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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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10 hours ago, katabatic said:

I'm not sure a lot of folks should be throwing stones inside their own glass houses. Take a look at the snowfall forecasts from the beginning of winter in our little contest. A lot of people thought (hoped) this would be the yin to make up for 7 years of yang, but barring a late season fluke, it certainly looks like another bust. So we are all in the same swirling eddy of despair - doesn't matter if someone is a "quality poster" or has a colorful tag. The posters who, as you say, are leading the good fight are highlighting models that look good on paper but ground truth is anything but. Folks, the old rules NO LONGER APPLY, rendering these goddamn weeklies that we've been seeing day after day after day after day after day after day completely useless. That is the source of so much angst. We are just too goddamn warm and it is frankly scary how warm it has been for so long. I noticed that it is above freezing on the southern shores of Hudson Bay today. February 10th. Even in our toasty world that's obviously ridiculous but it is happening. Even out here in the Boonies, I had a good start but recently had days of +30 anomalies and its been 3 weeks since the last decent snowfall during prime climo. Looks to change at least IMBY next week - well, kinda - but I think the writing is on the wall (toilet bowl?) for another disappointing season. Soon, the reality will set in that swimming upstream ain't worth the effort. Model chasing is now the posterchild for an exhausting, diminishing return. 

Its been nuts the last couple weeks out in western MD.. I've gotten a lot of outdoor work done, don't even need a coat! 

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2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Its been nuts the last couple weeks out in western MD.. I've gotten a lot of outdoor work done, don't even need a coat! 

I'm out at deep creek right now meeting with builders.  Drove by Wisp earlier today and lmao that's one pathetically sad looking ski resort right now.  No snow around anywhere else other than the fake stuff on the immediate runs.  I felt sorry for the skiers, like something out of Jamaican Bobsled.  But yeah, no coat needed for this trip.  

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30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Tend to agree. We're down to 1 week of winter at best anymore.

I feel like that is a huge win. The past several years had 0 winter, outside of a couple below average days. That week in Jan was a fluke. The 2016 storm was a fluke during an otherwise warm winter as well. It's become pretty easy to have a year round growing season with a simply build greenhouse. 

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2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I feel like that is a huge win. The past several years had 0 winter, outside of a couple below average days. That week in Jan was a fluke. The 2016 storm was a fluke during an otherwise warm winter as well. It's become pretty easy to have a year round growing season with a simply build greenhouse. 

Stockholm Syndrome. We're so f*cked.

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10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If winter ends now it's an F- in my book.

About 40% for my average seasonal snow fall. And worse than that in an nino.

basically 1 week of winter lol.

I have 25% normal.

But, in all honesty, that probably is above our new normal.  Considering that is about what this place received the past 3 winters combined.

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Here's a little food for thought on how quickly this has transformed into a debacle of a winter. Our quick relax turned into a short reload which in turn became a long 4 week shift into a shut out warm pattern. Then to put more into perspective, once the pattern flipped to bad on roughly Jan. 22nd, our next chance for frozen is next weekend and that gives a 4-5  week stretch during peak climo where most of us won't have seen one flake in a Nino no less. Think about that for a minute! Not one flake from Jan 21st to Feb 20th and that's assuming we see something next weekend.

I still think everyone sees measurable snow at least 2 more times but unless there's a MECS this will go down as another awful winter. I could even make an argument for how our 1 good week of winter was really underachieving but I digress. Not to mention the Jan. 6th storm that looked like a lock for several inches in my area and ended up less than an inch. Since Nov. 1st 2022 my location has received less than 15 total inches. 

I'll take snow anytime no matter how big or small of an event. I don't need a big dog to be happy but this current stretch were in since the 3rd week of January is simply awful. 

According to the teleconnections from now until Feb. 23rd we will have a very negative EPO along with a negative AO and NAO and we can't even get a sub freezing day for a high. I suppose there's still some confusion and models will figure things out and maybe have a clearer picture to a victory and quite possibly a much colder look in the 5-10. There are some encouraging looks for March but we know how that goes. 

Holding out hope for strong end game!

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On 2/9/2024 at 7:57 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

@Steve25

 

Its not looking too good for you. You have 6 days left. Doesn't look like the Monday-Tuesday event is going to get it done far ya, and the following weekend storm is iffy at best.

Hopefully you can pull a rabbit out of a hat soon eh?

 

As for me, I am chasing my snow early next week. I am thinking the poconos is a good spot.

Loading up that $20 for you. We have to give it until we officially make it through the 15th, but the writing is definitely all over the wall lol

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS, congrats New England, epic period for them...

IMG_3177.png

Lol. We suck. 

 

Seriously  though the temps on the gfs later on in runs  has been pretty crappy for a while now. 

Kind of feeling like we may be just about done with winter. 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Lol. We suck. 

 

Seriously  though the temps on the gfs later on in runs  has been pretty crappy for a while now. 

Kind of feeling like we may be just about done with winter. 

I’m waiting until the 18th to call it. If that event fails, and the models are still trending warm all the way into march, then I’m going to start wrapping this thing up and looking at potential winter destinations for next year

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3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m waiting until the 18th to call it. If that event fails, and the models are still trending warm all the way into march, then I’m going to start wrapping this thing up and looking at potential winter destinations for next year

Palisades Tahoe, Alta Utah and Mammoth Lakes are all definitely worth your due consideration.

They never let you down. The base state never applies. Many of those places sport snow year-round! Hadley Cells dont mean nothing there. It always snows, you get snowed in bad and you will ski your legs off.

You got the immensity of the Pacific, incredible orography and the Sierras! it just does what it wants there all the time, and that is, IT SNOWS AND SNOWS AND SNOWS! In feet!

Your heart will never break ever again. You wont have to wait 8 years for real snow. Take one gander at this webpage! This place is my DREAM!

https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/operations/how-we-report-snow/

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10 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I have 25% normal.

But, in all honesty, that probably is above our new normal.  Considering that is about what this place received the past 3 winters combined.

I can believe it. 2020s DC is basically a warmer, less snowy version of late 20th century Charlotte.

CLT (1961-1990) - December, January, February Temps & October - May Snowfall

image.png.9404ca8a2583c2bc6789e0fae723e924.png

image.png.05276d1aa9365b41d33a7abf4e58a409.png

image.thumb.png.90a6361a352591ab76672a7e3ed1dc93.png

image.png.19167ce0b3a32e00690f7c4e29df5076.png

 

 

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