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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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3 minutes ago, King James said:

Lol relax, this is a weather forum sir. 

Yes it is, and we want to talk weather without an interrupting jerk who doesn't give a shit about anything other than interrupting this place. He has made 11 accounts already since being banned, he is the problem not those of us wanting him gone.

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17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yes it is, and we want to talk weather without an interrupting jerk who doesn't give a shit about anything other than interrupting this place. He has made 11 accounts already since being banned, he is the problem not those of us wanting him gone.

Lol so angry

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1 minute ago, King James said:

You’re the one keeping the palm guy discussion alive and a good deal of us find it entertaining lol

I am not the only one who wants him gone, far from it actually, and he keeps showing back up nearly every day with a new account and others engage mocking him. This is a tedious back and forth here though, so I'll just move along on this time waste.

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6 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Extended looks very dry in Minnesota. Top 10 driest January is closing in on a lock. Typical of a nino around here. 

Yeah that area and places to your north and west are really in trouble with how dry it has been.

Alberta has really been suffering through a prolonged drought.

 

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2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Extended looks very dry in Minnesota. Top 10 driest January is closing in on a lock. Typical of a nino around here. 

It's funny how things even out. After a parade of snowstorms and a top 5 snowy winter last year, South Central Minnesota is in a snow hole this year.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's funny how things even out. After a parade of snowstorms and a top 5 snowy winter last year, South Central Minnesota is in a snow hole this year.

Yeah nothing you can do but marvel at how drastically things can change YOY in our region. I’ve still had (scant) snowcover imby longer then most in this subforum, haven’t been above freezing since January 5th. It’s still winter here. 

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Curious to see how well our snowpack can hold up. To my understanding it looks like past Wednesday, there isn't much in the way of rain coming this way and we look to dodge a serious torch. I can't really recall how quickly 30-40F thaws things out. 

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Yeah nothing you can do but marvel at how drastically things can change YOY in our region. I’ve still had (scant) snowcover imby longer then most in this subforum, haven’t been above freezing since January 5th. It’s still winter here. 

That's good. At least there's plenty of ice on the many lakes around you to enjoy!

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2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Curious to see how well our snowpack can hold up. To my understanding it looks like past Wednesday, there isn't much in the way of rain coming this way and we look to dodge a serious torch. I can't really recall how quickly 30-40F thaws things out. 

Primary factors for time to melt / rate of melt are a combo of sustained winds, humidity, sky cover, hours above freezing and to what degree with secondary factors including frost depth and sun angle. 

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2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Curious to see how well our snowpack can hold up. To my understanding it looks like past Wednesday, there isn't much in the way of rain coming this way and we look to dodge a serious torch. I can't really recall how quickly 30-40F thaws things out. 

It will melt pretty quickly once dews creep above freezing

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Yes it is, and we want to talk weather without an interrupting jerk who doesn't give a shit about anything other than interrupting this place. He has made 11 accounts already since being banned, he is the problem not those of us wanting him gone.

Seems like a psychological problem. Rather than mocking him let’s get him some help.


.
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5 minutes ago, DocATL said:


How are your emoji267.png emoji267.png doing, chief?


.

He is banned for the 9th time

3 minutes ago, DocATL said:


Seems like a psychological problem. Rather than mocking him let’s get him some help.


.

He needs help, that is for sure.

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Primary factors for time to melt / rate of melt are a combo of sustained winds, humidity, sky cover, hours above freezing and to what degree with secondary factors including frost depth and sun angle. 
Throw in the SWE and the temperature of the snowpack going into a thaw. At mid day today, our snowpack had unusually high SWE (1.6" on 6-7" SD at LOT) and in general the temperature across the heart of it was quite cold due to extended cold stretch. Those factors initially make it more resilient, with a warmer snowpack going in more prone to "ripening" faster.

There's going to be steady melt but it appears that temps and dew points up in the metro and points west should stay low enough to prevent a nuking of the snowpack over the next several days. That is unless dew points trend higher absent insolation, as it does appear we should stay cloudy through the period.


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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Throw in the SWE and the temperature of the snowpack going into a thaw. At mid day today, our snowpack had unusually high SWE (1.6" on 6-7" SD at LOT) and in general the temperature across the heart of it was quite cold due to extended cold stretch. Those factors initially make it more resilient, with a warmer snowpack going in more prone to "ripening" faster.

There's going to be steady melt but it appears that temps and dew points up in the metro and points west should stay low enough to prevent a nuking of the snowpack over the next several days. That is unless dew points trend higher absent insolation, as it does appear we should stay cloudy through the period.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I was just outside walking the dog, and quite a bit of my snow has gone from the powder you would expect from the recent cold to packable and able to throw snowballs for the dog.

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