Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[paulythegun]

[IronTy]

Proof it's over. For the past three years in a row I've found caterpillars of Manduca Rustica in the chaste bush over my driveway. Rustica is a southern species (Gulf Coast) that is known to stray north sometimes in late summer. But they have clearly established a breeding population in Calvert County if I'm finding the caterpillars this regularly. Prior to the past three years I never saw a single individual for the 20yes I've been here.

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[Jebman]

For real deep winter you need to move to Northern Alberta.

[clskinsfan]

20 hours ago, IronTy said:

Proof it's over. For the past three years in a row I've found caterpillars of Manduca Rustica in the chaste bush over my driveway. Rustica is a southern species (Gulf Coast) that is known to stray north sometimes in late summer. But they have clearly established a breeding population in Calvert County if I'm finding the caterpillars this regularly. Prior to the past three years I never saw a single individual for the 20yes I've been here.

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Looks like a tomato horn worm to me?

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Looks like a tomato horn worm to me?

Same. Not sure what this is about lol

[Wxdood]

22 hours ago, IronTy said:

Proof it's over. For the past three years in a row I've found caterpillars of Manduca Rustica in the chaste bush over my driveway. Rustica is a southern species (Gulf Coast) that is known to stray north sometimes in late summer. But they have clearly established a breeding population in Calvert County if I'm finding the caterpillars this regularly. Prior to the past three years I never saw a single individual for the 20yes I've been here.

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lol... what?

[Kay]

TIL apparently it's a different but similar looking sphinx moth caterpillar

https://inaturalist.lu/journal/origamilevi/60093-types-of-manduca-sphinx-moths-in-the-usa

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Same. Not sure what this is about lol

Same family but a completely different moth.  Much larger too.  

Point being they are not normally breeding this far north but clearly they have for the past three years as we've continued to warm....ergo, it's over.  

[stormtracker]

On 1/21/2024 at 7:50 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

I think our one week little snowfest might have been it. Heck that might be it for the next 5-10 years the way things are now.

 

My thoughts have now turned towards a chase. Hope upstate NY can score next weekend. Gfs hinted it at off and on. If so…. I’ll be there

Cool.  See you in here next winter.  Your postings will be missed.

[RevWarReenactor]

17 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Cool.  See you in here next winter.  Your postings will be missed.

This is the panic room. Save your endless complaining about the complainers for the model thread!

As for me, I am chasing a foot+ snowstorm somewhere into NY State this weekend. I have haven't left winter. Im just leaving this garbage climo area.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

This is the panic room. Save your endless complaining about the complainers for the model thread!

As for me, I am chasing a foot+ snowstorm somewhere into NY State this weekend. I have haven't left winter. Im just leaving this garbage climo area.

Save your admonishing for another board.  Go chase and come back next winter.  Oh, let me not forget, !!!

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

This is the panic room. Save your endless complaining about the complainers for the model thread!

As for me, I am chasing a foot+ snowstorm somewhere into NY State this weekend. I have haven't left winter. Im just leaving this garbage climo area.

lmao you live in Newark Delaware - not sure what you're expecting.

[paulythegun]

GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have this trend at the end of the run (vs previous runs)

[Chris78]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something continues to be a recurring theme, great looking pattern, lackluster snow output. Yesterday’s euro control was the best example yet. 
This 30 day mean pattern 

Still put the axis of snow north of us 

with that pattern we should be more worried about suppression. It’s been doing this a lot. Suggesting the snow will be displaced north of where I expect based on the pattern. Not saying I buy it. Long range snow means aren’t often great tools. Just flagging this in case it does happen to note the models keep showing it. 

I'm going to post this here to not derail the long range thread.

My average is almost 30". Even more in a Nino. 

I'm at 12" so far. Realistically probably still going to be at that number entering February.  2/3rds of winter gone.

The past 7 days have been great but certainly this winter hadn't been what I think alot of folks were expecting including myself.

I have alot of ground to make up in 4 or 5 weeks just to get to average. Can it happen?  Sure . Will it? Who knows? 

My wag is we get a moderate storm and a couple small ones and I end up in the 20 to 25 range. 

Thats Ok and a he'll of alot better than last year but overall underwhelming and a little disappointing considering what we average in a Nino.

Any snow is good snow but we really need to make our hay in these type of winters. Next winter looks like a disaster from a overall look.....

[RevWarReenactor]

5 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

lmao you live in Newark Delaware - not sure what you're expecting.

People act like our little 1 week of winter where we got 8 inches of snowfall suddenly makes up for the last 8 years of garbage. It doesn't. We are still below average for the year even. 

 

 

[wxdude64]

8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

People act like our little 1 week of winter where we got 8 inches of snowfall suddenly makes up for the last 8 years of garbage. It doesn't. We are still below average for the year even. 

 

 

*Takes quick glance at stats*

So, Newark is about 50/50 BWI to PHL, BWI seasonal average to date is 6.9 and PHL is 8.0, so I'll go 7. If you are at 8, then you ARE running above average. Would we ALL like to have more? You bet! But saying this past week wasn't good and a relief to many snow starved folks is a bit much. 

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

*Takes quick glance at stats*

So, Newark is about 50/50 BWI to PHL, BWI seasonal average to date is 6.9 and PHL is 8.0, so I'll go 7. If you are at 8, then you ARE running above average. Would we ALL like to have more? You bet! But saying this past week wasn't good and a relief to many snow starved folks is a bit much. 

This past week was exactly what I needed. It was perfect here where live. I made up for a lot of the past shitty winters. I had an amazing week. I definitely made it memorable. I did stuff I've wanted to do for a long time. Oh, yeah. This is the panic room. Oops. 

Well. That sucked. My beautiful 9" thick snowpack is turning into swamp. 

[Jebman]

As for the rain trying to move NE into Texas, some silly son of a birch tree has erected a Klingon Anti Rain Shield at Eagle Pass. All the rain bound for me is evaporating. 

Some El nino.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Late Feb into early March would be the prime time for something big looking at the h5 evolution on the weeklies/extended products verbatim. Subject to some change ofc.

Well that would fly in the face of our history...lol It's not scientific, but man that post PD wall feels so real when you look at that list! For some reason...big ones just don't come after that. March 1993 (anomalous), March 1958...that's it, lol

[Steve25]

5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

People act like our little 1 week of winter where we got 8 inches of snowfall suddenly makes up for the last 8 years of garbage. It doesn't. We are still below average for the year even. 

 

 

I haven't seen anyone acting like last week "makes up for" our awful run of winters. I've seen people who love winter and gotten out and enjoyed a wintry scene while it was around.

I'm very annoyed by the past 8 years. It's pretty much daily that I think about the fact that its been 8 years since my last 6+ inch snowfall. I'm annoyed that we're going to punt the last week or January and likely the first week of February. I'm unhappy that there's really only been 1 week that's felt like winter so far. You're absolutely not alone in that. 

I still didn't let all those very real negative feelings stop me from enjoying last week. I took lots of great pictures and ventured out to enjoy it. I spent many moments glancing out the window at the snow covered scenery, just taking it in. None of that takes away the winter frustrations overall, but it provides joy and positive memories from being in the moment. 

I think most, if not all, from this forum who shared their joy from the past week feel very similarly. Being joyful in the moment doesn't at all mean that the overall landscape still isn't good. You still have to stop and enjoy the little things because if you don't, you'll just become bitter and frustrated 24/7, no matter what. 

 

[Steve25]

58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well that would fly in the face of our history...lol It's not scientific, but man that post PD wall feels so real when you look at that list! For some reason...big ones just don't come after that. March 1993 (anomalous), March 1958...that's it, lol

Agreed. It's kind of making me cringe when I see them saying our chances for a big one aren't until then. I can trust mid-Feb, but getting into that last week of February...

[stormtracker]

7 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

People act like our little 1 week of winter where we got 8 inches of snowfall suddenly makes up for the last 8 years of garbage. It doesn't. We are still below average for the year even. 

 

 

How many illegal U turns you gonna make on your way to upstate NY?

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well that would fly in the face of our history...lol It's not scientific, but man that post PD wall feels so real when you look at that list! For some reason...big ones just don't come after that. March 1993 (anomalous), March 1958...that's it, lol

It's just an interpretation of the super long range guidance wrt the HL look, and how the progression typically goes before big storm chances enter the picture. Those better looks could develop/mature sooner. How about KU potential mid month and beyond? Better?

[RevWarReenactor]

12 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

*Takes quick glance at stats*

So, Newark is about 50/50 BWI to PHL, BWI seasonal average to date is 6.9 and PHL is 8.0, so I'll go 7. If you are at 8, then you ARE running above average. Would we ALL like to have more? You bet! But saying this past week wasn't good and a relief to many snow starved folks is a bit much. 

*takes a glance at stats**

 

We average about15 inches of snow a year. So we are only about half to AVERAGE.  

 

Its truly hilarious that 1 week of winter and 8 inches of snow totally erases the last 8 years for you all and you somehow think we are doing great. LOL!

[RevWarReenactor]

7 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I haven't seen anyone acting like last week "makes up for" our awful run of winters. I've seen people who love winter and gotten out and enjoyed a wintry scene while it was around.

I'm very annoyed by the past 8 years. It's pretty much daily that I think about the fact that its been 8 years since my last 6+ inch snowfall. I'm annoyed that we're going to punt the last week or January and likely the first week of February. I'm unhappy that there's really only been 1 week that's felt like winter so far. You're absolutely not alone in that. 

I still didn't let all those very real negative feelings stop me from enjoying last week. I took lots of great pictures and ventured out to enjoy it. I spent many moments glancing out the window at the snow covered scenery, just taking it in. None of that takes away the winter frustrations overall, but it provides joy and positive memories from being in the moment. 

I think most, if not all, from this forum who shared their joy from the past week feel very similarly. Being joyful in the moment doesn't at all mean that the overall landscape still isn't good. You still have to stop and enjoy the little things because if you don't, you'll just become bitter and frustrated 24/7, no matter what. 

 

Yeah- I have nothing wrong with celebrating and enjoying the last week. I just think some are like "know you climo" suddenly when in fact our climo is still well below average.

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

I think we have a new acronym to use- besides the standards like NAO, MJO, SER - I think we now can use PTR- (perfect track rainstorm)  

[Bob Chill]

55 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yeah- I have nothing wrong with celebrating and enjoying the last week. I just think some are like "know you climo" suddenly when in fact our climo is still well below average.

 

Here's the thing Rev, we all view the world through our own lenses/perspectives. We just walked out of an 8 day snow covered stretch mostly below freezing with 6-12" of snowfall in one week. Full coverage of excellent sledding and hiking snow for an entire week+ and the scenery was outstanding. That simply doesn't happen here often at all and that's a hard fact. It was a remarkable winter week in any winter. And what you are criticizing is people enjoying and being satisfied with a rare and beautiful  anomalous week of winter weather.

You obviously hated it and and nearly every post you make is a glass half empty. And you really want people to see it your way. Majority of people are actually optimistic on the balance and can be satisfied with the small things in life. Instead of criticizing that, maybe.... maybe consider trying to add some of that into your life. Satisfaction and happiness is a free will choice that we all make every single day. It's free, harmless, and the payoff is huge. 

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Here's the thing Rev, we all view the world through our own lenses/perspectives. We just walked out of an 8 day snow covered stretch mostly below freezing with 6-12" of snowfall in one week. Full coverage of excellent sledding and hiking snow for an entire week+ and the scenery was outstanding. That simply doesn't happen here often at all and that's a hard fact. It was a remarkable winter week in any winter. And what you are criticizing is people enjoying and being satisfied with a rare and beautiful  anomalous week of winter weather.

You obviously hated it and and nearly every post you make is a glass half empty. And you really want people to see it your way. Majority of people are actually optimistic on the balance and can be satisfied with the small things in life. Instead of criticizing that, maybe.... maybe consider trying to add some of that into your life. Satisfaction and happiness is a free will choice that we all make every single day. It's free, harmless, and the payoff is huge. 

 

True- snow was around for several days- great for my son to actually go sledding in coastal Delaware.  It was great and something that certainly doesn’t happen every winter here 

[RevWarReenactor]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the thing Rev, we all view the world through our own lenses/perspectives. We just walked out of an 8 day snow covered stretch mostly below freezing with 6-12" of snowfall in one week. Full coverage of excellent sledding and hiking snow for an entire week+ and the scenery was outstanding. That simply doesn't happen here often at all and that's a hard fact. It was a remarkable winter week in any winter. And what you are criticizing is people enjoying and being satisfied with a rare and beautiful  anomalous week of winter weather.

You obviously hated it and and nearly every post you make is a glass half empty. And you really want people to see it your way. Majority of people are actually optimistic on the balance and can be satisfied with the small things in life. Instead of criticizing that, maybe.... maybe consider trying to add some of that into your life. Satisfaction and happiness is a free will choice that we all make every single day. It's free, harmless, and the payoff is huge. 

 

I am not making the argument that last week wasn't good and that people shouldn't have enjoyed it. I enjoyed it, and made tons of positives posts on it. Go back and look. I was nothing but positive.

I am simply saying that there is nothing wrong with being frustrated with going back to a blow torch pattern right after; A shut the blinds pattern, and people trying to claim we are now in fact "spoiled" and we should "know our climo" when in fact we are well below average.

I guess what I am saying in, the people who COMPLAIN ABOUT THE COMPLAINERS are actually far worse than the complainers themselves.

Also- this is the panic room. Find me one, just one post this year where I complained in the model thread. It doesn't exist.

[wxdude64]

4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

*takes a glance at stats**

 

We average about15 inches of snow a year. So we are only about half to AVERAGE.  

 

Its truly hilarious that 1 week of winter and 8 inches of snow totally erases the last 8 years for you all and you somehow think we are doing great. LOL!

*Takes quick glance at stats*

So, Newark is about 50/50 BWI to PHL, BWI seasonal average to date is 6.9 and PHL is 8.0, so I'll go 7. If you are at 8, then you ARE running above average. Would we ALL like to have more? You bet! But saying this past week wasn't good and a relief to many snow starved folks is a bit much. 

You missed a few (and most important) words in my comment.... just saying. You are AHEAD of average ATM, enjoy!