michsnowfreak Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 4 hours ago, Stebo said: I mean a weaker SSW should be colder than what we have been dealing with. Oh for sure. We dont need anomalous cold in winter to get snow. I just meant that is interesting food for thought that the stronger the SSW the more suppression. Makes sense though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Anything in the teleconnections that would support the powerhouse being shown on the last several runs of the GFS around the 1/9-10 timeframe? Location, type and ceiling of impacts all way up in the air at this range of course, but a system of that caliber would certainly be very interesting to track regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Anything in the teleconnections that would support the powerhouse being shown on the last several runs of the GFS around the 1/9-10 timeframe? Location, type and ceiling of impacts all way up in the air at this range of course, but a system of that caliber would certainly be very interesting to track regardless. Long long way off but the consistency for something big showing up in that time frame off the op GFS is interesting. End of the op Euro run, but has a nice look to it as well. Certainly seems like a good chance we'll finally have something to track with this. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 It's pretty desperate times when grapsing at a *potential* system 10+ days out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, Powerball said: It's pretty desperate times when grapsing at a *potential* system 10+ days out... Certainly not grasping at it, just mentioning it. Verbatim a lot of the runs suggest (heavy) rain if anything for most of us. I'd be fine with armchair chasing a winter Dixie outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Turning the page to January at least there are more wintry threats on the models and ensembles. Baby steps! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Certainly not grasping at it, just mentioning it. Verbatim a lot of the runs suggest (heavy) rain if anything for most of us. I'd be fine with armchair chasing a winter Dixie outbreak. I know. I'm mostly teasing. In the process of moving, so I'm actually liking the dry/sunny weather we've had down here (even though it's been too cold for my liking). If the broader pattern can stay the way it has been through at least the end of next weekend, I'll be a happy camper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, Powerball said: I know. I'm mostly teasing. In the process of moving, so I'm actually liking the dry/sunny weather we've had down here (even though it's been too cold for my liking). If the broader pattern can stay the way it has been through at least the end of next weekend, I'll be a happy camper. Ooof!!! I just realized this December is possibly on track for a top 5 warmest at DFW (even though it hasn't felt like it in the past week). I've really lost my tolerance for non-Summer temps, lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Long long way off but the consistency for something big showing up in that time frame off the op GFS is interesting. End of the op Euro run, but has a nice look to it as well. Certainly seems like a good chance we'll finally have something to track with this. With a downstream -NAO, could see some modulation of the shortwave trajectory. Alternatively, even if the potential/probable system in the 9th-10th timeframe ends up a more wound up cutter, that could serve to shunt the baroclinic zone farther southeast. Since western troughing will persist with the -PNA, we should see follow-up waves ejecting out and then the -NAO could stand to benefit us. Both the EPS and GEFS last night were strongly hinting at an active 2nd week of January, so there should be few chances to get something decent. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 You nerds ready to suffer some more emotional damage cause it's coming 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Per LOT extended range courtesy our very own: Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned. Castro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Can hear the eurythmics now 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Per LOT extended range courtesy our very own: Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned. CastroFor much of the LOT CWA, one of the more impressive EPS 10:1 snow means for our area in the day 8-15, with the 48 hour at about 5" valid ending Wednesday evening Jan 13th and about 6-8" across the Chicago metro for the 7 day period ending 00z 1/15. Given the look at the end of both the EPS and GEFS, as discussed in the AFD, regardless of how the potential big storm plays out early in the week, barring major changes, we will have additional opportunities, perhaps several, and a good chunk of the sub-forum could get in on the fun. The nice thing to see was the trend toward more of a -EPO with the continued -NAO/-AO that would keep a steady supply of cold air from our source region along with helping keep eastern mid-level heights in check amidst the continued active -PNA pattern. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 hours ago, Malacka11 said: You nerds ready to suffer some more emotional damage cause it's coming Certainly looks like more wintry times are ahead! It will be such a refreshing change of pace to see the complaints centered around storm tracks, rain/snow lines, overdone qpf etc versus no wintry weather in sight for anywhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I'd say the second week of January is looking about as good as it could at this point. While this period has always looked more interesting, there were some question-marks regarding exactly how much cold could build into North America, how favorable or unfavorable the western U.S. pattern would be and if there'd be enough blocking to overcome it. The persistent -NAO and -PNA signal has been solid on the ensembles for a few days, with decent trends towards a -EPO and overall more -AO as well. This would fill western Canada and the Rockies with legitimately cold air with an active storm track from the central Plains towards the Great Lakes, kicked off by the possible cutter around January 9-10th. This pattern looks most conducive from the central Plains through the mid-upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast, though with it turning colder and more active the potential for a bit of snow will also increase (relative to what we've seen so far this season) into the Ohio Valley. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 I'd say the second week of January is looking about as good as it could at this point. While this period has always looked more interesting, there were some question-marks regarding exactly how much cold could build into North America, how favorable or unfavorable the western U.S. pattern would be and if there'd be enough blocking to overcome it. The persistent -NAO and -PNA signal has been solid on the ensembles for a few days, with decent trends towards a -EPO and overall more -AO as well. This would fill western Canada and the Rockies with legitimately cold air with an active storm track from the central Plains towards the Great Lakes, kicked off by the possible cutter around January 9-10th. This pattern looks most conducive from the central Plains through the mid-upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast, though with it turning colder and more active the potential for a bit of snow will also increase (relative to what we've seen so far this season) into the Ohio Valley.Beat me to it, as I was going to type up something while I’m the train this afternoon heading downtown.This is the first evolution of the new pattern, which some may even consider a new pattern in itself. Winter lovers, your time has come. I’ll be boxing up the palm tree this week.One tidbit of note is that we will be falling short of SSWE “criteria”. But it doesn’t even matter in the end, given the substantial amount of warming and disruption there currently is and will continue to be for a while. As you mention, the high latitude blocking is being shown consistently (And at times fairly significant looking), and the effects of the warming appear as though they will be real.. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 That storm on the Euro/GFS/ensembles in the second week of January is a monster. A bit of a shame that moisture is cut off by the preceding system about 36-48 hours prior, but the ensembles are pretty locked it for high impact potential across a pretty large expanse of real estate. One may be concerned about the degree of suppression if all of the cold becomes involved at once, the STJ dominates, and/or the surface reflection isn’t as strong initially. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Lol omg. Euro. I wish you were still king! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 That euro run be p hot. Probably should get a thread rolling 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: That euro run be p hot. Probably should get a thread rolling Not. Yet!!! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Impressive EPS mean for that far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I think we should elect a thread starter beforehand so that it's all official if we actually get that far, and I think it should be one of the wizards that have been dropping all the knowledge in here lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, andyhb said: Impressive EPS mean for that far out. Hard 2 hate on this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/28/2023 at 6:44 AM, A-L-E-K said: Wake up, loop euro, nothing cooking, post some zzzzzs, repeat Alek how about you start the thread when we get to that point 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 #rdy2bburied 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Looking at the 12z runs 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: Looking at the 12z runs Future winner in 2024 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 30 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Alek how about you start the thread when we get to that point I figured it'd be between him and HandPalmGuy, or whatever his name is LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 Alek how about you start the thread when we get to that pointi’ll throw up a zzzzz to that.. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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