Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[cyclone77]

Nothing is more festive than worms on Christmas.  Here's a snippet from DVN's AFD today.

Looking at Christmas, there seems a higher risk of smelling
worms outside than shoveling snow around here this year with
moist air and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and lows
above freezing.

[rainsucks]

35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nothing is more festive than worms on Christmas.  Here's a snippet from DVN's AFD today.

Looking at Christmas, there seems a higher risk of smelling
worms outside than shoveling snow around here this year with
moist air and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and lows
above freezing.

Would be surprised if temps only maxed out in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Christmas Day across the Quad Cities based on latest model trends, but we’ll see.

[DocATL]

SW is most definitely going to occur, and the MJO is most definitely going to exit the COD somewhere into the 8-2 phase range (But yes, at low amplitude).

Yeah SSWE is predicted but where does the cold go? Thats the question.


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[rainsucks]

Still rather skeptical of an actual major SSW event occurring. I know the GFS and its ensembles have been hinting at one, but it hasn't really been that consistent.

[cyclone77]

Other than rain looks like a snooze fest into early January.

[hardypalmguy]

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Nothing is more festive than worms on Christmas.  Here's a snippet from DVN's AFD today.

Looking at Christmas, there seems a higher risk of smelling
worms outside than shoveling snow around here this year with
moist air and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and lows
above freezing.

perfect

[OrdIowPitMsp]

12/24 record high in Minneapolis is 46, current forecast is 49 and lots of rain. 

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzz

[Cary67]

Could make a run at <25" seasonal snowfall for a third year in a row.

[mississaugasnow]

44 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

perfect

are your palms still unprotected? I put mine in the garage but might bring them out for Christmas Eve and Christmas haha 

[hardypalmguy]

50 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

are your palms still unprotected? I put mine in the garage but might bring them out for Christmas Eve and Christmas haha 

I have about 60 unprotected windmill palms outside that I'm testing for hardiness. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

16 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

I have about 60 unprotected windmill palms outside that I'm testing for hardiness. 

Selective breeding? Send me one, I’ll plant it in my in-laws backyard, they are about a mile north of the 45th parallel. 

[hardypalmguy]

Selective breeding? Send me one, I’ll plant it in my in-laws backyard, they are about a mile north of the 45th parallel. 

They are in 4 inch pots and I will only be bringing into greenhouse on nights below 5-10 or 96 consecutive hours below freezing. And I’m gonna see if any make it.

But yes selective breeding to weed out the weak and see if there’s any strength in numbers.

[Chicago Storm]

Yeah SSWE is predicted but where does the cold go? Thats the question.


.

Given the location of the SW, the main/core of the cold will be on the other side of the NH.


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[DocATL]

Given the location of the SW, the main/core of the cold will be on the other side of the NH.


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That was always the fear. Going to be threading the needle.


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[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Given the location of the SW, the main/core of the cold will be on the other side of the NH.


.

tick tock goes the clock

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

That was always the fear. Going to be threading the needle.


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Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now. 

[hardypalmguy]

47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now. 

Get temps much above normal and it's a rainer. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing backside accumulating snow occulating into my area behind the Christmas rains. Long way off but interesting to see both models showing that feature.

[hardypalmguy]

Tick tock, tick tock. Palms are more likely to survive than snowbanks this year.

[Frog Town]

11 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Tick tock, tick tock. Palms are more likely to survive than snowbanks this year.

Dude! I'm sure you're a good guy but this is how I picture you......Annoying the piss out of everyone. 

[hardypalmguy]

Dude! I'm sure you're a good guy but this is how I picture you......Annoying the piss out of everyone. 

Nah I’m just not in denial that we are transitioning to winters more typical of England.

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Dude! I'm sure you're a good guy but this is how I picture you......Annoying the piss out of everyone. 

For sure. Never adding any actual substance or weather discussion, just trolling away & spouting nonsense since he lives in a 4 seasons humid continental climate rather than the tropical one he never will. 

[hardypalmguy]

For sure. Never adding any actual substance or weather discussion, just trolling away & spouting nonsense since he lives in a 4 seasons humid continental climate rather than the tropical one he never will. 

How’s the snow and cold coming this year? Asking for a friend.

[DocATL]

Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now. 

Haven’t been here too long. Certainly seems like pattern persistence is the name of the game thus far.


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[cyclone77]

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Nah I’m just not in denial that we are transitioning to winters more typical of England.

We get it buddy.

[Baum]

6 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

How’s the snow and cold coming this year? Asking for a friend.

I don't want to get into a climate debate here, but their are some that believe a warming climate may actually lead to more palm crushing snows. Ironically, your Milwaukee winter last year someone speaks to this as you had nearly 30 inches of snow most of it of the heavy wet variety from January 26 on including a frond crusher in mid-late march.I also note in your posts you rarely reference what is  going on elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/04/europe-snow-cold-munich-moscow-record/

An article from the WP. Some might call this "shot with his own gun"

And to keep this thread relevant. I do believe there are some changes a foot that could lead to a colder/snowier period and put "jack" back in his box for a bit.

[Lightning]

7 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

How’s the snow and cold coming this year? Asking for a friend.

El Nino so mild Dec expected.  I just got 4.5" of snow with 3" still on the ground.  Expected to melt over the next couple days.  Sitting a bit above 10" so far this winter which is a little below average.  Mild Christmas expected which is not a surprise with El Nino.  So winter is doing what I expected plus proceeding as forecasted by many long range forecasters several months ago.  

[rainsucks]

39 minutes ago, Lightning said:

El Nino so mild Dec expected.  I just got 4.5" of snow with 3" still on the ground.  Expected to melt over the next couple days.  Sitting a bit above 10" so far this winter which is a little below average.  Mild Christmas expected which is not a surprise with El Nino.  So winter is doing what I expected plus proceeding as forecasted by many long range forecasters several months ago.  

I don't think anyone had forecasted this month finishing with near +15 departures for any region, yet that appears likely to be the case for the far northern tier of the CONUS. Also, Christmas this year looks to feature temps running 20 degrees or more above average for a large section of the country that happens to include much of this subforum, so "mild" is a bit of an understatement.

[hardypalmguy]

23 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

I don't think anyone had forecasted this month finishing with near +15 departures for any region, yet that appears likely to be the case for the far northern tier of the CONUS. Also, Christmas this year looks to feature temps running 20 degrees or more above average for a large section of the country that happens to include much of this subforum, so "mild" is a bit of an understatement.

Yep this is a full blown torch that no one saw coming to this extend.  Remember Brian said it would be cold later this month.  Only the beginning would be mild.