Malacka11 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i’ll throw up a zzzzz to that. . Good one lol. Sarcasm aside I really do think this thread should be met-led. Don't want to sound like I'm jumping the gun but we only get so many of these chances and I think we should make it a point to let someone who actually knows what's up decide when the time is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Waiting for stebo to greenlight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Presented without comment for the committee. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Muskegon Mauler said: -PNA makes this ripe for a NW trend. 45 minutes ago, deathridge said: Ready to be buried in more white stuff than Hunter Biden. Two new accounts today that post identical to Palm. Who could it ever be? 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Two new accounts today that post identical to Palm. Who could it ever be? Wow. The desperation in this individual is so sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Two new accounts today that post identical to Palm. Who could it ever be? What you mean rating a snowfall map weenie within an hour on your first day being here isn't normal behavior? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, Muskegon Mauler said: If you read the forums and get to know a poster’s style their sock accounts are obv. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Muskegon Mauler said: -PNA makes this ripe for a NW trend. Alek already sniffing rain 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Waiting for stebo to greenlight I think we wait until tomorrow for the first system for this weekend, and then probably mid to late week for the big system 5 days or less is a good window for a thread start. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: 1 hour ago, Muskegon Mauler said: If you read the forums and get to know a poster’s style their sock accounts are obv. Something needs to be done about this, IP ban him or something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Presented without comment for the committee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0Z GFS continues to look juicy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Don't care if it's a miss locally but if this storm goes poof you will see me on the news 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The signal for a powerful storm is something else at this lead time. We received word that there will be Pacific recon flights this winter to help with upper air data for the models. Hopefully that helps make for a better forecast farther out. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Something to consider for the Ohio Valley. As you very well know, lots of models changes will happen in the next 6 days, so don't be surprised if these "big snow" ensembles don't work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 if only 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 First storm stays SE and east coast gets a pretty solid snowstorm. Moves out quick which allows heights to rise in the middle of the country for the next system to go NW. The euro intensifies the second system but it moves ENE instead of shooting nw of chicago, which you usually see with a strenghtneing low below 980 in missouri. Perhaps blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All I can contribute at this point is we are all in for an emotional roller coaster for the next eight days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You can tell the pattern is ready to flip in a thunderous way. Mid January should be rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ensemble means continue to indicate the potential for a higher end event late this weekend into early next week. Pretty expansive area of significant snowfall on the means, and a solid chunk of the members really bomb the surface low out into the 970s. Would suggest fairly widespread blizzard conditions are possible. Looks to be a potential coast to coast storm as well and should certainly help the snowpack out west. I do like how the cold air is there but not overwhelming, which would suggest less potential for the surface low to get suppressed by excess high pressure in its developmental stages. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 One thing is for certain, it won’t be zzzzs for the next two weeks. Tons to track! Can’t wait to see the first meltdown. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Low occludes too early on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, andyhb said: Low occludes too early on the 18z GFS. As in that's something to look out for or a solution you consider to be unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: As in that's something to look out for or a solution you consider to be unlikely? It is possible, albeit I’d put the probability of such an outcome on the lower side given an occlusion that far south is a relative rarity. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, andyhb said: Low occludes too early on the 18z GFS. Will be interesting to see the differences in the 18z deterministic vs ensemble mean. 12z GFS looked like it was one of the furthest outliers from its ensemble mean both in terms of low placement and strength. The Euro was within a higher confidence of its ensemble mean, and both the GEFS and EPS means were close in placement and strength.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 There is some snow in various areas in the Ohio Valley on the ensembles for the FIRST storm. A lot of the ensemble members have this snow accumulation at about hour 120, that is 00z January 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 the general agreement at 500 for a deep slp with a classic track looks great but I fear a lack of cold air and progressive nature are gonna keep this from being too interesting, ymmv and would love to be wrong looks like actual cold available for whatever comes next which will be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 the general agreement at 500 for a deep slp with a classic track looks great but I fear a lack of cold air and progressive nature are gonna keep this from being too interesting, ymmv and would love to be wrong looks like actual cold available for whatever comes next which will be niceA paste bomb with wind could be very high impact if the SLP comes in anywhere close to as deep as recent Euro and GFS op runs and many ensemble members. The system doesn't look all that progressive to me as modeled relative to other past higher end synoptic systems. Your point about lack of cold air is certainly valid though. With the south buoy still 43 degrees, and unlikely to cool off more than a couple degrees over the next week, could make for white rain on the lakeshore and a few to several miles inland until winds turn offshore. Think the November 25-26, 2018 snowstorm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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