A-L-E-K Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: A paste bomb with wind could be very high impact if the SLP comes in anywhere close to as deep as recent Euro and GFS op runs and many ensemble members. The system doesn't look all that progressive to me as modeled relative to other past higher end synoptic systems. Your point about lack of cold air is certainly valid though. With the south buoy still 43 degrees, and unlikely to cool off more than a couple degrees over the next week, could make for white rain on the lakeshore and a few to several miles inland until winds turn offshore. Think the November 25-26, 2018 snowstorm. thanks for the reply friend and progressive was the wrong word to use, from experience imby big dogs usually have some combination of early high ratio fgen and lake effect/enhancement in addition to whatever what main synoptic setup delivers. Both don't really look in play here and with marginal early thermals some of the early qpf is going to trash which leaves us dependent on the sub 980 slp to make the dream happen, not saying it can't happen but doesn't feel like a lot of wiggle room here on the plus side, patterns seem to lock in so hoping this flip is legit and we can get a train of cutters going for once 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: the general agreement at 500 for a deep slp with a classic track looks great but I fear a lack of cold air and progressive nature are gonna keep this from being too interesting, ymmv and would love to be wrong looks like actual cold available for whatever comes next which will be nice My exact concerns esp with the antecedent temps. Afraid most/all of the front end thump will be rain or mix which will hold back snow amounts some. Looks like dynamic cooling and cooler temps filtering in from nw in the deformation axis will be main if not only player for heavy snow. So we really will need that low to deepen sufficiently to wrap up that deformation band. Regardless could still be a high impact event with blizzard like conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: My exact concerns esp with the antecedent temps. Afraid most/all of the front end thump will be rain or mix which will hold back snow amounts some. Looks like dynamic cooling and cooler temps filtering in from nw in the deformation axis will be main if not only player for heavy snow. So we really will need that low to deepen sufficiently to wrap up that deformation band. Regardless could still be a high impact event with blizzard like conditions. A lot like last March 3rd storm for SEMI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: A lot like last March 3rd storm for SEMI I could certainly see a redux of that storm being the outcome with this one if thermals are marginal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z gfs evolution synoptically looks amazing but cold sector qpf seems to only be high in a very narrow corridor. The deformation band seemed kind of splotchy over a large area at first and then a more intense band close to low track which resulted in a wide swath of 1-3in and very narrow band of 6in+. Maybe some dry air issues? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 not gonna get it done with a cold sector like this half 'cane but for continental mid winter cyclones 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: not gonna get it done with a cold sector like this Is that why the qpf is pretty meager except in narrow corridor? I been looking at the relative humidity and it looked fine from sfc up through 500mb. Surprised llj would be ripping on nw side with low like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I've still got a feeling the first storm this weekend trends more NW to brush NIL with some moderate snows. That'll then have an effect on larger storm afterwards I would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z euro doing similar situation to 12z gfs. Very limited cold sector precip for IL. Interesting turn on models today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z EPS seems to still look fine based on mean QPF and low track. Not worth putting much stock into a single run at this point anyways. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yes, 12Zs backed off on things a bit but how could they not after the insane 06Z run (for GFS at least)? 972 mb over Memphis goes in the weenie run hall of fame. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Plenty of specific (some no doubt frustrating) to be ironed out but just looking at the general long-range, what a change from just a week ago.. Winter is returning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12Z UKMET buries the system in the southeast. It forms a dominant 850 mb low in Louisiana with the surface low along the coast at hour 168. It is a bit further north than the 0Z which had cyclogenesis starting way down there in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Hopefully something good in the next two weeks. Looks too warm to start though . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Big dog on the 18z GFS. Who's going to make the channel for it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12Z EPS SLP track is text book for the NW half of the sub with a track from Cinci to CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z GFS would have I-55 and north under a foot of snow by a week from Friday. Talk about a pattern switch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 44 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 18z GFS would have I-55 and north under a foot of snow by a week from Friday. Talk about a pattern switch. Regardless of what happens locally next Tuesday, I'm loving the active look going forward. What a change from December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z GFS is about as good as it gets for the next 2 weeks for a good chunk of the subforum. Pretty good spread the wealth with the exception of maybe the far northern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: 18z GFS is about as good as it gets for the next 2 weeks for a good chunk of the subforum. Pretty good spread the wealth with the exception of maybe the far northern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Yep. For having maps that had no snow through the entire run, this is a solid look. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep. For having maps that had no snow through the entire run, this is a solid look. Ready 2 roof-rake. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 hours ago, Spartman said: posting BAN weather takes is bold. You've been a burr in the saddle for eons. I'd say posting this shit in this forum after 2 years of snow and cold drought when we're finally seeing something good is going to bring out the torches and pitchforks crowd. I'm all for it. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, Baum said: posting BAN weather takes is bold. You've been a burr in the saddle for eons. I'd say posting this shit in this forum after 2 years of snow and cold drought when we're finally seeing something good is going to bring out the torches and pitchforks crowd. I'm all for it. You and I have been on this forum for years and seen our share of a-holes. These post are not of ill intent and far from what we've seen before, plus on topic. It's a weather forum and we are all pretty much nerds(Never, Ending, Radical, Dudes) so just relax a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: You and I have been on this forum for years and seen our share of a-holes. These post are not of ill intent and far from what we've seen before, plus on topic. It's a weather forum and we are all pretty much nerds(Never, Ending, Radical, Dudes) so just relax a bit. Agreed.And my post was intended for a touch of humor moreso than anything else.But let's face it Spartman's rep for map posting minus commentary never helped his cause. Maybe he should change is screen name to "eyes without a face"- more humor. Anyway, BAM weather is really not a legit source.What's going to get posted next Judith Cohen. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 BAM weather sucks and always has 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Another noteworthy system looks to come sweeping through the region after this upcoming one. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some spots have a top 10 snowiest January, maybe even top 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Another noteworthy system looks to come sweeping through the region after this upcoming one. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some spots have a top 10 snowiest January, maybe even top 5 I'm not sure what will end up happening, but the gfs has been hellbent on having an absolute parade of systems 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm not sure what will end up happening, but the gfs has been hellbent on having an absolute parade of systems Interesting I wonder if this is the set up that happened in 09-10 Niagara/Toronto proper miss south on some and get rain on the cutters. Got 3 days in a row with some snow cover though which is a nice win. That New Years system gave just enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Interesting I wonder if this is the set up that happened in 09-10 Niagara/Toronto proper miss south on some and get rain on the cutters. Got 3 days in a row with some snow cover though which is a nice win. That New Years system gave just enough In 2010 February was a very active month here. We had a light dusting of snow last night, which was the first white on the ground since Nov 30th. 5 days in Nov had some snow on the ground vs none in Dec. Better times ahead tho! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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