most or the Northwoods, but doesn't mean you can't enjoy the fun when it's here. 

[cyclone77]

Looks like zero precip for the next 12+ days.  Was a fun stretch but looks very boring going forward.