EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: There is no can-kick. What's mid February? Er...the 15th? Lol If I were you I'd follow what the most knowledgeable poster like CAPE & PSU , Brooklynwx are saying...(and you KNOW PSU would say something if things weren't looking as great, lol). But all of them have been saying...PATIENCE. Most of the tastiest maps have been dated around PD weekend at the earliest. There's also been discussion about the 20-23rd. That is a long ways away...so any "can kick" as of now is more a result of impatient perception than reality. Have you tried taking a day off of this board? You deserve a weenie for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: There is no can-kick. What's mid February? Er...the 15th? Lol If I were you I'd follow what the most knowledgeable poster like CAPE & PSU , Brooklynwx are saying...(and you KNOW PSU would say something if things weren't looking as great, lol). But all of them have been saying...PATIENCE. Most of the tastiest maps have been dated around PD weekend at the earliest. There's also been discussion about the 20-23rd. That is a long ways away...so any "can kick" as of now is more a result of impatient perception than reality. Have you tried taking a day off of this board? Uh, go back and read the previous long range thread. It gets harder the farther you go back because people delete old images, but there was hype around the Feb 5/6 period, then there was hype around the Feb 14 period. Now its hype around the Feb 20 period. All I know is the warm up period has been longer than anticipated. Local ski resorts have had one or two short night time snowmaking opportunities in the last two weeks. Its supposedly middle of winter! Look at the 7 day forecast for Western MD! Depressing. Those lows are deceiving too, it takes forever to cool down and theres a short amount of time early in the AM where its actually cold enough to make snow before the sun comes. I don't need wall to wall winter but 3 weeks of spring in the middle of our best climo sucks. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: You deserve a weenie for that. Why? He said it seemed like a can-kick in the LR...and to me it isn't. Feels like a perception as folks are understandably antsy. I just never saw the 14th as a big window but after based on the discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why? He said it seemed like a can-kick in the LR...and to me it isn't. Feels like a perception as folks are understandably antsy. I just never saw the 14th as a big window but after based on the discussion. Exactly-No can kick. People who root for a bad football team do this same thing. Because their team stinks they only get joy by rooting against other teams. Just arrogance and negativity and little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 40 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Uh, go back and read the previous long range thread. It gets harder the farther you go back because people delete old images, but there was hype around the Feb 5/6 period, then there was hype around the Feb 14 period. Now its hype around the Feb 20 period. All I know is the warm up period has been longer than anticipated. Local ski resorts have had one or two short night time snowmaking opportunities in the last two weeks. It’s supposedly middle of winter! Look at the 7 day forecast for Western MD! Depressing. Those lows are deceiving too, it takes forever to cool down and theres a short amount of time early in the AM where it’s actually cold enough to make snow before the sun comes. I don't need wall to wall winter but 3 weeks of spring in the middle of our best climo sucks. This forecast only goes to 2/11. Pattern change isn’t supposed to happen until 2/15. I think impatience is the bigger issue and negativity not “can kicking”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why? He said it seemed like a can-kick in the LR...and to me it isn't. Feels like a perception as folks are understandably antsy. I just never saw the 14th as a big window but after based on the discussion. See above. It has most definitely been kicked. At one point we were talking about the 5th as being the start of trackable threats. A week later and we're still posting 384 hr maps. And besides, this is the panic room. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 37 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: This forecast only goes to 2/11. Pattern change isn’t supposed to happen until 2/15. I think impatience is the bigger issue and negativity not “can kicking”. My "negativity" is based in reality. The past two weeks have been above normal, and the upcoming week continues that stretch. I'm not rooting for warmth. I love snow. I love skiing. Can't do one without the other. Like I said, go back and re-read the previous LR thread. I'm not knocking on the posters. They provide great insight from the data available. That said, I think we need to step back and look at all of the data available and review what actually happened vs what guidance was showing. I'm hoping we turn around and get a good back loaded winter, otherwise I'll be driving farther to do my skiing! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, mdhokie said: My "negativity" is based in reality. The past two weeks have been above normal, and the upcoming week continues that stretch. I'm not rooting for warmth. I love snow. I love skiing. Can't do one without the other. Like I said, go back and re-read the previous LR thread. I'm not knocking on the posters. They provide great insight from the data available. That said, I think we need to step back and look at all of the data available and review what actually happened vs what guidance was showing. I'm hoping we turn around and get a good back loaded winter, otherwise I'll be driving farther to do my skiing! Lol-that’s cool and fair enough. Wasn’t talking about you in particular. But I had been disinterested for a month but hearing about the -Nao/ridge/blocking pattern upcoming gave me renewed interest. And only heard it would be in the 2/15 to 3/15 window. I really thought the next couple weeks were supposed to be tranquil. That’s why I don’t think it’s can kicking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Lol-that’s cool and fair enough. Wasn’t talking about you in particular. But I had been disinterested for a month but hearing about the -Nao/ridge/blocking pattern upcoming gave me renewed interest. And only heard it would be in the 2/15 to 3/15 window. I really thought the next couple weeks were supposed to be tranquil. That’s why I don’t think it’s can kicking. Same thing I heard. Not sure what the other two are talking about...at not time was early Feb hyped to be a great period. I mean maybe somebody mentioned that a threat in the LR *might* have a chance...but it was never "This is when the pattern flips". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I’ve been trolling a bit in the long range thread but I’m actually a believer. That said, I know I “joked” a couple days ago about Tomer not being into this pattern. It really doesn’t seem like he is. I know he’s more focused on NYC than DC, but he at least ostensibly bunches them together in his analysis. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1754303304689914314?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktgHe’s a smart fella. We’ve got smart fellas here too, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: See above. It has most definitely been kicked. At one point we were talking about the 5th as being the start of trackable threats. A week later and we're still posting 384 hr maps. And besides, this is the panic room. I mean the storm on the 5th did happen, just 500 miles too far east. I am sorta with you on the 14th threat not being talked about but it’s still there as the 0z gfs showed. Either way the 15th was pinned as the start of the real pattern change, we typically take a little bit of time after that to score. Now if it’s next weekend and we are still posting 384 maps then it’s concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The goalposts are quietly being moved. Now it’s all the last week of February into early March. I didn’t think a dry February was even possible in a Nino? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Long range looks really good. There's no reason to be posting in here. But if I WERE going to post, I'd say, "March looks like at least 3 HECS rain storms" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Same thing I heard. Not sure what the other two are talking about...at not time was early Feb hyped to be a great period. I mean maybe somebody mentioned that a threat in the LR *might* have a chance...but it was never "This is when the pattern flips". Read this post very very carefully. I could find you like 100 others posts just like it talking about a late Jan early Feb epic pattern change. The can has been kicked a month. Soon we will be tracking spring! 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 21 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Read this post very very carefully. I could find you like 100 others posts just like it talking about a late Jan early Feb epic pattern change. The can has been kicked a month. Soon we will be tracking spring! At least when we're tracking spring we can be sure of success! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The goalposts are quietly being moved. Now it’s all the last week of February into early March. I didn’t think a dry February was even possible in a Nino?I have no complaints about the weather this week, that’s for sure lol. February is the best of both worlds…better snow chances, but also have Spring around the corner to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 39 minutes ago, 87storms said: I have no complaints about the weather this week, that’s for sure lol. February is the best of both worlds…better snow chances, but also have Spring around the corner to look forward to. No complaints here either, I’ve been enjoying it quite a bit! Been doing a lot of outdoor daytrips. If it’s not going to snow, sunny and warm is the next best thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 How much for Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 These big gaps mid-Winter are like "meh" I am ready for Spring. It will be kind of annoying to have a lot of snow that melts in 2-3 days.. then is in like the 50s. Or 45 that feels like 60 lol December-mid Jan snows are so much better 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 23 hours ago, mdhokie said: Uh, go back and read the previous long range thread. It gets harder the farther you go back because people delete old images, but there was hype around the Feb 5/6 period, then there was hype around the Feb 14 period. Now its hype around the Feb 20 period. All I know is the warm up period has been longer than anticipated. Local ski resorts have had one or two short night time snowmaking opportunities in the last two weeks. Its supposedly middle of winter! Look at the 7 day forecast for Western MD! Depressing. Those lows are deceiving too, it takes forever to cool down and theres a short amount of time early in the AM where its actually cold enough to make snow before the sun comes. I don't need wall to wall winter but 3 weeks of spring in the middle of our best climo sucks. Okay I went back and read... going to disagree pretty strongly with this entire statement. If you thought Feb 5/6 wasn't a long shot when we saw it pop up around the 25th, you weren't paying attention close enough. Numerous posts about how it would be nice to score during our "lull" that week. Here's a few from around then... And what do we see on the 11/12th and beyond the last few GFS runs? Cold air being reestablished with shortwaves sliding across to our south. If the can has been kicked it's like 2 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 43 minutes ago, TSG said: Okay I went back and read... going to disagree pretty strongly with this entire statement. If you thought Feb 5/6 wasn't a long shot when we saw it pop up around the 25th, you weren't paying attention close enough. Numerous posts about how it would be nice to score during our "lull" that week. Here's a few from around then... And what do we see on the 11/12th and beyond the last few GFS runs? Cold air being reestablished with shortwaves sliding across to our south. If the can has been kicked it's like 2 days I guess low 50s is considered cold these days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I guess low 50s is considered cold these days.. Try reading it slower. I know it's tough for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, TSG said: Okay I went back and read... going to disagree pretty strongly with this entire statement. If you thought Feb 5/6 wasn't a long shot when we saw it pop up around the 25th, you weren't paying attention close enough. Numerous posts about how it would be nice to score during our "lull" that week. Here's a few from around then... And what do we see on the 11/12th and beyond the last few GFS runs? Cold air being reestablished with shortwaves sliding across to our south. If the can has been kicked it's like 2 days That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Read this post very very carefully. I could find you like 100 others posts just like it talking about a late Jan early Feb epic pattern change. The can has been kicked a month. Soon we will be tracking spring! So you latched onto a single post from Jan 10th and then ignored the next 2 weeks of pattern discussion. Cool. And you know the people discussing the forecast can only discuss what the models are spitting out, right? Hoffman's post was effectively "if this look holds, this is our best chance in forever". You chose to interpret that as gospel 3 weeks out. You've been in this hobby way too long to expect models to be that accurate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically. This board gets a little bit more insane every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically. The last thing I want to do is insult you so don't take this the wrong way. You seem like a very nice person and give off a kindness and there's definitely a need for that on this board but you simply try too hard and that leads to incredible annoyance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, HighStakes said: The last thing I want to do is insult you so dont take this the wrong way.You seem like a very nice person and give off a kindness and there's definitely a need for that on this board but you simply try too hard and that leads to incredible annoyance. Try too hard? In what way? I mean I know I get vigorously defensive when folks attack me, and I gotta work on that...but I'd like to know what you mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: "Try too hard"...hmm, in what way? I think if you prohibited yourself from using "lol" in any posts going forward that would be an easy win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: I think if you prohibited yourself from using "lol" in any posts going forward that would be an easy win. Okay...I do that everywhere when I try to indicate not being serious--hard to communicate in text but I can work on that. So again though, how am I trying to hard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Okay...so again though, how am I trying to hard? Dude I don't know, I'm hardly one to give advice on being liked on an Internet forum. This is a strange forum too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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