andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, OHweather said: Normally when I make a blog post I repurpose it a bit and upload it here as well, but I need to go in and delete attachments to make room for uploads and I also need to go to bed. So, I'll simply provide a link to the post. The tldr for the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is: A very active pattern with a -PNA and deepening cold out west continues through next weekend, with the cold air likely getting pulled in next weekend as a retrograding -NAO forces the cold air into the eastern US The air dropping into the west later next week into next weekend will be arctic and legitimately frigid. It will modify a bit before getting to this region but certainly not too much The cutter this Monday-Tuesday looks very robust and a swath of heavy, wet snow seems likely with it The storm Friday-Saturday will probably cut as well, but with more blocking in front of it and increased polar vortex influence may have more front-end snow and may have more room to trend suppressed if there's too much polar influence. That storm has high-end impact potential After that storm the storm track likely gets more suppressed. There may be a brief window for a wave to affect the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys around January 15-16 if the cold air isn't too suppressive. There may be clipper/lake effect potential for a brief window when the cold is most entrenched The pattern likely trends more zonal after January 20th with temperatures trending seasonal to slightly mild. While it will be harder to see an amplified/phased storm, the pattern will remain active with west-east moving systems. It won't be a torch, so some snow potential probably lingers through this milder spell, especially farther north Factors may align for a western ridge and more high latitude blocking the very end of January through the first half of February Regarding Friday-Saturday's storm, some really impressive ingredients in place: A prolonged cross-polar flow pulls Siberian air and a large chunk of the tropospheric polar vortex into Canada this upcoming week, with that airmass radiationally cooling and deepening over relatively fresh snowpack over western and central Canada. There's also some cold air getting pulled into the Great Lakes ahead of the storm, increasing potential for front end snow north of the approaching low. The arctic air building over Canada drops in behind the storm with a warm and humid airmass getting drawn up ahead of it: For good measure, these 3 pieces of energy in the arctic, polar, and sub-tropical jets will all potentially phase and the PV lobe may get pulled in as well, depending on where it is: This is an absolute powder keg of a set-up, if all 3 pieces phase and part of the PV gets pulled in it would be a high-end blizzard for someone. I would caution, however, that as exciting as the set-up appears to be that PVs don't always play nice with these set-ups and there is expected to be a retrograding -NAO in front of the storm. There's a chance this trends more suppressed, and the 0z EPS members are all over the place with the placement and minimum pressure with the low: The spread is to be expected this far out and there are a number of members that are nukes, into the 950s or 960s, but we will need to watch how the polar vortex looks to interact with the storm and if there's any suppressive influence or not. Thanks for saying all of this more eloquently than I can. Yeah the difference in the ensemble means (particularly the GEFS from the GEPS and EPS) in handling the PV interaction makes me think that this main wave needs to amplify in the west initially to avoid a) sliding east/south and turning into a nor’easter and b) getting suppressed to the point of a lesser event. CMC operational showed the former. If the timing is right though, the Euro, GFS, and what would be the UK just beyond range are the types of potential you look for once a decade essentially. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 hours ago, andyhb said: That would be rivaling the Blizzard of 1978 for the most severe on record in the Midwest. I say that with an entirely straight face. I don’t recall if I’ve ever seen a 60+ mb gradient in my life quite like that. 1045 MB high in WCAN and a 970 MB low rushing through the GL is prolific. The thing that made ‘78 so special was that the arctic jet was basically brought down to the surface, wind gusts topped 100 mph over Lake Erie with sustained winds topping out at 80 in Cleveland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I looked at all the guidance and wondered if perhaps the eventual solution is a very strong low a bit further east like a Euro track with GFS intensity running up into Lake huron rather than Lake michigan. That would be even more similar to 1-26-1978 and would bring heaviest snow and intense blizzard conditions into Indiana and lower michigan although it would still be an extreme event for IL and WI. Would not be anywhere near 54" of snow for STL, perhaps 10-15", the max snowfalls on my proposed track (at GFS intensity) would be 30-40 inches from about s IL to GRR to n lower michigan. All it takes to shift east is a deeper dive of vorticity into TX and recurve into e/c AR and w KY-s IL then n.n.e., 960 low near LAN instead of GRB. In weather history, L huron is of course a magnet for deep lows, beside 1-26-78 there was also 11-09-1913, but I suppose if analogs for further west are sought, how about Nov 1, 1991? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 06Z GFS deepens 13mb in 6 hours, goes from 984mb at FH165 to 971mb at FH171 and still rapidly deepening. Edit: 967mb over the southern tip of Lake Michigan at FH177, then goes right up the spine of the lake, still deepening. This is the type of storm that sinks ships. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, nwohweather said: I don’t recall if I’ve ever seen a 60+ mb gradient in my life quite like that. 1045 MB high in WCAN and a 970 MB low rushing through the GL is prolific. The thing that made ‘78 so special was that the arctic jet was basically brought down to the surface, wind gusts topped 100 mph over Lake Erie with sustained winds topping out at 80 in Cleveland The winds could be awesome for seiche in Erie. But overall that was maybe the worst run of the gfs ive seen haha. Central and Western Lakes cash and Eastern Lakes gets nothing. Id rather warmth instead of cold and bare ground haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Nov 1, 1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 After looking at the 6z GFS, that’s back to back runs of 30+ inches at ORD in the next 8 days. If the 12z does the same, that’s “officially” a streak. Let’s go for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Loving the Central IL nugget Stebo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Ready 2 crown joe if this one delivers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 ^^^ more analysis like this please.. it is why I come here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 RipFirst winter in the new neighborhood a few miles north of town. Old farm field. Up on a hill. Should be a blast regardless but what a ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The elusive triple phaser has resurfaced... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, Stebo said: The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way. Gfs looking like you may be onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Gfs looking like you may be onto something... It will keep changing so I am not going to take a bow by any stretch here, it could easily suppress further south or go back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Goal posts are defined . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On this morning's GFS, ridging builds into the west coast region, which shoves the trough farther east. Meanwhile, the Canadian went the opposite way, anchoring the trough in the pacnw, which allows the storm to cut farther nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 CMC has swapped with the GFS and has moved north with the big storm. As long as it doesn't go poof the next few days we should all be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Stebo said: It will keep changing so I am not going to take a bow by any stretch here, it could easily suppress further south or go back north. Yea suppression is always the worry in El nino. Obviously like you said, until that midweek system rolls through, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Not saying it will happen but the pattern does have great potential There are quite a bit of similarities to another monster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That track looks awfully alike to the Jan 5-6 2014 storm... Could we have a redux?? Its possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Not saying it will happen but the pattern does have great potential There are quite a bit of similarities to another monster Of course I'm jealous of our Chicago friends for Tuesday, but it's really looking to me similar to our March 3rd storm. It will be fun as hell when it's ongoing but there's really no cold air with it or behind it. However, whatever does happen next Friday and Saturday, there's a ton of cold air on its heels. Definitely potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: That track looks awfully alike to the Jan 5-6 2014 storm... Could we have a redux?? Its possible. 10 years ago, today, we had −50° wind chills, 16" of snow on the ground... and it was only the beginning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: 10 years ago, today, we had −50° wind chills, 16" of snow on the ground... and it was only the beginning. I feel we talk about it every winter but that's about as nasty as I've seen it around here. Deep snow, arctic temps. I doubt we'll see that ever again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I was going to ask if 1/5/14 “Polar Vortex Blizzard” would be a potential analog for next weeks setup. One of my favorite storms of the last decade. What a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: I was going to ask if 1/5/14 “Polar Vortex Blizzard” would be a potential analog for next weeks setup. One of my favorite storms of the last decade. What a beast. Kind of but the difference is this vort is more pacific originating and dives further south, its a loose analog though with the shape of the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 46 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: That track looks awfully alike to the Jan 5-6 2014 storm... Could we have a redux?? Its possible. That would be awesome. Was a really long duration event it felt like also. Cars got buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Man! The 12Z G-spot was a cold run as well. Great follow up to a giant spread the wealth pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z Euro is a total bust because the shortwave doesn’t amplify and just slides east. Number one concern with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro seems to be picking up on what @Stebo and @andyhb iirc mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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