Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Brian D]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I fully expect a hot summer this year in a nino to nina transition. As Ive said before, by far the season that has warmed most here has been summer (esp mins), so I doubt the absence of 90F-heat will grace us 2 years in a row. 

90F+ days (avg is 13) in summers preceding Modoki Ninas

1973– 9 days
1975– 4 days
1983– 21 days
1988– 39 days (most on record)
1998– 10 days
2000– 1 day
2008– 7 days 
2010– 17 days
2016– 23 days

***

Nino to Nina transition years

1954- 17 days

1964- 26 days

1973- 9 days

1988- 39 days

1998- 10 days

2010- 17 days

2016- 23 days

Just looking ahead, July will be the month to watch this summer. If the pattern I see pans, a hot, dry stretch is in the offing in mid July. Expecting 100's. We shall see.  

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Just looking ahead, July will be the month to watch this summer. If the pattern I see pans, a hot, dry stretch is in the offing in mid July. Expecting 100's. We shall see.  

Though we will never see a "dry" heat climate here, if I have to suffer through a hot summer, Id rather have some impressive hot spells, get some actual noteworthy high temps, and some cooler spells intermingled. These summers of almost every day humidity, muggy nights, and no impressive heat are very mundane. Last summer DTW had a max temp of just 90F.

 

And speaking of looking ahead...I will be following the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. To say i feel next winter will be MUCH snowier throughout the Great Lakes/midwest and especially in the northwoods is an understatement. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

The last few sentences of the MPX forecast discussion. Pretty impressive to knock off a record this old and historic.
 

“We don`t want to count the chickens before the eggs hatch, but it`s looking increasingly likely that this winter will knock the winter of 1877-1878 from the top spot of warmest winters on record in the Twin Cities. A crown that winter has worn for 146 years...”

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though we will never see a "dry" heat climate here, if I have to suffer through a hot summer, Id rather have some impressive hot spells, get some actual noteworthy high temps, and some cooler spells intermingled. These summers of almost every day humidity, muggy nights, and no impressive heat are very mundane. Last summer DTW had a max temp of just 90F.

 

And speaking of looking ahead...I will be following the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. To say i feel next winter will be MUCH snowier throughout the Great Lakes/midwest and especially in the northwoods is an understatement. 

You have to go back to 1915 with a max high of 89 degrees, at DTW, to be equal or less than last years 90F max at DTW.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Though we will never see a "dry" heat climate here, if I have to suffer through a hot summer, Id rather have some impressive hot spells, get some actual noteworthy high temps, and some cooler spells intermingled. These summers of almost every day humidity, muggy nights, and no impressive heat are very mundane. Last summer DTW had a max temp of just 90F.

 

And speaking of looking ahead...I will be following the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. To say i feel next winter will be MUCH snowier throughout the Great Lakes/midwest and especially in the northwoods is an understatement. 

All the Canadian Wildfire Smoke you guys dealt with last year definitely contributed to the cooler daytime highs.

I have little doubt DTW sees a max temp this year higher than 90*F.

[roardog]

We need the heat dome to be strong to the south so we can get some interesting weather here during the summer. Being on the edge of the heat is the place to be during the summer. 1995 comes to mind.

[Lightning]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

We need the heat dome to be strong to the south so we can get some interesting weather here during the summer. Being on the edge of the heat is the place to be during the summer. 1995 comes to mind.

Did you have a t-storm year last year?   After the dry June it changed an became active here as we were generally on the edge of the heat dome last year.   Yes I do recall 1995 

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Did you have a t-storm year last year?   After the dry June it changed a became active here as we were generally on the edge of the heat dome last year.   Yes I do recall 1995 

We had quite a few t-storms last summer but it was never really “hot” to the south. If it’s 100F with a dew point of  75F in Chicago and “cool” in central Ontario, that’s when we get the good nocturnal stuff. T-storms developing in northern Minnesota/Wisconsin in the late afternoon means watch out here that night.

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

We had quite a few t-storms last summer but it was never really “hot” to the south. If it’s 100F with a dew point of  75F in Chicago and “cool” in central Ontario, that’s when we get the good nocturnal stuff. T-storms developing in northern Minnesota/Wisconsin in the late afternoon means watch out here that night.

We definitely have lacked good nocturnal/LLJ events in recent years.  There was one really good event last year but it was down here and not up your way.

[SolidIcewx]

10 hours ago, Lightning said:

We definitely have lacked good nocturnal/LLJ events in recent years.  There was one really good event last year but it was down here and not up your way.

Yeah that night SE Mi to Columbus to Cleveland was rocking that night. Storms developing and moving west in Ohio. Also the squall line with tornados. That was a fun 24 hours

[Cary67]

On 2/7/2024 at 2:40 PM, Chicago Storm said:

I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day...

But, for now...

-I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same.
-Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season.
-The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period.
-This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around.
-Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above.
-The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS.

Not sure if this is definitive about a SSW cancel but maybe you have some insight. Post stated 100% of ensembles had a reversal on the SSW with PV remaining intact

[Stebo]

Boy toward the end of the 12z GFS run would be one for the ages with respect to warmth and potential severe weather. That is also in the period where the GEFS is hinting at a significant trough out west ridge in the east.

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Boy toward the end of the 12z GFS run would be one for the ages with respect to warmth and potential severe weather. That is also in the period where the GEFS is hinting at a significant trough out west ridge in the east.

Do you foresee a very warm spring like a 2012 lite? The lakes are virtually ice less, no snowcover in the upper MW for cold shots to penetrate and a collapsing Nino. 

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Boy toward the end of the 12z GFS run would be one for the ages with respect to warmth and potential severe weather. That is also in the period where the GEFS is hinting at a significant trough out west ridge in the east.

Gfs and euro both with nothing of significance snow wise at all. 

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Do you foresee a very warm spring like a 2012 lite? The lakes are virtually ice less, no snowcover in the upper MW for cold shots to penetrate and a collapsing Nino. 

It would be shocking if we jumped to something like that. It doesn't look to remain locked in with a pattern like that but it does show early spring potential.

[roardog]

I remember how both the 2007 and 2016 collapsing Nino had a warm March that turned back to Winter in a big way for the first half of April. I think 1983 did that too. 

[Stebo]

28 minutes ago, roardog said:

I remember how both the 2007 and 2016 collapsing Nino had a warm March that turned back to Winter in a big way for the first half of April. I think 1983 did that too. 

07/16 big severe in May in the plains May 1983 solid everywhere including locally.

[Chicago Storm]

8 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Not sure if this is definitive about a SSW cancel but maybe you have some insight. Post stated 100% of ensembles had a reversal on the SSW with PV remaining intact

Yea, guidance has backed off of showing a full blown SSWE, but we are most definitely seeing significant stratospheric warming. The effects are and will be similar to that of an actual SSWE, with high latitude blocking. However, given the pattern alignment and the lack of MJO support, it is unlikely to bring any consistent, significant, noteworthy, or interesting wintry weather to these parts, at least for the foreseeable future.

[sbnwx85]

I'd love to see the data on late-February heavy lake effect events because I can't imagine there are many. Anyway, here's me grasping at straws for heavy snow in more than a week.

[A-L-E-K]

u know the winter has been a turd when we're still doing the SSWE thing 

 

[Cary67]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

u know the winter has been a turd when we're still doing the SSWE thing 

 

The question of will it snow on Easter has to be dealt with.

[King James]

8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

The question of will it snow on Easter has to be dealt with.

It’ll snow for home opener for both Cubs and Sox. 

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, Stebo said:

07/16 big severe in May in the plains May 1983 solid everywhere including locally.

I was born in May 1983 & never knew that!

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

The question of will it snow on Easter has to be dealt with.

Knowing Easter is March 31st this year, I joked with my mom as we handed out candy to trick or treaters through snow squalls, that with a snowy Halloween, we would have no snow on Christmas and a white Easter. One down...one to go.

[DocATL]

Dud model run after dud model run for northern Illinois.

[pondo1000]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Knowing Easter is March 31st this year, I joked with my mom as we handed out candy to trick or treaters through snow squalls, that with a snowy Halloween, we would have no snow on Christmas and a white Easter. One down...one to go.

Yeah, feel like snow on Halloween seems to be the kiss of death.

[hawkeye_wx]

The op GFS is really blowtorching the end of the month.  It has been showing this for several runs.  Frankly, I hope the heat gets dialed back quite a bit as we get closer.  It's way too early for that.

[Snowstorms]

39 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The op GFS is really blowtorching the end of the month.  It has been showing this for several runs.  Frankly, I hope the heat gets dialed back quite a bit as we get closer.  It's way too early for that.

Yeah would be quite historic too. But the way this winter has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a warm March like 2010 or 2012. 

[Frog Town]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Yeah would be quite historic too. But the way this winter has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a warm March like 2010 or 2012. 

Late February is looking very late '98ish, another very strong Nino year.  

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Yeah would be quite historic too. But the way this winter has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a warm March like 2010 or 2012. 

I'm thinking March starts warm then we get a mid or late month cold snap and someone gets a good snowstorm. Fits well with strong nino climatology, and the cfs is certainly selling that. Of course right now it's all speculation.