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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

March is going to be special.  It's ripe.  The pattern looks amazing.  All we'll need is -25F departures, heavy rates, and nocturnal storms.

And if not, This amazing pattern has legs well into April. 

You know some of them will hold on to the bitter end. They'll be posting maps in mid-April when it's 85 degrees saying the pattern looks ripe in two weeks for a redux of April 28, 1898. :lol:

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18 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

@Steve25

 

Its not looking too good for you. You have 6 days left. Doesn't look like the Monday-Tuesday event is going to get it done far ya, and the following weekend storm is iffy at best.

Hopefully you can pull a rabbit out of a hat soon eh?

 

As for me, I am chasing my snow early next week. I am thinking the poconos is a good spot.

Not looking good for now, for sure. I'm always ready to admit when I'm wrong, and pay up. We will see for sure in 6 days

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No epic pattern after all. Damn I need another reaping. It is never gonna snow again.

Fuck fuck fuck fuck

We tracked and punted all frackin winter and now we end up worse than the ravens. I bet the damned chiefs stomp the niners 77 to 0. I hate the chiefs like ebola, which is probably why they will win the Vegas Superbowl making my journey to the dark side complete!

Everything is going to shyte. Rain is developing on the radar, I came home early, I put the cover on the damned car and whaddaya know I got stung real bad by a frackin RED WASP!!! My shoulder is hurting so bad I wish I could get reaped for REAL! Now, the damn rain is gonna slip NORTH and MISS Buda after all! What else is frackin' new? Every damned thing is going NORTH and the trend is definitely NOT our friend! Every damned last thing is totally going to shyte! Its like a huge airliner stuck in a massive nosedive in a shrieking aerodynamic SCREAM that can be heard for MILES! Or one of the WORST train wrecks and white hot dumpster fires ever imagined!

Might have to change my name to debman after all. I have no frackin choice but to become a deb. Nothing is ever gonna be right in the world. Not with the epic pattern turning to pac heaven. The alaska ridge going to shit, is what lost me. Epic pattern is falling apart fast. I am now a massive deb. Preparing my best deb opus manifesto as horrific overheated Spring gets ready to overwhelm the entire CONUS! Larry Cosgrove said as much.

FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK!!!!!!

:axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe::axe:

WE NEED 999 BILLION AXESMILEYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WORTHLESS WINTER, WITH BLOOD RUNNING IN THE STREETS! LETS PAINT ALL THE DAMNED TOWNS RED!

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I made my good faith effort. No more coddling the panic stricken here. Take it to the other thread. Y'all just getting weenies from me going forward lol.

Fine.  I can't wait for the posts over the next few weeks trying to explain how these awesome looking pictures somehow failed us

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

They're dropping like flies in the main thread. Many won't make it til mid March.

Lol.  If you went into other forums you would see others doing the same.  Allsnow.  40/70 Benchmark.  Bluewave.  Terpeast.

Even psuhoffman was getting frustrated 

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol.  If you went into other forums you would see others doing the same.  Allsnow.  40/70 Benchmark.  Bluewave

Maybe, but are we glazing over the next 2 weeks? Just 12 hrs ago we were tracking Feb 13, a wave on the 18, then the ideal setup for the psu baby on the 24th. The good looks advertised are upon us. I'm not getting caught up too much in what happens beyond that. Maybe we hold thru the 3rd week of Maarch or maybe this is another 10 day window, who knows. But we have trackable events showing up now. Hang in yoda, I appreciate your posts. 

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Its going to be funny watching the usual complaints once again soon... "oh if only there was a 50/50 then we could have had a snowstorm!"  "If only we had cold air!  Wherever could it be?"  "The blocking that was advertised seemed to have vanished again, how can this be?"  "The pattern at h5 looked AWESOMESAUCE1!!!111 How could it have failed us?11?

I'm tired of seeing all the great looks and shit over and over and over and over.  Time for the models to put up or shut up.  We saw the awesome looks at h5 last winter and what happened?  We were basically shut out of any snow.  We passed it off because oh it was a LA NINA winter lulz.  Fuck that shit.  Over and over again the PAC jet has won out no matter what the models are showing besides a few instances.  Prove me wrong ensembles.  But I am just about willing to bet money that DCA will see 2" or less of snow for the rest of the month.

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe, but are we glazing over the next 2 weeks? Just 12 hrs ago we were tracking Feb 13, a wave on the 18, then the ideal setup for the psu baby on the 24th. The good looks advertised are upon us. I'm not getting caught up too much in what happens beyond that. Maybe we hold thru the 3rd week of Maarch or maybe this is another 10 day window, who knows. But we have trackable events showing up now. Hang in yoda, I appreciate your posts. 

 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...it's not a long window...Tuesday, 2/20 and maybe one more shot at a biggie after that before things go to crap again, IMO............I don't buy all of the "PV will save March" crap. Maybe it prevents a complete torch, but I don't think it will be a good month.

Read the bluewave and allsnow interaction and posts on page 58 --

 

 

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Its going to be funny watching the usual complaints once again soon... "oh if only there was a 50/50 then we could have had a snowstorm!"  "If only we had cold air!  Wherever could it be?"  "The blocking that was advertised seemed to have vanished again, how can this be?"  "The pattern at h5 looked AWESOMESAUCE1!!!111 How could it have failed us?11?
I'm tired of seeing all the great looks and shit over and over and over and over.  Time for the models to put up or shut up.  We saw the awesome looks at h5 last winter and what happened?  We were basically shut out of any snow.  We passed it off because oh it was a LA NINA winter lulz.  Fuck that shit.  Over and over again the PAC jet has won out no matter what the models are showing besides a few instances.  Prove me wrong ensembles.  But I am just about willing to bet money that DCA will see 2" or less of snow for the rest of the month.

The long range looks could’ve been great and it all can fall apart and we’ll get shut out. Very valid.

In my little poll I posted I voted for 0-2”. Vibes have been off. Delays that aren’t delays. Not enough digital snow. We’ll see
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44 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its going to be funny watching the usual complaints once again soon... "oh if only there was a 50/50 then we could have had a snowstorm!"  "If only we had cold air!  Wherever could it be?"  "The blocking that was advertised seemed to have vanished again, how can this be?"  "The pattern at h5 looked AWESOMESAUCE1!!!111 How could it have failed us?11?

I'm tired of seeing all the great looks and shit over and over and over and over.  Time for the models to put up or shut up.  We saw the awesome looks at h5 last winter and what happened?  We were basically shut out of any snow.  We passed it off because oh it was a LA NINA winter lulz.  Fuck that shit.  Over and over again the PAC jet has won out no matter what the models are showing besides a few instances.  Prove me wrong ensembles.  But I am just about willing to bet money that DCA will see 2" or less of snow for the rest of the month.

This wasn’t the look the models had a few days ago for late February. Looks like we won’t make p8 until March which will be too late. 

IMG_3077.png

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What always gets my goat is that you need basically every model to agree it’ll snow for it to snow. Even down to 24 hours. But the second one model starts throwing warning signs about the long range it feels like it’s right.

I understand it’s just because our hit rate is low but it’s demoralizing. That’s why I always track whatever we’ve got and why January was so awesome. Cause we clawed them back from the dead. Broke tradition

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

To the folks leading the good fight… I salute you. If things pan out well, us quitters won’t deserve what we get.

If they don’t pan out… I legit worry we’re gonna lose like 5 good posters with how relentless the trolling may be. Good lord

I'm not sure a lot of folks should be throwing stones inside their own glass houses. Take a look at the snowfall forecasts from the beginning of winter in our little contest. A lot of people thought (hoped) this would be the yin to make up for 7 years of yang, but barring a late season fluke, it certainly looks like another bust. So we are all in the same swirling eddy of despair - doesn't matter if someone is a "quality poster" or has a colorful tag. The posters who, as you say, are leading the good fight are highlighting models that look good on paper but ground truth is anything but. Folks, the old rules NO LONGER APPLY, rendering these goddamn weeklies that we've been seeing day after day after day after day after day after day completely useless. That is the source of so much angst. We are just too goddamn warm and it is frankly scary how warm it has been for so long. I noticed that it is above freezing on the southern shores of Hudson Bay today. February 10th. Even in our toasty world that's obviously ridiculous but it is happening. Even out here in the Boonies, I had a good start but recently had days of +30 anomalies and its been 3 weeks since the last decent snowfall during prime climo. Looks to change at least IMBY next week - well, kinda - but I think the writing is on the wall (toilet bowl?) for another disappointing season. Soon, the reality will set in that swimming upstream ain't worth the effort. Model chasing is now the posterchild for an exhausting, diminishing return. 

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2 minutes ago, katabatic said:

I'm not sure a lot of folks should be throwing stones inside their own glass houses. Take a look at the snowfall forecasts from the beginning of winter in our little contest. A lot of people thought (hoped) this would be the yin to make up for 7 years of yang, but barring a late season fluke, it certainly looks like another bust. So we are all in the same swirling eddy of despair - doesn't matter if someone is a "quality poster" or has a colorful tag. The posters who, as you say, are leading the good fight are highlighting models that look good on paper but ground truth is anything but. Folks, the old rules NO LONGER APPLY, rendering these goddamn weeklies that we've been seeing day after day after day after day after day after day completely useless. That is the source of so much angst. We are just too goddamn warm and it is frankly scary how warm it has been for so long. I noticed that it is above freezing on the southern shores of Hudson Bay today. February 10th. Even in our toasty world that's obviously ridiculous but it is happening. Even out here in the Boonies, I had a good start but recently had days of +30 anomalies and its been 3 weeks since the last decent snowfall during prime climo. Looks to change at least IMBY next week - well, kinda - but I think the writing is on the wall (toilet bowl?) for another disappointing season. Soon, the reality will set in that swimming upstream ain't worth the effort. Model chasing is now the posterchild for an exhausting, diminishing return. 

This is why models made to the public should not go past 5 days. Lol. 

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27 minutes ago, snowfan said:

GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change.

Preview of future winters. We're in so much trouble in the long term. BWI was +17 on a daytime high yesterday and all you heard from folks was how great it was and "I hope it never snows again". 

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Preview of future winters. We're in so much trouble in the long term. BWI was +17 on a daytime high yesterday and all you heard from folks was how great it was and "I hope it never snows again". 

I’d rather there not be cc and I’m all about the seasons, but I do find it funny how we root for temperatures that require a couple layers of clothing. Snow is awesome, but 70 degrees is a lot more comfortable than 30 lol. I’m all for going green, but I’m actually more concerned with how dirty we’ve made this planet with all the plastic, etc. We’ve left a mark, that’s for sure.
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9 hours ago, katabatic said:

I'm not sure a lot of folks should be throwing stones inside their own glass houses. Take a look at the snowfall forecasts from the beginning of winter in our little contest. A lot of people thought (hoped) this would be the yin to make up for 7 years of yang, but barring a late season fluke, it certainly looks like another bust. So we are all in the same swirling eddy of despair - doesn't matter if someone is a "quality poster" or has a colorful tag. The posters who, as you say, are leading the good fight are highlighting models that look good on paper but ground truth is anything but. Folks, the old rules NO LONGER APPLY, rendering these goddamn weeklies that we've been seeing day after day after day after day after day after day completely useless. That is the source of so much angst. We are just too goddamn warm and it is frankly scary how warm it has been for so long. I noticed that it is above freezing on the southern shores of Hudson Bay today. February 10th. Even in our toasty world that's obviously ridiculous but it is happening. Even out here in the Boonies, I had a good start but recently had days of +30 anomalies and its been 3 weeks since the last decent snowfall during prime climo. Looks to change at least IMBY next week - well, kinda - but I think the writing is on the wall (toilet bowl?) for another disappointing season. Soon, the reality will set in that swimming upstream ain't worth the effort. Model chasing is now the posterchild for an exhausting, diminishing return. 

I mean-if the model chasing ain’t worth the effort, wouldn’t super long posts about the same be even less worth the effort?

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