Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[Ruin]

Im really tired of this happening lol. it doesnt happen to these dame rain storms but always to the snow storms. up and vanished like a fart in the wind 

 

 

 

[Jebman]

I am having a real hard time posting. Why do my fingers keep going right thru the damn keyboard?

[caviman2201]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When I retired years ago, it was time. After years of building, owning, and operating The Panic Room, I was tired. I needed to hang up the scythe and engage in other pursuits. 
I took up rest. 

I became something of a celebrity. You may have seen some of my cameo appearances on television. 

 

And of course, I've enjoyed the beach. 

But deep down, I always knew when I retired that there was a chance I'd have to put on the Garment of Darkness again as the cries of Mid-Atlantic weenies grew louder with successive years of snow futility.
I've watched with concern as [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]slipped into madness, saying that the days of Mid-Atlantic snow have ended.

My empty chest cavity sank as I saw the rage on the subforum boil over daily and the schadenfreude that warmed the heart of [mention=1705]mattie g[/mention].

Even folks like [mention=108]H2O[/mention] seem lost.

I sat by quietly and witnessed the devolution of this subforum, until I received a call I couldn't avoid.

This is one of the greatest things I've ever read...

 

I'm inspired to be reaped
 

[caviman2201]

I feel like Walter in Money Pit when he finally loses the last little glimmer of hope and just starts laughing maniacally

https://youtu.be/9CJ9EDtZ2p8?si=BayC48ScmEurWTxj

[PrinceFrederickWx]

20 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I feel like Walter in Money Pit when he finally loses the last little glimmer of hope and just starts laughing maniacally

https://youtu.be/9CJ9EDtZ2p8?si=BayC48ScmEurWTxj

I already posted this on the previous page lol

[Weather Will]

[BristowWx]

This is pretty fucking depressing.  We have to get one modest event before curtain call don’t we? Just one for fucks sake.    

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This is pretty fucking depressing.  We have to get one modest event before curtain call don’t we? Just one for fucks sake.    

Are you willing to step away--like all the way away--from this site and tracking for a day or two? I think it will help (sure helped me last year).

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's fine....everything is fine. The upcoming pattern is the KU look....I read it here. If not that one then the one after is it. The cutters will pave the wave....pattern progression. Patience. Buckle up. Fuck, give me more of those good meds ffs...

[Ruin]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's fine....everything is fine. The upcoming pattern is the KU look....I read it here. If not that one then the one after is it. The cutters will pave the wave....pattern progression. Patience. Buckle up. Fuck, give me more of those good meds ffs...

lol yep same song and dance like the last 2 years esp last year. we finally look to really get a cold stretch and no storms. now watch we will get a huge storm that turns into a lake cutter warms us up and then cools back down after lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

lol yep same song and dance like the last 2 years esp last year. we finally look to really get a cold stretch and no storms. now watch we will get a huge storm that turns into a lake cutter warms us up and then cools back down after lol.

Sad part is, the forecast 'cold stretch' is run of the mill cold now and moves out as fast as it moves in. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS thru Sat Am.  My snow hole continues....

 

[dailylurker]

What happened to the cold lol. What a shitty gfs run. Cold dry for a few days then back to the normal 50 and sunny. Maybe even 60. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are you willing to step away--like all the way away--from this site and tracking for a day or two? I think it will help (sure helped me last year).

At some point between last winter and the Canadian wildfires I transitioned into full-on climate doomer. I keep checking in the hopes we at least get a MECS to prove my worst fears wrong, in the short term at least…

I have four young kids and it scares me what this planet is going to look like by the time they grow up. 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are you willing to step away--like all the way away--from this site and tracking for a day or two? I think it will help (sure helped me last year).

Why do you keep saying this can’t go in my book. It failed similarly to many of our fails.  We needed NS cooperation which is harder when you have an accelerated jet displaced north which is 100% related to the elephant!  
 

We had nearly identical patterns to this in 1966 and 1987 that each produced multiple snowstorms. But it required a NS wave to dig down into the MS valley to phase with the STJ and produce a coastal storm. This time the waves are all flat and none dig enough. The NS not digging far enough south anymore is most definitely book worthy. 
 

[RevWarReenactor]

DT has to be in a weird spot. Loves the Euro, hyped the Tuesday storm and pretended like his favorite model was not against him. Euro sniffed out the no storm and the GFS caved. Now he will just pretend like his previous posts didn't happen and anyone calling for a snowstorm on Tuesday is a "moron"

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Why do you keep saying this can’t go in my book. It failed similarly to many of our fails.  We needed NS cooperation which is harder when you have an accelerated jet displaced north which is 100% related to the elephant!  
 

We had nearly identical patterns to this in 1966 and 1987 that each produced multiple snowstorms. But it required a NS wave to dig down into the MS valley to phase with the STJ and produce a coastal storm. This time the waves are all flat and none dig enough. The NS not digging far enough south anymore is most definitely book worthy. 
 

I didn't know that...and I'm not sure you ever made an explanation about the NS and the jet. I thought the book was more about the perfect track rainstorms, and things being too warm temperature-wise. I don't know enough about the relationship of that jet and climate. Wasn't purposely trying to be obtuse...just didn't know about that particular connection with the NS not digging (had you talked about that specific thing before?)

No need to yell at me for ignorance (this stuff can be complicated)...legit didn't know that. My bad

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I didn't know that...and I'm not sure you ever made an explanation about the NS and the jet. I thought the book was more about the perfect track rainstorms, and things being too warm temperature-wise. I don't know enough about the relationship of that jet and climate. Wasn't purposely trying to be obtuse...just didn't know about that particular connection with the NS not digging (had you talked about that specific thing before?)

No need to yell at me for ignorance (this stuff can be complicated)...legit didn't know that. My bad

It’s not just perfect track rainstorms. It’s the jet stream shifting north

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

It’s not just perfect track rainstorms. It’s the jet stream shifting north

I see. Unless I missed something, I don't believe that has been discussed much here...hence why I didn't know. I mean, I heard jet "extension" and "retraction" but not that something out there was being affected by the elephant.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see. Unless I missed something, I don't believe that has been discussed much here...hence why I didn't know. I mean, I heard jet "extension" and "retraction" but not that something out there was being affected by the elephant.

Chuck has talked about the hadley cell expansion. To translate Chuck-speak, the tropics and midlatitudes have been warming so their circulation has been expanding, pushing the jet slightly north, and taking all the storm tracks with it. 

This is the key flaw in my own analysis of how past snowstorms would perform today. My assumption was that the storm tracks would remain the same, but the temps a few degrees warmer. But what I did not account for (or have the resources to analyze) was how the storm tracks would be affected by that warming. 

Take the blizzard of 1996 for example. That was a la nina winter. Normally the jet would cut north of us, but that storm dived so deep to the south that we got a hit from it. Do you think that if we got the same setup today, but the jet is further north, we’d still get the same result? Or would it have not dug so deep? Would it have been a cutter today? Or a miller B? Or even NO storm at all?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Chin up, if it can snow in Mississippi, it can still snow here....

Or…. places south of us aren’t getting much snow either. Yes every once in a blue moon an anomaly happens and somewhere south gets snow. And every time someone posts that it’s a good sign for us.  No it’s not. It just means we are now in the same lot as them where every once in a long while we get a fluke anomaly event to get snow.  The line where snow happens “regularly” in winter has pushed north of us in general.
 

For the last 8 years we’ve been getting the same results as you would expect from upstate SC. Exactly. DC is getting the results you would expect from outside the mountains and I’m getting the results you would expect from a bit higher elevation in NW SC!  

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Or…. places south of us aren’t getting much snow either. Yes every once in a blue moon an anomaly happens and somewhere south gets snow. And every time someone posts that it’s a good sign for us.  No it’s not. It just means we are now in the same lot as them where every once in a long while we get a fluke anomaly event to get snow.  The line where snow happens “regularly” in winter has pushed north of us in general.
 

For the last 8 years we’ve been getting the same results as you would expect from upstate SC. Exactly. DC is getting the results you would expect from outside the mountains and I’m getting the results you would expect from a bit higher elevation in NW SC!  

You might be slightly exaggerating. How much snow did you get in winter 2020-21? I remember it being a lot, and I doubt SC in the old climate would’ve gotten that.

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Chuck has talked about the hadley cell expansion. To translate Chuck-speak, the tropics and midlatitudes have been warming so their circulation has been expanding, pushing the jet slightly north, and taking all the storm tracks with it. 

This is the key flaw in my own analysis of how past snowstorms would perform today. My assumption was that the storm tracks would remain the same, but the temps a few degrees warmer. But what I did not account for (or have the resources to analyze) was how the storm tracks would be affected by that warming. 

Take the blizzard of 1996 for example. That was a la nina winter. Normally the jet would cut north of us, but that storm dived so deep to the south that we got a hit from it. Do you think that if we got the same setup today, but the jet is further north, we’d still get the same result? Or would it have not dug so deep? Would it have been a cutter today? Or a miller B? Or even NO storm at all?

i don’t see the point in this kind of retrospective stuff. there’s zero way for us to know. i’m sure there are setups where we would have actually wanted a farther north NS to prevent a phase back then 

at that point it just becomes straight up overattribution, which is nearly as bad as denial IMO

[H2O]

I’m less upset about my thread ruining the storm and being locked without asking than I am that @WxWatcher007found a pic of me

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You might be slightly exaggerating. How much snow did you get in winter 2020-21? I remember it being a lot, and I doubt SC in the old climate would’ve gotten that.

The mountains in NW SC get a big winter once in a while. How did DC do that winter?  About what Greenville or Spartanburg outside the mts do in a good year lol. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t see the point in this kind of retrospective stuff. there’s zero way for us to know. i’m sure there are setups where we would have actually wanted a farther north NS to prevent a phase back then 

at that point it just becomes straight up overattribution, which is nearly as bad as denial IMO

I don’t know how you forecast without factoring this in!  And there are ways to know. Terp did a great job of quantifying how the boundary layer warming will affect storms with the same track from years ago. We could use a sophisticated simulation to project how patterns have been affected. It’s not easy.  It’s depressing but that shouldn’t stop the discourse. But how do you predict without accounting for significant changes in the effect of patterns?  

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t see the point in this kind of retrospective stuff. there’s zero way for us to know. i’m sure there are setups where we would have actually wanted a farther north NS to prevent a phase back then 

at that point it just becomes straight up overattribution, which is nearly as bad as denial IMO

As for your second point yes there might be times something shifting north is a good thing. But that’s going to be outnumbered 3-1 by the times it’s bad. We were already on the southern fringe of where snow was a regular event in winter. Places not far south of us snow was already some rare freak occurrence. Shifting the climate zones north is a huge loss for us. Yes some NC blizzard from the 70s might hit us now!  But guess what we get everything else that goes with that. We lose all the storms that his us then!  It’s a net loss!  

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know how you forecast without factoring this in!  And there are ways to know. Terp did a great job of quantifying how the boundary layer warming will affect storms with the same track from years ago. We could use a sophisticated simulation to project how patterns have been affected. It’s not easy.  It’s depressing but that shouldn’t stop the discourse. But how do you predict without accounting for significant changes in the effect of patterns?  

we just don’t have enough data yet to make actual operational changes in forecasting. models are at least trying to do that somewhat. i’m not even arguing that you’re wrong, but the game of trying to figure out what would or would not have worked like 50 years ago is a dangerous one. i’m not sure if there will ever come a point where i can say “that pattern used to work, but not anymore.” or at least not for a long time 

hell, most of the KU composites are formed from storms that have happened since 2000 as well. that data isn’t just becoming useless now 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I didn't know that...and I'm not sure you ever made an explanation about the NS and the jet. I thought the book was more about the perfect track rainstorms, and things being too warm temperature-wise. I don't know enough about the relationship of that jet and climate. Wasn't purposely trying to be obtuse...just didn't know about that particular connection with the NS not digging (had you talked about that specific thing before?)

No need to yell at me for ignorance (this stuff can be complicated)...legit didn't know that. My bad

@Terpeast did a perfect job explaining it.  I wasn’t yelling at you. I didn’t type in caps. 
 

we have discussed this a lot over the years. Maybe not so much this winter. It’s depressing so I gave it a rest. I wish perfect track rainstorms was the worst of it. That’s not even the biggest problem.  
 

I’ll give you another example. You know how the SER keeps linking up with the -nao?  In past -pna -nao patters the western trough would slide east under the block over the SER suppressing it. But what happens if you shift everything north some?  Make that SER just a little warmer and stronger…and eventually you hit a tipping point where it links up with the high latitude ridge and now the trough gets stuck in the west!  Sound familiar?  
 

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we just don’t have enough data yet to make actual operational changes in forecasting. models are at least trying to do that somewhat. i’m not even arguing that you’re wrong, but the game of trying to figure out what would or would not have worked like 50 years ago is a dangerous one. i’m not sure if there will ever come a point where i can say “that pattern used to work, but not anymore.” or at least not for a long time 

hell, most of the KU composites are formed from storms that have happened since 2000 as well. that data isn’t just becoming useless now 

All science starts as speculation. That’s step 1. Yes we need to do more work to prove anything but that never happens if we squash the speculation.