KeenerWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Been more of a silent observer these past few seasons. But anecdotally, I seem to remember the Euro taking a few big L’s last winter. I think… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Been focusing so much on the storm systems kinda forgot about all the cold coming down for next weekend and beyond. The western sub may have a hard time getting above zero for highs Sunday the 14th. Good chance at -teens early the following week. Gonna be a cold slap in the face after the recent warmth we've had going back through December. Whatever snow falls across the sub will be around for awhile it seems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I can only speak for myself, I haven't seen too much trash talking the Euro other than stebos comment and my response. Basically, years ago the Euro used to be the far superior model and recently it seems to not be. Not that it's extra bad or anything, but it's not that juggernaut it once was.I think it's a relative thing. The Euro is still the best model but the other models are better than they were due to computing power. Back when these forums got popular, the Euro was much better across the board, so even if it had similar or more fails, the other models had fewer successes. Another aspect I think of with modeling is the minor drawback of much higher resolution. In complex patterns with multiple moving parts, the error introduced by a higher resolution depictions can multiply in a way that may result in somewhat less stability run to run, such as what we were used to seeing with the Euro. Since the ensemble members themselves are higher resolution, they may be affected as well. I'm speculating, but perhaps this is an issue with the guidance being phase happy, or with handling convection at times? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I think it's a relative thing. The Euro is still the best model but the other models are better than they were due to computing power. Back when these forums got popular, the Euro was much better across the board, so even if it had similar or more fails, the other models had fewer successes. Another aspect I think of with modeling is the minor drawback of much higher resolution. In complex patterns with multiple moving parts, the error introduced by a higher resolution depictions can multiply in a way that may result in somewhat less stability run to run, such as what we were used to seeing with the Euro. Since the ensemble members themselves are higher resolution, they may be affected as well. I'm speculating, but perhaps this is an issue with the guidance being phase happy, or with handling convection at times? Fan view.Euro rode on rep. In my time, I've never seen it support it's accolades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I think it's a relative thing. The Euro is still the best model but the other models are better than they were due to computing power. Back when these forums got popular, the Euro was much better across the board, so even if it had similar or more fails, the other models had fewer successes. Another aspect I think of with modeling is the minor drawback of much higher resolution. In complex patterns with multiple moving parts, the error introduced by a higher resolution depictions can multiply in a way that may result in somewhat less stability run to run, such as what we were used to seeing with the Euro. Since the ensemble members themselves are higher resolution, they may be affected as well. I'm speculating, but perhaps this is an issue with the guidance being phase happy, or with handling convection at times? Thanks! And I agree, high resolution/convection can put unrealistic amounts during snow squalls or thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I think it's a relative thing. The Euro is still the best model but the other models are better than they were due to computing power. Back when these forums got popular, the Euro was much better across the board, so even if it had similar or more fails, the other models had fewer successes.Another aspect I think of with modeling is the minor drawback of much higher resolution. In complex patterns with multiple moving parts, the error introduced by a higher resolution depictions can multiply in a way that may result in somewhat less stability run to run, such as what we were used to seeing with the Euro. Since the ensemble members themselves are higher resolution, they may be affected as well. I'm speculating, but perhaps this is an issue with the guidance being phase happy, or with handling convection at times? Yep, this is exactly what I was talking about. The lack of smoothing because everything is ultra concise, you can sometimes amplify errors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yep, this is exactly what I was talking about. The lack of smoothing because everything is ultra concise, you can sometimes amplify errors. The classic butterfly effect. I also think that the Euro had a couple big wins way back that then pumped its rep. We seem to remember the wins on the big storms and forget the misses, so it was easy to hold it to its "king" moniker. Now that the competition has caught up, its deficiencies become glaring. Will be real interesting to see which model handles the upcoming storm the best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: The classic butterfly effect. I also think that the Euro had a couple big wins way back that then pumped its rep. We seem to remember the wins on the big storms and forget the misses, so it was easy to hold it to its "king" moniker. Now that the competition has caught up, its deficiencies become glaring. Will be real interesting to see which model handles the upcoming storm the best. I think that back in the day it was much better and people remember the wins, but it never really got much better since then while the GFS has actually gotten much better over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Stebo said: I think that back in the day it was much better and people remember the wins, but it never really got much better since then while the GFS has actually gotten much better over time. Yeah, I just still have a bitter taste for the winter after the GFS "upgrade" recently where it was a steaming pile of dogshit. It gave me trust issues, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 We'll have to wait and see how these two storms this week turn out but wow at the modeling a week plus out showing the possible solution to both storms and ensembles mostly staying the course for both storms. Models have really come a long way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The big thing I have noticed is we used to know the model biases much better before but now the amplified errors seem more various. Could just be my perception but that's my observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Anyone else finding themselves over stimulated at the moment?? We went from zzzzz to world in like 4 days LOL. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Anyone else finding themselves over stimulated at the moment?? We went from zzzzz to world in like 4 days LOL. Been a lonnng time since I had to keep multiple storm thread straight at the same time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hopefully we get a couple three weeks of this and it doesn't disappear as quickly as it came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 14 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Hopefully we get a couple three weeks of this and it doesn't disappear as quickly as it came. I would plan a couple weeks active; then it will back off and a period of calmer/warmer (as we roll through the undesired MJO phases); then an active February (the question is where GL/OV or MA/EC or both). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, Lightning said: I would plan a couple weeks active; then it will back off and a period of calmer/warmer (as we roll through the undesired MJO phases); then an active February (the question is where GL/OV or MA/EC or both). Ideally MA/EC for those of us in eastern GL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Ideally MA/EC for those of us in eastern GL. It would be fun to get one of those double barrel systems with a strong easterly flow that push a ton of Atlantic moisture our way. Or maybe another 1993 Superstorm with a track shifted westward up the Spine of the Appalachian mountains. One can dream right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Have yet to record a 1+" daily snowfall of the season as of January 8th. Hate to see that continue well through January, despite a cold outbreak coming next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It's how we roll in Ohio and the Miami Valley....snow hole of the Midwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/7/2024 at 10:49 PM, cyclone77 said: Been focusing so much on the storm systems kinda forgot about all the cold coming down for next weekend and beyond. The western sub may have a hard time getting above zero for highs Sunday the 14th. Good chance at -teens early the following week. Gonna be a cold slap in the face after the recent warmth we've had going back through December. Whatever snow falls across the sub will be around for awhile it seems. The 12z Euro has us subzero for 72 hours straight here - Sun morn to Wed morn. The cold is not quite as sharp on the GFS but longer lasting with single digits starting late Sat. night and that or colder extending the sensible length of the run from there. Even the EPS shows us falling into negatives during the day on Sunday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Spartman said: My favorite thing in the world is these random twitter thread posted here with minimal explanation as to how they would modify sensible weather in the midwest. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/9/2024 at 6:24 AM, Spartman said: Have yet to record a 1+" daily snowfall of the season as of January 8th. Hate to see that continue well through January, despite a cold outbreak coming next week. Interesting. 5th longest streak on record, and longest since the official records have been taken at DAY airport (see below). Looks like it should move into 4th place for sure, maybe third. It would probably be difficult to get another two weeks without 1"+ snowfall on a calendar day to move into second place with the current pattern. Some missing data for the early years, especially the #1 streak, so it might be inflated. But I think that's just some summer months where snowfall wasn't reported and the algorithm interprets that as missing data - but there could be some missing winter data in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: My favorite thing in the world is these random twitter thread posted here with minimal explanation as to how they would modify sensible weather in the midwest. Chat GPT posting habits (I know my posts are also low value but bruh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting. 5th longest streak on record, and longest since the official records have been taken at DAY airport (see below). Looks like it should move into 4th place for sure, maybe third. It would probably be difficult to get another two weeks without 1"+ snowfall on a calendar day to move into second place with the current pattern. Some missing data for the early years, especially the #1 streak, so it might be inflated. But I think that's just some summer months where snowfall wasn't reported and the algorithm interprets that as missing data - but there could be some missing winter data in there as well. Yeah, I just confirmed that 1918-1919 is the only winter without a calendar day snowfall of 1" or greater at DAY. The maximum was 0.6" on a couple of occasions. Of course, this was when observations were still downtown, which is a couple/few hundred feet lower in elevation than the more suburban airport site. Also, snow measuring techniques were different than today [no snowboard/clearing]. Regardless, a top 4 streak looks to be a near certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Spartman said: 12 GFS: I feel you brother. Hoping more favorable patterns in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, Dalfy said: I feel you brother. Hoping more favorable patterns in February same here in indy man. Sucks. Every winter too . Gets old seeing 90% of this forum having the fun while we sit and watch too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorePunch Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like some formidable winter tries to settle in a round the lakes. The palm guy isn’t going to be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, CorePunch said: Looks like some formidable winter tries to settle in a round the lakes. The palm guy isn’t going to be happy. Lakes are gonna cool pretty fast with these temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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