RCNYILWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Looks like zero precip for the next 12+ days. Was a fun stretch but looks very boring going forward. Yup, go out west if you want something interesting. California is going to get hammered by multiple ARs it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Disclaimer: Tenor of the post is as a fellow weenie, separate from you and your colleagues being valued NWS employees... The issue, as always, is that our expectations are so low. When people resign themselves to the fact that 10 days of winter (regardless of ENSO state or various indices) is acceptable, where does that leave us? Even if the 10-day stretch is really good (in this case I'd give it a B or B+ since our friends in the city missed out and it had the potential to be even better), would we ever be ok with 10 days of summer? In summer, people don't care about the indices - it's just summer. Sure, some patterns can be 70s and humid and others can be 90s and dry, but it still feels like summer either way simply because of the calendar. Can't chalk it all up to a strong El Nino. Last year didn't feature that, but the winter was still horrible. It's maddening to have to depend on the perfect alphabet soup of indices to get winter. Shouldn't the calendar be enough? Our problem is temps, not precip/snow. A day with a high of 15F in January shouldn't be a big deal. Sure, it's a bit cold...but nothing crazy. The problem is that it needs to be offset by another day with a high of 45F, since our average high in Jan is 30F. The good patterns can be really good, but it's short-lived and everything else is bad. Would have been nice to follow up the 10-day good pattern with regular winter, like highs 25-30F and lows in the teens with a bit of snowfall. Nothing crazy, just some basic winter-type stuff. But it's always way up and way down. We never get "normal" winter weather here. It's either a good pattern which you hope produces in a short window...or nothing. And it's even worse because all of those comments are referencing Jan, the core of winter. Dec/Feb are even worse, as average monthly highs are higher, around 35F. The problem with low expectations is that it makes people think they should be ok with 10 days of winter, when DJF is 91 days long. If that's the case, what's the point of being excited about winter? So maybe we get to celebrate 20-30 days in winter (instead of 10) with other ENSO states? Ok...I guess that's a small improvement. Would be nice to look out the window in DJF and not have to worry about melting. I don't look out the window between mid-June and mid-Sept and worry about it being cold outside. You may have an occasional cool morning...but 98 times out of 100 it will feel like summer in summer. No one is asking for subzero temps and feet of snow continuously; just a nice 6-8 week stretch of temps mainly in the 10s-20s (even a few afternoons in the 30s, as long as the nights are cold) with at least some accumulating snow in the less productive weeks. I guess we pin our hopes on mid-Feb to mid-Mar, even though it will be tough to keep snow on the ground? If Dec would have been decent, the current stretch would be more tolerable...but winter was nowhere to be found in the month with the shortest daylight and the holidays. Regardless of how the rest of the winter turns out, it's impossible to recover from that. We finally get the lakes to freeze around here, then it all goes to ****. Nothing is stable or consistent. There should be a 4-6 week period where the lakes are frozen, regardless of indices. Maybe it's even more than 4-6 weeks in the better winters (imagine that!), but the big issue is stability and the feeling of winter. We just don't have it here - it can't be counted on. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Also Beavis Yellowknife is calling, because honestly you have unreasonable expectations for Chicago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like zero precip for the next 12+ days. Was a fun stretch but looks very boring going forward. were going to need the break for what comes next. Btw...where does your snow total stand for the season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 i've been waiting for a quality beavis meltdown this winter. took a week of fog, rain, and rapid snow melt in the wake of our usual two weeks of winter to make it happen, but here we are. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 19 minutes ago, Baum said: were going to need the break for what comes next. Btw...where does your snow total stand for the season? 26.7" here. Both MLI and DVN are over 30" as well. Definitely very happy considering everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Wildfire season will be rocking with full run GFS precip maps like this for MN and points NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Also Beavis Yellowknife is calling, because honestly you have unreasonable expectations for Chicago.Thank you! Chicago has about 20 90° days a year, how many places in the world can get both 95° temps in July and a yard of snow in the winter? Be thankful you get seasons at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That HUGE ridge that try's to torch the middle of the country first week of FEB get's crushed by what looks like a west based -NAO forming. Kind of weird set up but seems to suppress everything south but no much cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 We knew there would be a decent break in the pattern, including a thaw. However, there is absolutely nothing in sight for the north-central US through the next ten days, maybe even mid February. At least we get mild air over the near term. After that it looks like we turn colder but remain dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 51 minutes ago, transWXgirl said: Looks like Bigfoot just gave the can a hard kick. And yet.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Terrible spring incoming 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 the only major signals I see for Feb are drier than average first half, starting warmer but potential for some cool weather mid month. I would expect east coast troughing to maintain for the last half of February into the first week or so of March. Hard to say anything beyond that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 "TransWXgirl" lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12 minutes ago, IWXwx said: "TransWXgirl" lol I'm confused. Is that palm dewd? if it is, gotta admire him entertaining us during this zzzz winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 23 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I'm confused. Is that palm dewd? if it is, gotta admire him entertaining us during this zzzz winter. "Admire" is not a word I'd use to describe cromartie. This January has been full of both fun times and frustration, but it's been anything but zzzz here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Aside from a 10 day period of BN temps these firmly AN stretches just dominate. Not sure where things go after mid February but until then things are uneventful and mild.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 43 minutes ago, DocATL said: Aside from a 10 day period of BN temps these firmly AN stretches just dominate. Not sure where things go after mid February but until then things are uneventful and mild. . I suspect Mar-May will be cool and rainy with persistent east winds in southeast Wisconsin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 After a very busy few weeks (personally and professionally), I myself enjoyed knowing all week this week that there wasn't a legitimate snow chance for me to look at for the foreseeable future. I love snow but I needed to catch up . A warm-up after the recent cold snap always seemed likely. The warm-up probably came a few days later than I initially thought and is definitely lasting 1-2 weeks longer than I may have hoped. However, I still think we'll get another decent window of colder weather, likely starting around the middle of February. I do think this upcoming window may favor the eastern U.S. for snow more than parts of the Midwest. Tropical forcing has been relatively active and important this season, despite the strong El Nino. Note how passages through the western hemisphere in early-mid November and mid-late December were followed by pattern changes a couple of weeks later. The most recent wave has been especially amplified and slow-moving across the eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This almost certainly contributed to the ongoing milder pattern not just being a quick deal. My guess would be that the combination of the collapsed +Indian Ocean Dipole event (that peaked in the fall), weakening El Nino, and ongoing stratospheric warming event earlier this month all contributed to such amplified tropical forcing in these areas. The pattern over the last week and over the next several days definitely has some resemblance to the MJO 5-6-7 composites for mid-late January. The question is, do we get continued propagation through phases 7-8-1? The dynamical models are a mess, the statistical models say yes: The dynamic models (EPS and CFS the last two images) suggest a very odd/confused signal over the next 10 or so days, followed by what could be a more coherent eastward propagation towards mid-February. The statistical models have a more consistent eastward propagation over the next two weeks. Looking at the actual velocity potential anomaly forecasts from the CFS and EPS: They suggest continued propagation through the first week of February, with forcing persisting thereafter over the western hemisphere. I would consider tropical forcing to generally be supportive of a transition back to a colder pattern, as it seems like one way or another, most guidance suggests we should see it become more focused over the western hemisphere in February. That supports a +PNA/-NAO. However, I would also consider tropical forcing to be a source of uncertainty as the models seem to be trying to sort out a complex evolution over the next couple of weeks. If we can get the phase 8-1 response the mild weather would not last forever: I would say the recent and ongoing positive East Asian Mountain Torque isn't necessarily the cause of the ongoing +EPO (I believe the tropical forcing is the cause), but the increased storminess the extended Pacific jet has caused is flooding Pacific air into the northern US and Canada. As the east Asian Mountain torque turns negative over the next week the PNA will briefly trend more negative. However, by mid-February the East Asian Mountain Torque is shown to trend more positive, so any -PNA trend won't last long. With more favorable tropical forcing that should increase blocking along the west coast and into Alaska: To me, it seems like there's a decent shot that by mid-February we see a more positive PNA and eventually more negative NAO due to the evolution of the mountain torque and tropical forcing. At the same time, our recent SSW event would be due to down well into the troposphere during the second half of February. So if we will see a prolonged period of tropospheric blocking it would begin during the second half of February. In short, more cold weather should be coming mid to late February. The pattern may end up being more favorable for the East Coast than Midwest overall, but there should be a period of relatively increased snow potential after the ongoing slow stretch. 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Winters where Januaries are cloudier than Decembers usually mean a mild/snowless February like last year, 2020, 2017, or 1998. If only that would help trump the trends: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 BAMWX now having doubts about the middle of next month and beyond: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Fantastic analysis as always @OHweather. I never DONT want snow in winter, but since reality has been for a while that the first half of Feb will mostly suck, Im actually not mad about getting some zzz's. After tomorrows burst of snow it looks to dry out for a while after what will be our wettest January on record (snowfall above avg too, but not top 20 territory). By about Feb 10th, I hope to be feasting on some model eye candy and would love to do a repeat of what we saw from Jan 11-24 or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: Warmest winter on record is gonna be locked up by mid month for mby. Might as well make it the least snowy as well and hit the futility daily double. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Warmest winter on record is gonna be locked up by mid month for mby. Might as well make it the least snowy as well and hit the futility daily double. Minneapolis working towards a record for lowest snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1752060570583322704?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 38 minutes ago, DocATL said: Minneapolis working towards a record for lowest snowfall. . We’ve got a long way to go. It can snow here into May, and April 2018 saw over 25” of snow, but the trends this winter are undeniable. I’m more concerned if we don’t see any precip versus it falling as snow. Don’t want a 4th straight summer of drought and smoke. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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