Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

As for the rest here from the last few days, good stuff and you can already see some hints of the change in the longer range. I still worry about going warm and dry to cold and dry but beyond that it does look colder about a week out from now.

I'd rather take my chances in a cold and dry scenario.  Given the right setup maybe the lake can help produce some snow.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

Ll

Translation from Mr Richman

"Be careful of clickbait on social media that outlines reasons why a step down process and turn towards colder, more wintry weather is likely coming up in January and beyond. Instead, listen to my advice, which includes no reasoning and just a blanket statement that a strong el nino means cold stays to the northwest (which is not even correct)".

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Translation from Mr Richman

"Be careful of clickbait on social media that outlines reasons why a step down process and turn towards colder, more wintry weather is likely coming up in January and beyond. Instead, listen to my advice, which includes no reasoning and just a blanket statement that a strong el nino means cold stays to the northwest (which is not even correct)".

Yeah. cold staying northwest is La Nina. That was the pattern last winter. lol. So much misinformation everywhere these days.

[DocATL]

Ll

This is incomplete information. I would expect a pattern change but not until the end of January. We will have to get through the warm MJO phases. The PV likely goes to Europe as it seems that is the hot hand in recent years.


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[Spartman]

2 hours ago, mittenwx said:

Brutal 12Z GFS.  Keeps the endless party of 40s going well into January.  No sign of any cold.  I'd trust Ryan Wichman at this point over the hypers.

Wonder if the cutoff low just screwed up the opportunity for the "pattern change" that was supposed to occur next week.

Only have 0.8" of snow so far for '23-24, all during this December. Wonder if '23-24 will be one of those seasons where it ends up with single-digit snowfall totals by spring.

[Chicago Storm]

22 minutes ago, DocATL said:

This is incomplete information. I would expect a pattern change but not until the end of January. We will have to get through the warm MJO phases. The PV likely goes to Europe as it seems that is the hot hand in recent years.


.

The pattern change is already occurring, with additional evolution likely with time.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Wonder if the cutoff low just screwed up the opportunity for the "pattern change" that was supposed to occur next week.

Only have 0.8" of snow so far for '23-24, all during this December. Wonder if '23-24 will be one of those seasons where it ends up with single-digit snowfall totals by spring.

The cutoff low in some form or another has been predicted for a while. I do think the best times will be later in january into February. But I saw someone else say this and it's so true: a lot of people don't think the pattern has changed unless they're shoveling.

[DocATL]

The pattern change is already occurring, with additional evolution likely with time.

True…yes we are out of the ridiculously warm pattern.


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[Frog Town]

5 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Ll

This is not a recent post from Ryan Wichman as I know him personally and he has not made this post recently.  Must be really old or from a different account. 

[rainsucks]

that storm near the end of the 18z GFS run would put both GHD blizzards to shame. I understand there’s next to zero chance of it verifying, but still fun to look at.

[cyclone77]

21 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

that storm near the end of the 18z GFS run would put both GHD blizzards to shame. I understand there’s next to zero chance of it verifying, but still fun to look at.

Lock it in!

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Baum]

29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

The drums are beating louder for change by the day.

[A-L-E-K]

Wake up, loop euro, nothing cooking, post some zzzzzs, repeat 

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Wake up, loop euro, nothing cooking, post some zzzzzs, repeat 

I don't take my "change vibes" from one run of an operational model that rarely would fully encompass a major pattern change.And of course, neither do you. And it's been fully well documented here. Time to hop aboard the "change" train, my friend. Zzzzzz's leaving the station.

[IWXwx]

You're both right and you both know it. Pattern change is not necessarily immediately accompanied by a change in sensible weather. Operationals depict going from WAD to seasonal and dry. However, I am encouraged by the fact that at least there is a better opportunity for interesting weather down the road and in fact the Euro may begin to show something in a couple of more runs, but in the short-term, yeah, zzzz away.

[Chicago Storm]

Wake up, loop euro, nothing cooking, post some zzzzzs, repeat 

might be time you take a break.


.

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

You're both right and you both know it. Pattern change is not necessarily immediately accompanied by a change in sensible weather. Operationals depict going from WAD to seasonable and dry. However, I am encouraged by the fact that at least there is a better opportunity for interesting weather down the road and in fact the Euro may begin to show something in a couple of more runs, but in the short-term, yeah, zzzz away.

Ya, it's nice to see the change to more seasonal weather. Certainly opens up the door to at least the chance of some snow. The other hand is that it looks pretty boring and the chance of getting anywhere close to normal snowfall on the season is leaving the station fast. 

A few consistent weeks of actual winter in late January-February is what I'm banking on. Couple storms (3"+) and some consistent snow cover 

[mississaugasnow]

Going to be real tough for the Great Lakes to see average ice coverage as well. 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

Going to be real tough for the Great Lakes to see average ice coverage as well. 

That's more than fine, I'd rather have a warm spring than not.

[Spartman]

 

[mississaugasnow]

33 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That's more than fine, I'd rather have a warm spring than not.

Yep, should also help get some decent lake effect into February with the cold air. 

[Stebo]

23 minutes ago, Spartman said:

 

I would disagree that it is backing away, weaker sure. But I actually don't mind a weaker SSW event because I don't want to go from warm and dry to cold and dry. A strong SSW could easily be suppression city.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Going to be real tough for the Great Lakes to see average ice coverage as well. 

More open water could mean more lake effect and lake enhanced snow.

[michsnowfreak]

35 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would disagree that it is backing away, weaker sure. But I actually don't mind a weaker SSW event because I don't want to go from warm and dry to cold and dry. A strong SSW could easily be suppression city.

Interesting thoughts. You think a weaker SSW would favor colder but LESS suppression than a strong one?

[sbnwx85]

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

might be time you take a break.


.

Maybe just change it up with a humorous meme like this.

[Radtechwxman]

22 hours ago, Frog Town said:

This is not a recent post from Ryan Wichman as I know him personally and he has not made this post recently.  Must be really old or from a different account. 

I went to school with him actually. Western IL University. He tends to be more conservative with forecasting. 

[michsnowfreak]

Simplifying everything down, it seems both Judah Cohen and Larry Cosgrove are on the train of cooler start to January, milder towards mid month, then the coldest part of winter the 2nd half of January into February.

[Spartman]

From today's AFD from NWS IND:

.Beyond day 7...
Some hints in ensemble guidance of a trend towards a more active
pattern. Longer range guidance has been hinting at a sudden
stratospheric warming event occurring in the Arctic come early to
mid January. This correlates nicely with the Arctic Oscillation
going negative as shown by many ensembles. Will be watching this
closely as this could lead to a period of winter-like weather and
colder temperatures come mid January into February.

 

[Stebo]

21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting thoughts. You think a weaker SSW would favor colder but LESS suppression than a strong one?

I mean a weaker SSW should be colder than what we have been dealing with.