Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Warmest winter on record is gonna be locked up by mid month for mby. Might as well make it the least snowy as well and hit the futility daily double. 

That's crazy. Minneapolis' infamous 1877-78 may move to 2nd place. 

[Frog Town]

See you guys mid Fall 2024.  Been real but now I gotta focus on my taxes and other less interesting things.  

[roardog]

26 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

See you guys mid Fall 2024.  Been real but now I gotta focus on my taxes and other less interesting things.  

I don’t know. This weather might be even less interesting than taxes. 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Warmest winter on record is gonna be locked up by mid month for mby. Might as well make it the least snowy as well and hit the futility daily double. 

 

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Wake up > check 384hr GFS > less then 0.10” precip for Minneapolis 

wash rinse repeat 

[A-L-E-K]

u stop checking when it gets real bad

[Lightning]

Not gonna have much winter stuck here!!!

[Stebo]

Go away Cromartie

[RCNYILWX]

Most of the long range gurus, including our own [mention=525]OHweather[/mention], think that the 2nd half of February will turn colder in the eastern US and I haven't seen any suggestions of that not playing out. The end of the most recent EPS and GEFS show the progression to west coast ridging and eastern troughing with a -NAO returning.

Prior to that, it absolutely will be torchy as the western US gets hammered and the calls that winter is over will continue. The positive departures will be large prior to the likely colder pattern, so the odds certainly favor AN mean temps for the month.

Assuming things go to plan, the position of the expected western ridging will help determine how active or not the pattern will be, particularly with western extent where an east based +PNA is generally a drier look.

[roardog]

Since it's going to be mild, hopefully we can get the rare sunny and mild winter weather. Then maybe it could at least freeze at night to keep the ridiculous mud down a little. Maybe we can accomplish that for awhile with the dry easterly flow coming up. 

[CheeselandSkies]

You'd think with all these AA temps we could at least get a winter outbreak, but nope. Trough coming through Saturday on the GFS is negatively tilted to the point of absurdity, with southeasterly flow at 500mb, and despite low 50s dewpoints all the way up to southeastern Nebraska, 60s remain offshore the Gulf coast!

[Powerball]

Larry Cosgrove seems to think it's going to be Morch-y this year.

So yeah, while there's plenty of winter left to go calendar and climo-wise, with the current pattern the way it is and if Cosgrove's onto something, that window is getting shorter.

[Cary67]

4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Most of the long range gurus, including our own [mention=525]OHweather[/mention], think that the 2nd half of February will turn colder in the eastern US and I haven't seen any suggestions of that not playing out. The end of the most recent EPS and GEFS show the progression to west coast ridging and eastern troughing with a -NAO returning.

Prior to that, it absolutely will be torchy as the western US gets hammered and the calls that winter is over will continue. The positive departures will be large prior to the likely colder pattern, so the odds certainly favor AN mean temps for the month.

Assuming things go to plan, the position of the expected western ridging will help determine how active or not the pattern will be, particularly with western extent where an east based +PNA is generally a drier look.




 

If this happens the NWS may have to issue a CAD watch for Alek

[A-L-E-K]

[DocATL]

An annoyingly chilly spring awaits.

I’ve got to say that for all the talk of winters here, my move from the southeast has been pretty smooth. Aside for about 10 days in the deep freezer it’s been pretty tolerable in the Midwest.


.

[DocATL]

Most of the long range gurus, including our own [mention=525]OHweather[/mention], think that the 2nd half of February will turn colder in the eastern US and I haven't seen any suggestions of that not playing out. The end of the most recent EPS and GEFS show the progression to west coast ridging and eastern troughing with a -NAO returning.

Prior to that, it absolutely will be torchy as the western US gets hammered and the calls that winter is over will continue. The positive departures will be large prior to the likely colder pattern, so the odds certainly favor AN mean temps for the month.

Assuming things go to plan, the position of the expected western ridging will help determine how active or not the pattern will be, particularly with western extent where an east based +PNA is generally a drier look.

Not sure I’ve seen convincing evidence that the 2nd half of February will be colder. Seems like a gambler’s fallacy to me. The end of the EPS and GFS are a problem because it’s always the end of the run that holds promise.


.

[RCNYILWX]

Not sure I’ve seen convincing evidence that the 2nd half of February will be colder. Seems like a gambler’s fallacy to me. The end of the EPS and GFS are a problem because it’s always the end of the run that holds promise.


.

If knowledgeable LR forecasters like OHweather, or Eric Webb on Twitter, or John Homenuk, just to name a few, remain confident in the pattern progression, that plus seeing it in the ensembles is convincing enough for me to judge it as likely.

The current Pacific jet extension will retract, allowing for west coast ridging to develop, the MJO is forecast to move into more favorable phases, and the downwelling effects of the recent SSW are expected to translate to NAO and AO blocking.

Of course there's no such thing as a lock at this range, but again, haven't seen anything yet to suggest a pattern change isn't likely for the 2nd half of the month. Also, colder doesn't mean a February version of what we just had or snowy here in the western subforum either.

It's just a statement that the pattern *should* become favorable for the discharge of at least seasonably cold air masses that will be more conducive for snow chances, vs. the non-existent chances for snow through the first 1/3 to 1/2 of February.

[ILSNOW]

next chance at snow is on 372 hour 18z GFS

[TheNiño]

4 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

next chance at snow is on 372 hour 18z GFS

 

[Snowstorms]

Tonight's GFS is snowless for all of us until Feb 15 or all 384 hours. Nice. 

[rainsucks]

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Tonight's GFS is snowless for all of us until Feb 15 or all 384 hours. Nice. 

would also probably be the warmest first half of Feb on record by a decent margin for the Midwest if it were to verify.

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Tonight's GFS is snowless for all of us until Feb 15 or all 384 hours. Nice. 

March will be rockin'

[A-L-E-K]

another 2-week winter and spring from hell

getting old imo

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

another 2-week winter and spring from hell

getting old imo

The springs in N.IL and especially by the lake have always been short and sucky with some exceptions. For the most part it's mid to late April till mid to late May. I think the loss of December whether its an El Nino or La Nina isn't compensated enough by cold Marches. The winter windows of opportunity seem to be narrowing in length and frequency. It highlights the fewer winners vs all the losers even more so in areas solely relying on synoptic snowfall. LES areas still have the buffer of receiving snow when cold air makes its brief intrusions.

[rainsucks]

2021 was a nice spring overall, wouldn't mind a repeat of that.

[Cary67]

From LOT AFD:

pressed south by blocking over central NOAM, we`ll have an
exceptionally long period of benign weather with surface high
pressure predominating through mid next week. Winds will be
generally from the northeast, resulting in rare winter time
"cooler near the lake" conditions lakeside amidst otherwise well
above normal temperatures in the 40s (with upside potential
pending sky cover trends). Next chance of precipitation will
come beyond day 7. The tendency during this stretch will be to
wonder if "winter is over", though consistent long range
ensemble guidance has been pointing toward the return of a more
wintry pattern (western ridging and eastern troughing with high
latitude blocking establishing), at least temperature wise,
toward Valentine`s Day.

Castro

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

From LOT AFD:

pressed south by blocking over central NOAM, we`ll have an
exceptionally long period of benign weather with surface high
pressure predominating through mid next week. Winds will be
generally from the northeast, resulting in rare winter time
"cooler near the lake" conditions lakeside amidst otherwise well
above normal temperatures in the 40s (with upside potential
pending sky cover trends). Next chance of precipitation will
come beyond day 7. The tendency during this stretch will be to
wonder if "winter is over", though consistent long range
ensemble guidance has been pointing toward the return of a more
wintry pattern (western ridging and eastern troughing with high
latitude blocking establishing), at least temperature wise,
toward Valentine`s Day.

Castro

I know that you posted this in reference to the possible mid-February flip, but what caught my eye is that Alek's gonna be freezing at his crib. He might want consider staying at the office for a few days to soak in the warmth.

[cyclone77]

The omega block will be gone by this time next week.  At least that's a step in the right direction at being able to get something meaningful to track.  Would hope the pattern after that will allow for some storminess to return to the sub.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

The record number of 50 degree days in DJF for Minneapolis is 8. We are currently at 7 with the potential to add a few and set the record next week. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3 hours ago, transWXgirl said:

I have the feeling you’re gonna be smack dab in the middle of tornado alley this spring and summer.

All I care about this spring/summer is getting somewhat normal precipitation, tornado chances are just a bonus. 3 years of flash drought is enough, and this winter is making wildfire season look quite brutal in northern Minnesota unless the pattern turns wet.