DocATL Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Id look for some input from [mention=525]OHweather[/mention] [mention=147]Chicago Storm[/mention] or [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention], but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow!I was thinking that and this morning’s GFS run seemed to suggest that although the 12z was a nothingburger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 28 minutes ago, DocATL said: I was thinking that and this morning’s GFS run seemed to suggest that although the 12z was a nothingburger. . clippers at long range have always been one of the models worst features. Thats why Im interested to see if the pros think its a clipper-producing pattern or just model theatrics on some runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 clippers at long range have always been one of the models worst features. Thats why Im interested to see if the pros think its a clipper-producing pattern or just model theatrics on some runs.It looks like a pattern conducive to clippers but they're never sure things in any given areas. As an example, December 2017 had a good clipper pattern by recent standards but it mostly benefitted Wisconsin and Michigan. I noted the challenge forecasting clippers accurately at longer lead times in the long term AFD the past few days. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Another nail in the coffin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It’s springtime boys 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: It looks like a pattern conducive to clippers but they're never sure things in any given areas. As an example, December 2017 had a good clipper pattern by recent standards but it mostly benefitted Wisconsin and Michigan. I noted the challenge forecasting clippers accurately at longer lead times in the long term AFD the past few days. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Thanks. And yes I remember 2017 well, clipper heaven. Crazy disparity between Chicago (5.3") and Detroit (22.5") that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Do we want to play Clipper Roulette in Chicagoland? So far only the GFS but I’m tempted.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 3:37 AM, Spartman said: Another nail in the coffin All this wintertime warmth at Dayton, and watch, you are probably going to be 89'd all summer long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/7/2024 at 2:40 PM, Chicago Storm said: I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day... But, for now... -I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same. -Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season. -The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period. -This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around. -Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above. -The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS. the GFS completely obliterates the PV as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 2:37 AM, Spartman said: Another nail in the coffin The models (particularly the Euro/Eps) have done a horrendous job in handling the Pacific for a while now, so this is no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 hours ago, rainsucks said: the GFS completely obliterates the PV as well. If this happens forget about any late season wintry weather. You will have no source region for cold at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Thursday thru Saturday us a period to watch for some possible snow, but the finer details and continuity on the models is just terrible at this lead, so not worth going in depth on anything at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 22 minutes ago, Stebo said: If this happens forget about any late season wintry weather. You will have no source region for cold at that point. Sustained? Of course not. But simply getting a late season snow, especially when some of those systems create their own air, don't ever underestimate that in this neck of the woods lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Thursday thru Saturday us a period to watch for some possible snow, but the finer details and continuity on the models is just terrible at this lead, so not worth going in depth on anything at this time.Euro is hardly interested but the GFS is stringing us along…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Sustained? Of course not. But simply getting a late season snow, especially when some of those systems create their own air, don't ever underestimate that in this neck of the woods lol. I get you are trying to have a rosy disposition here, but that look going into March would be a back breaker for potential late season snowfall. No nothing is impossible but that would be a very bad look and kill a lot of cold in our cold source region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 MPX forecast discussions are mentioning even with average temperatures moving forward we will still break the record for warmest winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 literally dreaming of towering cu and summer at this point 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks like 40s-50s through most of next week. Come on spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The trend over the last few days on the ensembles for the last few days of February has been awful. Trending to a -PNA/+EPO and at best a neutral AO and NAO pattern. So the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will trend mild to end this month as cold gets scoured from Canada. That’s not to say it can’t or won’t snow at some point in March, but we’re done with anything sustained at this point. The active stretch in January was fun. The rest has objectively sucked, which is how winters seem to go anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 57 minutes ago, OHweather said: The trend over the last few days on the ensembles for the last few days of February has been awful. Trending to a -PNA/+EPO and at best a neutral AO and NAO pattern. So the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will trend mild to end this month as cold gets scoured from Canada. That’s not to say it can’t or won’t snow at some point in March, but we’re done with anything sustained at this point. The active stretch in January was fun. The rest has objectively sucked, which is how winters seem to go anymore. New climo - 2 weeks of winter preceded and followed by torch. Random 3 week cold snap in late april/early may when we are all fully in spring mode. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: New climo - 2 weeks of winter preceded and followed by torch. Random 3 week cold snap in late april/early may when we are all fully in spring mode. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is WAYYYY longrange, but talking modoki La Nina next year. I looked up what years were considered a modoki La Nina, and they are: 1973–1974 1975–1976 1983–1984 1988–1989 1998–1999 2000–2001 2008–2009 2010–2011 2016–2017 That composite = December will be rockin' here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 50 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This is WAYYYY longrange, but talking modoki La Nina next year. I looked up what years were considered a modoki La Nina, and they are: 1973–1974 1975–1976 1983–1984 1988–1989 1998–1999 2000–2001 2008–2009 2010–2011 2016–2017 That composite = December will be rockin' here Man, we just can't seem to catch a break. Looks like a scorching summer based on that set of analogs. For Detroit area, the preceding summers include the warmest on record (2016, 74.9F); the 5th warmest on record (2010, 74.4F), and the 9th warmest on record (1988, 74.2F). 3 of the top 9 hottest summers [out of 150 years] from a set of 9 years is pretty impressive. 1983 (38 of 150), 2008 & 1998 (42 of 150), 1973 (47 of 150), and 1975 (61 of 150), were all above the long-term median (although these may be fairly typical summers compared to modern normals). Only 2000 was a legitimately cool summer, albeit nothing to write home about [being 49th coolest of 150 years]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Man, we just can't seem to catch a break. Looks like a scorching summer based on that set of analogs. For Detroit area, the preceding summers include the warmest on record (2016, 74.9F); the 5th warmest on record (2010, 74.4F), and the 9th warmest on record (1988, 74.2F). 3 of the top 9 hottest summers [out of 150 years] from a set of 9 years is pretty impressive. 1983 (38 of 150), 2008 & 1998 (42 of 150), 1973 (47 of 150), and 1975 (61 of 150), were all above the long-term median (although these may be fairly typical summers compared to modern normals). Only 2000 was a legitimately cool summer, albeit nothing to write home about [being 49th coolest of 150 years]. By average maximum temperature, we have the warmest (1988, 86.2F), the 3rd warmest (2016, 85.2F), and two just outside the Top 20 - the 21st warmest (2010, 83.5F) and the 22nd warmest (1983, 83.2F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Droughts aside, I'd love some heat. Let's turn lake Michigan into a pool in June 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: By average maximum temperature, we have the warmest (1988, 86.2F), the 3rd warmest (2016, 85.2F), and two just outside the Top 20 - the 21st warmest (2010, 83.5F) and the 22nd warmest (1983, 83.2F). Even more ominous when limited to those years following a year with a peak ONI of +1.6C or higher. That would leave only 1973, 1983, 1988, 1998, 2010, and 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Man, we just can't seem to catch a break. Looks like a scorching summer based on that set of analogs. For Detroit area, the preceding summers include the warmest on record (2016, 74.9F); the 5th warmest on record (2010, 74.4F), and the 9th warmest on record (1988, 74.2F). 3 of the top 9 hottest summers [out of 150 years] from a set of 9 years is pretty impressive. 1983 (38 of 150), 2008 & 1998 (42 of 150), 1973 (47 of 150), and 1975 (61 of 150), were all above the long-term median (although these may be fairly typical summers compared to modern normals). Only 2000 was a legitimately cool summer, albeit nothing to write home about [being 49th coolest of 150 years]. I fully expect a hot summer this year in a nino to nina transition. As Ive said before, by far the season that has warmed most here has been summer (esp mins), so I doubt the absence of 90F-heat will grace us 2 years in a row. 90F+ days (avg is 13) in summers preceding Modoki Ninas 1973– 9 days 1975– 4 days 1983– 21 days 1988– 39 days (most on record) 1998– 10 days 2000– 1 day 2008– 7 days 2010– 17 days 2016– 23 days *** Nino to Nina transition years 1954- 17 days 1964- 26 days 1973- 9 days 1988- 39 days 1998- 10 days 2010- 17 days 2016- 23 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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