mississaugasnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Build Back Better Winters said: Above average doesn’t automatically mean warm, if it’s due to mild lows and not warmer than normal highs I definitely think it’s fair to not call it a ‘warm’ spring, Thats a tough one. I get what your saying but above average night lows in spring also helps gets the vegetation and green up started faster. 53F low 45F is better compared to 60F low 32F Im up at 5am in the spring so scrapping frost off my truck and freezing would mean it skews my perception as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Not anymore lolThe operational models are always lousy with MJO driven pattern changes.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Build Back Better Winters said: Above average doesn’t automatically mean warm, if it’s due to mild lows and not warmer than normal highs I definitely think it’s fair to not call it a ‘warm’ spring, wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks for clarifying. Using the term Morch was troll like and he knows it!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, rainsucks said: wrong Yep. Spring 2023 was about as average of a spring as you get around here!! Neither warmth or cool was dominate. Sadly my best spring storms were late March/early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Not sure yet how the storm system next week pans out but I say we name the thread title the President's Day Pounder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 23 minutes ago, rainsucks said: wrong Yea it was warmer than past Springs but still not as warm as I'd like. Hoping for more prolonged stretches in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Not sure yet how the storm system next week pans out but I say we name the thread title the President's Day Pounder. I forgot to ask the other day... Isn't president's day the 19th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Yea it was warmer than past Springs but still not as warm as I'd like. Hoping for more prolonged stretches in the 60s. Not trying to be a dick but you need to keep your expectations in check considering you live in Michigan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Not trying to be a dick but you need to keep your expectations in check considering you live in Michigan. Im trying to be a dick when I say Ive lived here most of my life and we've had plenty of warm springs, Mr. born in 1998. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 23 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I forgot to ask the other day... Isn't president's day the 19th? Yea I saw him reference it the other day and thought to myself I don't think anyone was talking about the models that far out. Perhaps he's just excited for trumps return soon and wants to name a storm after him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 45 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I forgot to ask the other day... Isn't president's day the 19th? Ha I thought it was 12th. 12th is Lincoln's birthday, oops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 zzzzzzz 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Unless you enjoy frustrating yourself, just stick with ensemble models right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzzzz As long as it's near/above average temp-wise (which it is), I'll take zzzzzzz this time of year over cold & zzzzzzz. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Thursday’s precipitation event has mostly vanished imby. Full run GFS showing 0.10” of total precip. Still sitting at 0.13” of total precip in 2024. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Thursday’s precipitation event has mostly vanished imby. Full run GFS showing 0.10” of total precip. Still sitting at 0.13” of total precip in 2024. Yeah it is becoming less and less of an event worth watching that is for sure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The GFS operational model is so miserable bad compared to the ensemble. Run after run it’s lost.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 On 2/5/2024 at 6:24 PM, Stevo6899 said: Im trying to be a dick when I say Ive lived here most of my life and we've had plenty of warm springs, Mr. born in 1998. You should work on keeping your temper under control, as I’ve done nothing to elicit such an emotional/defensive response out of you (my birth year has no relevance either). Anyway, the last few springs have finished on the warm side of average, featuring plenty of mild/warm days, so I’m not sure what the problem is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Bout to thread some major needle up in this bih 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 op GFS is a nightmare 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The only way this winter could be worse is if the i95 cities see a big dog. Miller b looks likely. Not too late to get a more dominant nw trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The early next week system gives some vibes of a potential northwest trender and a stronger system farther west. Just as a point of reference, the loading pattern looks somewhat reminiscent of GHD II, with a prominent ridge spike out west and positive height anomalies (good height rises) to the east. There's been a decided trend the last few cycles of the GEFS of a stronger primary with better clustering near and west of the ensemble SLP mean. Taking the 12z operational GFS, you'd want to slow down the main southern stream wave, which could allow for phasing with the northern stream short-wave to occur farther west. [Edit: This isn't strictly a Chicagoland centric perspective. As things stand now with the 12z cycle there's enough support for a moderate event in portions of the subforum that have had very little snow this winter.] 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 hours ago, rainsucks said: You should work on keeping your temper under control, as I’ve done nothing to elicit such an emotional/defensive response out of you (my birth year has no relevance either). Anyway, the last few springs have finished on the warm side of average, featuring plenty of mild/warm days, so I’m not sure what the problem is. Just joking all around. Im sorry my elicit, explicit response was too much for you. Springs lately have been crummy, cloudy, chilly and missing long warmth spells. All I said was I hope this spring is nicer and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day... But, for now... -I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same. -Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season. -The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period. -This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around. -Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above. -The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 SSWE is still a dirty word to me because I blame it for about 10 straight weeks of freezing my b***s off going to to my car at 2:50 AM for work; and then murdering the season between the April 27-28 Dixie event and the June 16-18 Pilger etc. outbreak in 2014; with BA temps constantly getting pumped into the Midwest all through May from the endless Hudson Bay vortex. I don't understand the nostalgia for that year on this forum. I've since learned it's more nuanced than that, but it still gives me PTSD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Just joking all around. Im sorry my elicit, explicit response was too much for you. Springs lately have been crummy, cloudy, chilly and missing long warmth spells. All I said was I hope this spring is nicer and warmer. What you just described is a normal Michigan spring so it’s no surprise that’s the way springs have been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 op GFS is a nightmare Probably nightmarishly wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Id look for some input from @OHweather @Chicago Storm or @RCNYILWX, but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Id look for some input from @OHweather @Chicago Storm or @RCNYILWX, but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow! here is the 1st one nice 1017 low moving thru IL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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