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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


i’ll throw up a zzzzz to that.


.

Good one lol. Sarcasm aside I really do think this thread should be met-led. Don't want to sound like I'm jumping the gun but we only get so many of these chances and I think we should make it a point to let someone who actually knows what's up decide when the time is right

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The signal for a powerful storm is something else at this lead time. We received word that there will be Pacific recon flights this winter to help with upper air data for the models. Hopefully that helps make for a better forecast farther out.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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First storm stays SE and east coast gets a pretty solid snowstorm. Moves out quick which allows heights to rise in the middle of the country for the next system to go NW. The euro intensifies the second system but it moves ENE instead of shooting nw of chicago, which you usually see with a strenghtneing low below 980 in missouri. Perhaps blocking?

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Ensemble means continue to indicate the potential for a higher end event late this weekend into early next week. Pretty expansive area of significant snowfall on the means, and a solid chunk of the members really bomb the surface low out into the 970s. Would suggest fairly widespread blizzard conditions are possible.

Looks to be a potential coast to coast storm as well and should certainly help the snowpack out west. I do like how the cold air is there but not overwhelming, which would suggest less potential for the surface low to get suppressed by excess high pressure in its developmental stages.

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4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

As in that's something to look out for or a solution you consider to be unlikely?

It is possible, albeit I’d put the probability of such an outcome on the lower side given an occlusion that far south is a relative rarity.

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16 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Low occludes too early on the 18z GFS.

Will be interesting to see the differences in the 18z deterministic vs ensemble mean.  

12z GFS looked like it was one of the furthest outliers from its ensemble mean both in terms of low placement and strength.  The Euro was within a higher confidence of its ensemble mean, and both the GEFS and EPS means were close in placement and strength..

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the general agreement at 500 for a deep slp with a classic track looks great but I fear a lack of cold air and progressive nature are gonna keep this from being too interesting, ymmv and would love to be wrong

looks like actual cold available for whatever comes next which will be nice

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the general agreement at 500 for a deep slp with a classic track looks great but I fear a lack of cold air and progressive nature are gonna keep this from being too interesting, ymmv and would love to be wrong
looks like actual cold available for whatever comes next which will be nice
A paste bomb with wind could be very high impact if the SLP comes in anywhere close to as deep as recent Euro and GFS op runs and many ensemble members. The system doesn't look all that progressive to me as modeled relative to other past higher end synoptic systems.

Your point about lack of cold air is certainly valid though. With the south buoy still 43 degrees, and unlikely to cool off more than a couple degrees over the next week, could make for white rain on the lakeshore and a few to several miles inland until winds turn offshore. Think the November 25-26, 2018 snowstorm.


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