andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The wave in between the first system and the one we’ve been tracking is now too deep/amplified as well. There’s no moisture leftover for that one to be the big storm. Storms with so many moving parts like this tend to be very iffy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, andyhb said: The wave in between the first system and the one we’ve been tracking is now too deep/amplified as well. There’s no moisture leftover for that one to be the big storm. Storms with so many moving parts like this tend to be very iffy. That's what I immediately noticed. The Thursday wave is much stronger this run, which totally blows up the late-week potential. Last night's run was much flatter with this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Would be an absolute shame to see that happen when we finally get quality cold air in place. Models probably going to struggle until they resolve the early week system and the snow pack it lays down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Euro seems to be picking up on what @Stebo and @andyhb iirc mentioned It is a possibility as well but I think this is the basement, it completely flattens the pattern because of amplifying a trailing wave between this storm and the wednesday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If we see the ensembles start to emphasize that in-between shortwave more in the next few runs, then we’ll know it might be curtains for the high end. Going to be difficult to get 3 consecutive waves to amplify significantly regardless of your background regime. Edit: EPS mean still looks rather promising. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 BRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Not a bad look on the EPS and CMCE. Shows the wide range in outcomes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Basically what it comes down to is that 1/11-13 shortwave needs to be the dominant one in the wave train for this potential with this to take off. In other words, it needs to be slower/amplify more in the west prior to ejecting into the Plains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Basically what it comes down to is that 1/11-13 shortwave needs to be the dominant one in the wave train for this potential with this to take off. In other words, it needs to be slower/amplify more in the west prior to ejecting into the Plains. Better.. But still needs to slow down or energy will transfer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z GFS is a higher end share the wealth solution. Ideal track for St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit to get buried. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I agree, 18z GFS would be a wonderful spread the wealth situation for snowfall. Whole region would have a true winter look finally this year. Especially since we will have a nice cold outbreak afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The CIPS analogs start at hour 132, so the best we can do is CPC 6-10 day analogs. The December 1978 analog had 13" in Chicago the last 4 days of the month. Edit: Aside from some of the obvious greats, my knowledge of Midwest snowstorms prior to my time here (started in summer 2010) isn't the best. Any other dates stick out on the analog list? Apparently, the first in that historic series of storms hit right at the end of December '78 as seen by the nice snow cover left on New Years Day 1979. Can't help but notice the similarities with what is happening in this unfolding pattern. The "Blizzard of '79" hit 1/13-14 and was further east so that SEMI was included in the nice accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 hours ago, Roger Smith said: I looked at all the guidance and wondered if perhaps the eventual solution is a very strong low a bit further east like a Euro track with GFS intensity running up into Lake huron rather than Lake michigan. That would be even more similar to 1-26-1978 and would bring heaviest snow and intense blizzard conditions into Indiana and lower michigan although it would still be an extreme event for IL and WI. Would not be anywhere near 54" of snow for STL, perhaps 10-15", the max snowfalls on my proposed track (at GFS intensity) would be 30-40 inches from about s IL to GRR to n lower michigan. All it takes to shift east is a deeper dive of vorticity into TX and recurve into e/c AR and w KY-s IL then n.n.e., 960 low near LAN instead of GRB. In weather history, L huron is of course a magnet for deep lows, beside 1-26-78 there was also 11-09-1913, but I suppose if analogs for further west are sought, how about Nov 1, 1991? Jan 12, 1918 bombed-out from the Gulf states to Huron as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Apparently, the first in that historic series of storms hit right at the end of December '78 as seen by the nice snow cover left on New Years Day 1979. Can't help but notice the similarities with what is happening in this unfolding pattern. The "Blizzard of '79" hit 1/13-14 and was further east so that SEMI was included in the nice accumulations. Such great memories. Every road in Chicago was clogged and caked with snow for weeks. It was the land of Bo in the big city and it was glorious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Every year, we got 1 storm modeled that we all try to compare to 79 or 67 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Every year, we got 1 storm modeled that we all try to compare to 79 or 67 And I love it... Haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Apparently, the first in that historic series of storms hit right at the end of December '78 as seen by the nice snow cover left on New Years Day 1979. Can't help but notice the similarities with what is happening in this unfolding pattern. The "Blizzard of '79" hit 1/13-14 and was further east so that SEMI was included in the nice accumulations. At Detroit, it was 6 inches of snow plus ice. The winter of 1978-79 actually had below average snowfall in Detroit (35.6"), while Chicago had records snowfall. Still with the bitter cold and snowcover it was a pretty harsh winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Jan 12, 1918 bombed-out from the Gulf states to Huron as well. A fierce blizzard. although only 5 inches of snowfall at Detroit temperatures plummeted to −16°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: A fierce blizzard. although only 5 inches of snowfall at Detroit temperatures plummeted to −16°. 1917-18 was an historic cold and snowy winter for the OHV/S. Lakes. I think there was a substantial snow pack already when that hit. Much like the 78 bliz, impacts were magnified across SMI and OH. And just like 78, it wasn't forecast to bomb-out to Huron, but to take a more typical path eastward. It also may be one, if not the first storm where rescuing stranded motorists (yes in their state of the art Model T's) was a modern day phenomenon that made newspaper articles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You know you've had shit luck with big dogs when we gotta go back to 78 to talk about a historic storm that dropped only 5 inches in detroit. Meanwhile chicago crew only gotta go back 12 years. East coast a few years. Minneapolis 13 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: You know you've had shit luck with big dogs when we gotta go back to 78 to talk about a historic storm that dropped only 5 inches in detroit. Meanwhile chicago crew only gotta go back 12 years. East coast a few years. Minneapolis 13 years.... I will be forever chasing 2011. So epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: Minneapolis 13 years.... We’ve had a few good ones recently. April 13-16 2018 15.8” January 2-5 2023 15.1” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: 1917-18 was an historic cold and snowy winter for the OHV/S. Lakes. I think there was a substantial snow pack already when that hit. Much like the 78 bliz, impacts were magnified across SMI and OH. And just like 78, it wasn't forecast to bomb-out to Huron, but to take a more typical path eastward. It also may be one, if not the first storm where rescuing stranded motorists (yes in their state of the art Model T's) was a modern day phenomenon that made newspaper articles. It was more historic in the Ohio Valley. definitely a bit of a cold winter here, but snowfall itself was not impressive. There was a decent snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: You know you've had shit luck with big dogs when we gotta go back to 78 to talk about a historic storm that dropped only 5 inches in detroit. Meanwhile chicago crew only gotta go back 12 years. East coast a few years. Minneapolis 13 years.... Detroit had 16.7" Feb 1/2, 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It was more historic in the Ohio Valley. definitely a bit of a cold winter here, but snowfall itself was not impressive. There was a decent snowpack. Perhaps Detroit proper got screwed a bit which seems common with the stronger storms tracking near there, but other areas west in The Mitt were pummeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This 00z GFS 150 hour depiction looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 That was a pretty good run for most of the Great Lakes region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 56 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Perhaps Detroit proper got screwed a bit which seems common with the stronger storms tracking near there, but other areas west in The Mitt were pummeled. Those are neat pics! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Detroit had 16.7" Feb 1/2, 2015. Indys luck sucks too. 1978 last really big one. I think the biggest storm ever was over 16 inches in like 1910 or something lol. Southern Indiana even had a historic storm with the Pre Christmas 2004 Storm where some places got 24-30" plus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Shame about this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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