Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
 Share

Recommended Posts

On 1/24/2024 at 5:44 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Last 7 years: Least snowiest years in our history. What one could reasonably expect in our city climo wasn't even met. I don't get why people don't understand that...this is the worst stretch in many of our lifetimes. I'm 33 and have never gone 7 years without getting at leasd one footer, or a period with two less than 2-inch winters in a three year span. This is not what I consider the "normal" inconsistent snowfall. That 7 year period has felt worse to me.

Some of you have unrealistic expectations. Climate is not static. It’s probably the case that snowfall over the last seven years is more normal for DC’s climate today than snowfall decades ago.

Just look at temperatures, the mean for December & January is 8th warmest overall dating to the early 1870s, yet 6 of the preceding 22 winters were as warm or warmer over that time frame. Two others are within a half degree (2017, 2020). Counting this winter, fully 9 of the past 23 winters had a December & January mean of at least 42F - a reading that in the past would be considered extreme. That means these conditions are more or less normal over the past quarter century. This is not an atypical DC winter - this is a typical DC winter of the 21st century.

There is a very strong negative correlation between temperature and snowfall, so it only stands to reason that snowfall, on the average, would be less. Also 80 degree readings in January might not be that extreme. Yes, it’s only happened once in recorded history now. But in the current climate era, it might be an event expected to occur once a decade or so. We don’t have enough data to say so.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Overnight models runs ops and ens were a trainwreek. Tough time of the season to potentially be kicking the can. But at least we have the Ravens today! :yikes:

Please go back to the pa thread. This is Va md dc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I’m way upstate ny. 100 miles north of Albany in mountains and even here. Nothing sticks. Ha! Waste of a trip. At least I can go take a walk in the old snow and pretend like the old snow is the new snow even though the new snow is not sticking to the old snow. Boom!

 

 

 

627EAD97-C7DC-4045-BD76-334BFEBF0C0A.jpeg

I was once up in western NY with 3-4 feet of snow already on the ground, and we got a decent but brief snow squall. I tried to pretend for a moment that it had just snowed 40 inches in one day… but it just didn’t feel the same as a homemade snowstorm. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My prediction, I-95 only ends up with another dusting-2 inches this year.

There is about a 10% chance of having an additional 8 inches on top of the 8 inches we've already had. A 16 inch seasonal total would be a huge boom.

 

People calling for even a 20 inch season total are delusional. Climate has clearly changed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The mojo in the long range thread is gone, no more epic pattern talk, +2m anomalies that never die.  Getting close to “bring on the cherry blossoms”.

The big secret is, long range tracking is garbage. You can predict the future far more accurately by looking at our regions climo. Which is warm and snowless with a once every couple of years shot at a cold and snowy period followed by more warm and snowless.

Climo says the so called called pattern change is a no show. Which is why the can keeps getting kicked until they are over there tracking spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets rewind the clocks two weeks ago. We were tracking 2 moderate snowfalls. A brief reset period of warmth and then early Feb would be amazing.

I remember PSU saying he couldn't draw a better pattern if you gave him crayons.

Well here we are. Where is the pattern change? How has the can not been kicked?

LR tracking is garbage. We will be here 2 weeks from now and still looking out 2 weeks for this phantom pattern change that will never come.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

We were tracking 2 moderate snowfalls.

I hope you cherished that week. I did to the fullest, and if this winter ended today, I’d come away with that magical week satisfied. Not happy with my snowfall forecast and falling short of KU potential, but I’d be content with the best wintry week we’ve had in years. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Lets rewind the clocks two weeks ago. We were tracking 2 moderate snowfalls. A brief reset period of warmth and then early Feb would be amazing.

I remember PSU saying he couldn't draw a better pattern if you gave him crayons.

Well here we are. Where is the pattern change? How has the can not been kicked?

LR tracking is garbage. We will be here 2 weeks from now and still looking out 2 weeks for this phantom pattern change that will never come.

no one said early Feb would be amazing

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

no one said early Feb would be amazing

Are you sure? It seems you all don't realize you spend all winter tracking amazing patterns that are always two weeks away.

 

The post after his is showing an amazing pattern for Jan 25/26th.

How did that one go? Wasn't it 80 in DC that day? LOL

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I hope you cherished that week. I did to the fullest, and if this winter ended today, I’d come away with that magical week satisfied. Not happy with my snowfall forecast and falling short of KU potential, but I’d be content with the best wintry week we’ve had in years. 

I agree. It was a good week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Lets rewind the clocks two weeks ago. We were tracking 2 moderate snowfalls. A brief reset period of warmth and then early Feb would be amazing.

I remember PSU saying he couldn't draw a better pattern if you gave him crayons.

Well here we are. Where is the pattern change? How has the can not been kicked?

LR tracking is garbage. We will be here 2 weeks from now and still looking out 2 weeks for this phantom pattern change that will never come.

Early Feb was never expected to be amazing. My goodness you’re such a weenie.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Go back and look. It was. We've been tracking good patterns 2 weeks away all winter.

The good pattern was always expected to get in place around mid month.

Yea a trackable storm appeared around the 5th but that was always a thread the needle situation. A possible MECS if it all went perfectly but not our main window.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You are getting greedy. 3 inches is the new 30 inches! Snow is rare.

Our Climo is now what Charleston SC had 20 years ago. 

 

lol I wish.  If it's not gonna snow a winter full of highs in the 60s and 70s sounds awesome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...