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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

bad take.

ORD finished slightly above normal in snowfall for Oct and Nov, and will now do the same for Jan.

obviously it has been a torch temp wise until the past week or so, but snowfall wise it is as expected.

I mean its a Nino too, what do people expect? At this point take the wins as you can get them.

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Grasping at straws I know but considering what's coming, the Euro has something nice at the end of it's run.  I'll take it.
The EPS was not as bad as the GEFS in the extended, so considering the volatility in the LR guidance maybe it's not a done deal to be bad at the end of the month. Still would think more like mid February for anything resembling the pattern we've been in though.


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I mean its a Nino too, what do people expect? At this point take the wins as you can get them.
ORD is up to 16.1" (January normal is 11.3") on the month and 20" (normal to date 16.1") on the season, vs. 0.4" in January and 4.7" on the season as of 1/19/2023. We're in decent position to make a run at normal+ for the season, which is definitely a surprise.

We've had consistent snow cover in the suburbs since January 5th. And I doubt we fully melt it out next week unless we get much higher dew points with how glaciated the bottom layer is. Seems possible we keep some snow depth through the end of the month.

Either way, the ORD snowfall data and this long of a stretch of snow cover and cold temps in a strong Niño has to be taken as a win, even though things could've gone even better than they did.


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IMBY - 7.3” to date for 23/24 season vs 4.1” through Jan 19 for 22/23 season. Rather insignificant difference. However, will say that to date I’m a bit more “entertained” by this season. Tough/close breaks locally. But feel there has been a decent amount of opportunity to track, which is half of the fun of being an enthusiast. 

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3 hours ago, mimillman said:

Looks awful through 1st week of Feb. Euro gets 40-50 degree temps into northern Alberta 

and then the dreaded sun angle talks ramp up by mid February. Fun stretch for Strong El Niño standards, but nothing crazy. I would be totally fine punting the rest of the winter. 

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On 1/17/2024 at 3:48 PM, Chicago Storm said:

It was a long road, but we finally have an official SSWE on our hands...

The first period of significant warming in late December and early January, which missed SSWE "criteria", was a significant driving force in the recent/current wintry pattern. This secondary period of significant warming and actual SSWE could lead to a period of interest as we hit the very end of January and head into February. 

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:yikes:

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Well looks like winter is over. Hope everyone enjoyed the last two weeks. Palm tree weather is back and this is the new normal. So get used to it. Soon those two weeks won’t even happen.

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5 minutes ago, torchcity said:

Well looks like winter is over. Hope everyone enjoyed the last two weeks. Palm tree weather is back and this is the new normal. So get used to it. Soon those two weeks won’t even happen.

 

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1 hour ago, torchcity said:

Well looks like winter is over. Hope everyone enjoyed the last two weeks. Palm tree weather is back and this is the new normal. So get used to it. Soon those two weeks won’t even happen.

This guy's like a whack-a-mole..

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He will be gone soon enough and will have to make his 11th account then. Cromartie just so you know none of us want you here too. Maybe take a hint and find a cesspool to go sink into, instead of trying to force your way back.

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He will be gone soon enough and will have to make his 11th account then. Cromartie just so you know none of us want you here too. Maybe take a hint and find a cesspool to go sink into, instead of trying to force your way back.

I’ll never be gone. Better shut down new user registrations. I don’t care what others want. Enjoy your torched winter finale.
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12 hours ago, Stebo said:

He will be gone soon enough and will have to make his 11th account then. Cromartie just so you know none of us want you here too. Maybe take a hint and find a cesspool to go sink into, instead of trying to force your way back.

Lol relax, this is a weather forum sir. 

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