RevWarReenactor Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 50 minutes ago, Fozz said: The good pattern was always expected to get in place around mid month. Yea a trackable storm appeared around the 5th but that was always a thread the needle situation. A possible MECS if it all went perfectly but not our main window. Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th. Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen) How much do you want to bet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th. Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen) How much do you want to bet? i'm thinking maybe if you want to see more consistent wintry weather you shouldn't live somewhere that is still within range of some species of palm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 haha the euro smashes that thing to oblivion on Feb 5th. Smashes it back into the gulf of mexico from whence it came Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, paulythegun said: haha the euro smashes that thing to oblivion on Feb 5th. Smashes it back into the gulf of mexico from whence it came what ? You mean it didnt show this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Ji said: what ? You mean it didnt show this? That run was funny--that low did a dang ring-a-round the rosy, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 as long as this thread is open....we are going to keep having bad lucks and things trending the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Ji said: as long as this thread is open....we are going to keep having bad lucks and things trending the wrong way This thread was open when things trended the right way twice two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Looks like we have a nice dry period over the next 14 days time to wash the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, WhiteoutMD said: Looks like we have a nice dry period over the next 14 days time to wash the car. True that. I just washed the X on Saturday, had some salt spray on it. Looks like a good decision as it should stay clean for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 21 hours ago, Ji said: as long as this thread is open....we are going to keep having bad lucks and things trending the wrong way I actually agree with this. This thread serves no purpose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This winter is like Groundhog day for the last several years! We look in the future, get excited, and then get a gut punch or below the belt. Lame! Need to break the curse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Who wants to choose the weekend as their threat window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 March is gonna be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 24 minutes ago, 87storms said: March is gonna be awesome. Just 384 hrs away from looking at another awesome run at 384hrs. It's gonna rock! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 37 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Just 384 hrs away from looking at another awesome run at 384hrs. It's gonna rock! I think we'll get another round of winter by then, but the idea that we're actually good at March snow is a little overrated. It certainly does snow, but we usually don't get wintry periods like we had a couple weeks ago...March is a little more choppy in that regard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 54 minutes ago, 87storms said: I think we'll get another round of winter by then, but the idea that we're actually good at March snow is a little overrated. It certainly does snow, but we usually don't get wintry periods like we had a couple weeks ago...March is a little more choppy in that regard. Yeah, usually our "snowy" March is just one event. 2014 was arguably the most extreme March here ever, with multiple snows and wall-to-wall cold. The odds of something like that happening again in our lifetimes is probably very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/29/2024 at 1:38 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th. Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen) How much do you want to bet? I'll take that bet. We'd need to set some more detailed parameters, though. So number one is no measurable snow between now and February 15th. Where do we count an official measurement? BWI? Part 2 of the bet is that what, there won't be a trackable threat on February 15th? What would you consider trackable? I will absolutely throw something down with you. Let's make this interesting. Put some money where your mouth is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 hours ago, 87storms said: I think we'll get another round of winter by then, but the idea that we're actually good at March snow is a little overrated. It certainly does snow, but we usually don't get wintry periods like we had a couple weeks ago...March is a little more choppy in that regard. You should go ask them how much snow we historically get at DCA in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, Steve25 said: I'll take that bet. We'd need to set some more detailed parameters, though. So number one is no measurable snow between now and February 15th. Where do we count an official measurement? BWI? Part 2 of the bet is that what, there won't be a trackable threat on February 15th? What would you consider trackable? I will absolutely throw something down with you. Let's make this interesting. Put some money where your mouth is. Sure, lets do it. BWI is good. When I say trackable threat, it has to be showing up on the 144hr (6 days) or less GFS and has to have at least SOME support from other guidance. I have no question there will be plenty of fictional storms, cold air, and epic pattern changes at that time on the 216+hour. I maintain there is a very good chance that I-95 shuts out the rest of the winter. A dusting-an inch aside. An epic win would be a 5+ inch snowstorm at this point that brought the area to AVERAGE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 37 minutes ago, IronTy said: You should go ask them how much snow we historically get at DCA in March. You know its breaking down when people start pulling out the "it can snow in March" routine. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said: Sure, lets do it. BWI is good. When I say trackable threat, it has to be showing up on the 144hr (6 days) or less GFS and has to have at least SOME support from other guidance. I have no question there will be plenty of fictional storms, cold air, and epic pattern changes at that time on the 216+hour. I maintain there is a very good chance that I-95 shuts out the rest of the winter. A dusting-an inch aside. An epic win would be a 5+ inch snowstorm at this point that brought the area to AVERAGE. So, it's hard to make a bet based on perspective over what's a threat and what's not and how much model support there is. There's nothing definite about any of that. Let's do it based on actual accumulation. If you're saying you're confident there will be no snow up to the 15th AND that there won't be any trackable threats within 6 days of the 15th, what kind of potential accumulation would you consider a trackable threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 13 hours ago, Steve25 said: So, it's hard to make a bet based on perspective over what's a threat and what's not and how much model support there is. There's nothing definite about any of that. Let's do it based on actual accumulation. If you're saying you're confident there will be no snow up to the 15th AND that there won't be any trackable threats within 6 days of the 15th, what kind of potential accumulation would you consider a trackable threat? You are kind of splitting hairs here. Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 ok....no digital blue. What do I do next? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 30 minutes ago, Ji said: ok....no digital blue. What do I do next? Panic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Chasing patterns 2+ weeks out: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 56 minutes ago, Ji said: ok....no digital blue. What do I do next? Smear some blueberries on your screen it really works! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: You are kind of splitting hairs here. Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly. Alright I'm in on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: You are kind of splitting hairs here. Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly. What are we putting on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 These poor folks. They never look at models hoping to see digital blue. They can't wait until late March when it starts to rain. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: These poor folks. They never look at models hoping to see digital blue. They can't wait until late March when it starts to rain. LOL. And look how calmly those Sapporoans walk and drive in the snow. ON snow-covered roads and sidewalks. If that were here, bitches would be all up, canceling school and closing gov't offices, and all OTHER kinds of shit.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now