aldie 22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 hours ago, Jebman said: Panic over THIS! AFD for Dubuque Iowa: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KDVN 082321 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 521 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for entire area starting tonight at 6 PM lasting through early Wednesday morning. Heavy wet snow, and blowing snow will lead to hazardous travel across the area, especially later tonight through Tuesday evening. - A couple embedded bouts/windows heavier snow bursts expected that could lead of to over 1 inch an hour snowfall rates and rapid accumulation. - Additional chances for snow expected Wednesday night/early Thursday and bigger system again Friday into the weekend with more accumulation possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The Storm... A potentially high end winter storm warning still appears to be on track, as sfc cyclogenesis is seen currently blossoming acrs the TX/OK Panhandle region. Sfc pressure falls and kink in the gradient fields show the way of sfc low propagation toward central to east central IL by midday tomorrow. Ensemble low center depth at that time is projected to be around 985 MB or a bit lower. Several system lift mechanisms such as isentropic and F-gen are very impressive tonight with stout warm air advection(WAA) surge, translating into classic TROWAL fed Def Zone for secondary punch on Tuesday. The WAA tonight will be fed by unseasonable precipital water feed(PWATs) of 0.60 inches 150-200% of normal for this time of year. Fcst soundings and comparing them to upstream trends suggest top- down deepening saturation, with low to mid level saturation depths up over H6 mb late tonight through at least late Tue morning, including the -12 to -18C dendritic layer. The incoming amount of lift by a closed off low pressure complex utilizing this saturation depth by rule should wring out up to double the amounts of the PWAT values, thus 0.60 goes to 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent. Most of it probably being snow that translates into a foot with just base 10:1 LSRs, and that may be low with probably LSR`s varying from 10 to 12:1 along prime forcing/saturation swaths. THey will trend higher to 13:1 or higher later in the event with in-wrapping cold conveyor into departing def zone, but that will be past the time of the occurrence of the heavy snow producing processes Convective profiles later tonight on the soundings and cross- sections show some slantwise/upright convective processes after midnight into at least mid Tue morning acrs much of the CWA, as well as MUCAPEs above the forced layer possibly to support some isolated lightning discharges in robust friction filled snow columns. Thus like the previous shift noted, that convective enhancement may make for localized higher amount swaths. Snowfall rates will look to be 1- 2 inches an hour late tonight into Tue morning in the prime snow bands with these kind of profiles, and would not be surprised if a few areas experience 2-3 inch/hr rates for a few hours in the optimum lift windows. Conceptual prime forcing swath of the developing def zone on left flank of the H7 mb low would suggest the heavy snow axis may lay out from southwest of Ottumwa IA, to between IA City and the Quad Cities, and to the Freeport IL area. This area not far off from the prime conjunction of strong positive/upward omegas, -3 to -5C H85 temps, and 1000-H5 MB layer RH values of over 90-95% which lay out generally along and west of the MS RVR and then lean into far NW IL. The currently progged brisk omegas in these saturated profiles/cold enough temps would point at snowfall amounts of 10-15 inches in the prime swaths by Tue evening. Snowfall Amounts: This event, if it pans out like projected would be a once in a 10 or 12 year single snow storm event for the area. After looking at a multitude of methods old and new(some listed above), have gone with widespread 10-15 inches along and generally west of a line from Keosauqua IA, to just east of the Quad Cities, and to Freeport IL. 8-14 inches would be a general cover of most of the CWA, except for a sharp gradient drop-off to 3-7 inches along and southeast of a line from Carthage in west central IL, to Monmouth IL, and to Princeton IL. These lesser areas may get more rain-snow mix with bouts of WAA at times tonight, and a midnight decrease or temporary dry slot as well if current storm track verifies. Winds: Mix out gusts in tightening pressure gradient on backside of departing system look to be in the upper 30 KT range, thus 40-45 MPH north to northwest gusts will complicate things with plenty of drifting and some blowing. Depending on the consistency of the snow pack and intensity of the lingering snow, can`t rule out near blizzard or blizzard like conditions in rural/open areas late Tuesday into Tuesday night. But that will have to be assessed for an update in headlines as the finale of the event unfolds and condition`s/visibility trends area noted tomorrow afternoon and evening. Wind chills in the low teens to single digits by Wed morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Key Messages: 1. Below normal temperatures Wednesday through Monday. 2. Active pattern continues through the long term period with several chances of snow Wednesday night through Monday. Wednesday through Thursday: Zonal (west to east) flow in in place across the CONUS to start the period at 12 UTC on Wednesday as we sit in the base of a longwave trough. Ridging is forecast to move quickly across the area during the day with a relaxing pressure gradient across the area. Some blowing and drifting will be ongoing on Wednesday morning but it will become less widespread as the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds come down. A fast moving clipper system will move across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be cooler with lows in the teens above zero. This will lead to snow to liquid ratios across the area ranging from 10 to 15 to 1 across the area making it a drier snow. The better lift and moisture will be along and north of a Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line. Snowfall amounts up to an inch are possible west of the Mississippi River with 1 to 2 inches possible in Clinton, Jackson, Carroll, Whiteside and Jo Daviess Counties. Subtle Shortwave ridging and quiet weather will follow for the day on Thursday. Thursday night into Saturday: A digging 500 MB trough will move into the Plains Thursday night into Friday. Currently, the 500 mb trough is forecast to transition from a wave with neutral tilt to more of a negative tilt as it moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley and then lift into southwest Ontario by 12 UTC on Saturday. Overall this is a similar track to the current storm system. Current model runs spread precipitation into the area Thursday night and continuing into early Saturday morning. Colder is forecast to move into the area later in the day on Friday once the surface low passes leading to a high snow to liquid ratios. There will also be a strong pressure gradient with this storm system so it will be windy through the event with blowing snow possible especially Friday into Saturday morning. Accumulating snow looks like likely from this storm system. Saturday night through Sunday night: It will turn noticeably colder Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Low temperatures on Sunday morning are forecast to range from 0 to -5*F. The coldest air of the year will move into the area on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures at 850 MB will be around -20*C resulting in high temperatures in the single digits above zero. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night will drops in the single digits below zero area wide. Winds will be breezy during this period. Currently wind chills are forecast to drop into the teens below zero during this period but this will likely change over the coming days. Models have another clipper moving through the flow aloft and differ in its location resulting in differences in the placement of precipitation and snow across the area. The GFS and ECWMF track the surface wave south of the area and keep the bulk of the precipitation across Missouri while the Canadian brings it right across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Snow, mixed with a bit of rain at the front edge, is moving north, and will impact all TAF sites around 00z. In the top-down saturation under way, with CIGs going from MVFR to IFR the next hour or two. Easterly sfc winds will continue to increase and gust into the evening, then decrease a bit toward morning in southern areas, but by afternoon, strong north winds are expected in all areas. Wet snow will fall tonight through the morning hours Tuesday. As the bouts of heavier snow move in from the south mid to late evening, then another high snowfall rate(1-2" an hour) from 3 am through 10-11 am Tuesday at most sites producing LIFR conditions and quick snow accums on the runways. These LIFR conditions may linger through the day along and north of Interstate 80, while seeing a bit of improvement in the south. By mid afternoon, as winds increase from the north, blowing snow and falling snow will create another period of LIFR conditions that will last through Tuesday night. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ042-053- 054-065>068-078-089. IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for MOZ009-010. You just gotta WUB this stuff. It's the stuff of pure snow weenie DREAMS! I panicked and quoted this long ass post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 hours ago, Jebman said: Panic over THIS! AFD for Dubuque Iowa: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KDVN 082321 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 521 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for entire area starting tonight at 6 PM lasting through early Wednesday morning. Heavy wet snow, and blowing snow will lead to hazardous travel across the area, especially later tonight through Tuesday evening. - A couple embedded bouts/windows heavier snow bursts expected that could lead of to over 1 inch an hour snowfall rates and rapid accumulation. - Additional chances for snow expected Wednesday night/early Thursday and bigger system again Friday into the weekend with more accumulation possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The Storm... A potentially high end winter storm warning still appears to be on track, as sfc cyclogenesis is seen currently blossoming acrs the TX/OK Panhandle region. Sfc pressure falls and kink in the gradient fields show the way of sfc low propagation toward central to east central IL by midday tomorrow. Ensemble low center depth at that time is projected to be around 985 MB or a bit lower. Several system lift mechanisms such as isentropic and F-gen are very impressive tonight with stout warm air advection(WAA) surge, translating into classic TROWAL fed Def Zone for secondary punch on Tuesday. The WAA tonight will be fed by unseasonable precipital water feed(PWATs) of 0.60 inches 150-200% of normal for this time of year. Fcst soundings and comparing them to upstream trends suggest top- down deepening saturation, with low to mid level saturation depths up over H6 mb late tonight through at least late Tue morning, including the -12 to -18C dendritic layer. The incoming amount of lift by a closed off low pressure complex utilizing this saturation depth by rule should wring out up to double the amounts of the PWAT values, thus 0.60 goes to 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent. Most of it probably being snow that translates into a foot with just base 10:1 LSRs, and that may be low with probably LSR`s varying from 10 to 12:1 along prime forcing/saturation swaths. THey will trend higher to 13:1 or higher later in the event with in-wrapping cold conveyor into departing def zone, but that will be past the time of the occurrence of the heavy snow producing processes Convective profiles later tonight on the soundings and cross- sections show some slantwise/upright convective processes after midnight into at least mid Tue morning acrs much of the CWA, as well as MUCAPEs above the forced layer possibly to support some isolated lightning discharges in robust friction filled snow columns. Thus like the previous shift noted, that convective enhancement may make for localized higher amount swaths. Snowfall rates will look to be 1- 2 inches an hour late tonight into Tue morning in the prime snow bands with these kind of profiles, and would not be surprised if a few areas experience 2-3 inch/hr rates for a few hours in the optimum lift windows. Conceptual prime forcing swath of the developing def zone on left flank of the H7 mb low would suggest the heavy snow axis may lay out from southwest of Ottumwa IA, to between IA City and the Quad Cities, and to the Freeport IL area. This area not far off from the prime conjunction of strong positive/upward omegas, -3 to -5C H85 temps, and 1000-H5 MB layer RH values of over 90-95% which lay out generally along and west of the MS RVR and then lean into far NW IL. The currently progged brisk omegas in these saturated profiles/cold enough temps would point at snowfall amounts of 10-15 inches in the prime swaths by Tue evening. Snowfall Amounts: This event, if it pans out like projected would be a once in a 10 or 12 year single snow storm event for the area. After looking at a multitude of methods old and new(some listed above), have gone with widespread 10-15 inches along and generally west of a line from Keosauqua IA, to just east of the Quad Cities, and to Freeport IL. 8-14 inches would be a general cover of most of the CWA, except for a sharp gradient drop-off to 3-7 inches along and southeast of a line from Carthage in west central IL, to Monmouth IL, and to Princeton IL. These lesser areas may get more rain-snow mix with bouts of WAA at times tonight, and a midnight decrease or temporary dry slot as well if current storm track verifies. Winds: Mix out gusts in tightening pressure gradient on backside of departing system look to be in the upper 30 KT range, thus 40-45 MPH north to northwest gusts will complicate things with plenty of drifting and some blowing. Depending on the consistency of the snow pack and intensity of the lingering snow, can`t rule out near blizzard or blizzard like conditions in rural/open areas late Tuesday into Tuesday night. But that will have to be assessed for an update in headlines as the finale of the event unfolds and condition`s/visibility trends area noted tomorrow afternoon and evening. Wind chills in the low teens to single digits by Wed morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Key Messages: 1. Below normal temperatures Wednesday through Monday. 2. Active pattern continues through the long term period with several chances of snow Wednesday night through Monday. Wednesday through Thursday: Zonal (west to east) flow in in place across the CONUS to start the period at 12 UTC on Wednesday as we sit in the base of a longwave trough. Ridging is forecast to move quickly across the area during the day with a relaxing pressure gradient across the area. Some blowing and drifting will be ongoing on Wednesday morning but it will become less widespread as the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds come down. A fast moving clipper system will move across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be cooler with lows in the teens above zero. This will lead to snow to liquid ratios across the area ranging from 10 to 15 to 1 across the area making it a drier snow. The better lift and moisture will be along and north of a Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line. Snowfall amounts up to an inch are possible west of the Mississippi River with 1 to 2 inches possible in Clinton, Jackson, Carroll, Whiteside and Jo Daviess Counties. Subtle Shortwave ridging and quiet weather will follow for the day on Thursday. Thursday night into Saturday: A digging 500 MB trough will move into the Plains Thursday night into Friday. Currently, the 500 mb trough is forecast to transition from a wave with neutral tilt to more of a negative tilt as it moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley and then lift into southwest Ontario by 12 UTC on Saturday. Overall this is a similar track to the current storm system. Current model runs spread precipitation into the area Thursday night and continuing into early Saturday morning. Colder is forecast to move into the area later in the day on Friday once the surface low passes leading to a high snow to liquid ratios. There will also be a strong pressure gradient with this storm system so it will be windy through the event with blowing snow possible especially Friday into Saturday morning. Accumulating snow looks like likely from this storm system. Saturday night through Sunday night: It will turn noticeably colder Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. Low temperatures on Sunday morning are forecast to range from 0 to -5*F. The coldest air of the year will move into the area on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures at 850 MB will be around -20*C resulting in high temperatures in the single digits above zero. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night will drops in the single digits below zero area wide. Winds will be breezy during this period. Currently wind chills are forecast to drop into the teens below zero during this period but this will likely change over the coming days. Models have another clipper moving through the flow aloft and differ in its location resulting in differences in the placement of precipitation and snow across the area. The GFS and ECWMF track the surface wave south of the area and keep the bulk of the precipitation across Missouri while the Canadian brings it right across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Snow, mixed with a bit of rain at the front edge, is moving north, and will impact all TAF sites around 00z. In the top-down saturation under way, with CIGs going from MVFR to IFR the next hour or two. Easterly sfc winds will continue to increase and gust into the evening, then decrease a bit toward morning in southern areas, but by afternoon, strong north winds are expected in all areas. Wet snow will fall tonight through the morning hours Tuesday. As the bouts of heavier snow move in from the south mid to late evening, then another high snowfall rate(1-2" an hour) from 3 am through 10-11 am Tuesday at most sites producing LIFR conditions and quick snow accums on the runways. These LIFR conditions may linger through the day along and north of Interstate 80, while seeing a bit of improvement in the south. By mid afternoon, as winds increase from the north, blowing snow and falling snow will create another period of LIFR conditions that will last through Tuesday night. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ042-053- 054-065>068-078-089. IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for MOZ009-010. You just gotta WUB this stuff. It's the stuff of pure snow weenie DREAMS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 30 pages…lotta panic for a winter that should t be so panicky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: 30 pages…lotta panic for a winter that should t be so panicky People are broken, and I’m not even joking. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: People are broken, and I’m not even joking. You ain't lying and you're rhyming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 59 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Interesting ocean and union county. I was born in Rahway grew up in Toms River. Maybe we are related. Small world! I live at the TR / Manchester border and work up in Union Co. Grew up in Middlesex / Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, Fozz said: This frame from the 12z Euro made me panic because I just know that in the old climate, this would've been snow for the cities in mid-January. I’m not saying the snowless streak will go on that long. For the record I think the snowlessness is a combo of bad cycle and warming. We likely get a somewhat better period at some point even with warming. But let’s say it doesn’t improve. What if we continue at the same snowfall rate we’ve had on avg the last 8 years where DC is averaging about what Charlotte NC or Spartanburg SC should! How long do you think before those denying the climate has changed come around? 2 more years? 5 more years? Are we in 2040 and it’s been 25 years since Baltimore had a 6” snow and they’re still saying it’s just bad luck and we will turn it around any day now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not saying the snowless streak will go on that long. For the record I think the snowlessness is a combo of bad cycle and warming. We likely get a somewhat better period at some point even with warming. But let’s say it doesn’t improve. What if we continue at the same snowfall rate we’ve had on avg the last 8 years where DC is averaging about what Charlotte NC or Spartanburg SC should! How long do you think before those denying the climate has changed come around? 2 more years? 5 more years? Are we in 2040 and it’s been 25 years since Baltimore had a 6” snow and they’re still saying it’s just bad luck and we will turn it around any day now? By then it’ll be time to move to Labrador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Small world! I live at the TR / Manchester border and work up in Union Co. Grew up in Middlesex / Monmouth. Born / raised in Middlesex county and my parents now live in Whiting in Ocean County. Small world! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not saying the snowless streak will go on that long. For the record I think the snowlessness is a combo of bad cycle and warming. We likely get a somewhat better period at some point even with warming. But let’s say it doesn’t improve. What if we continue at the same snowfall rate we’ve had on avg the last 8 years where DC is averaging about what Charlotte NC or Spartanburg SC should! How long do you think before those denying the climate has changed come around? 2 more years? 5 more years? Are we in 2040 and it’s been 25 years since Baltimore had a 6” snow and they’re still saying it’s just bad luck and we will turn it around any day now? Never 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Never Sad but true 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sad but true there has been some awful stretches before https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf 1918-1921 1926-1932 1949-1957! Rivals this one 1972-1977 we have seen the best of DMV winters. I will take what we have seen over any generation except for maybe the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 23 minutes ago, Ji said: there has been some awful stretches before https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf 1918-1921 1926-1932 1949-1957! Rivals this one 1972-1977 we have seen the best of DMV winters. I will take what we have seen over any generation except for maybe the 60s I’m just thankful that all my formative years were in those good times. Especially 2003, 2010, 2014, 2016. I’ll never forget those winters, especially if we never get anything like them again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: I’m just thankful that all my formative years were in those good times. Especially 2003, 2010, 2014, 2016. I’ll never forget those winters, especially if we never get anything like them again. If memory serves we're the same age...so same! I am even more thankful for those winters now. They are certainly more precious given how much uncertainty we have about our future snows. What an epic period from 2010-2016! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2016 sucked lol. We had 4 days of cold. A freak snow that melted 36 hours later with temps in the 60's. That was it for that winter. Sure.. better then the garbage lately, but hardly a good winter. 2014-15 was the last winter we had basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I don’t want to go too far down this rabbit hole, but I think our current 7 year winter suckage is a combo of background warming, natural cycles that are unfavorable, and bad luck. We’ve had troughs favoring the west in winter for years now, but up until winter 16-17 it was the opposite with a seemingly permanent ridge out west. Remember the “ridiculously resilient ridge” out west? Sucked for them but we loved it. That cycle flipped HARD. I think that switch will flip again at some point to favor a trough in the east in winter, but background warming will probably mean it’s not as productive as it would have been in the previous cycle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I don’t want to go too far down this rabbit hole, but I think our current 7 year winter suckage is a combo of background warming, natural cycles that are unfavorable, and bad luck. We’ve had troughs favoring the west in winter for years now, but up until winter 16-17 it was the opposite with a seemingly permanent ridge out west. Remember the “ridiculously resilient ridge” out west? Sucked for them but we loved it. That cycle flipped HARD. I think that switch will flip again at some point to favor a trough in the east in winter, but background warming will probably mean it’s not as productive as it would have been in the previous cycle. i think people definitely underestimate luck and the little minutiae that go into every storm. NYC south needs luck to snow more than like 1-3". it's a significant component given that so much can go wrong. we seem to have run out for the last year and change, but it will be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i think people definitely underestimate luck and the little minutiae that go into every storm. NYC south needs luck to snow more than like 1-3". it's a significant component given that so much can go wrong. we seem to have run out for the last year and change, but it will be back Right now just to get 1” we need fantastic luck, straight arctic air, the entire continent covered in feet of snow, a -9SD NAO/AO combo, joined -EPO/+PNA ridge from Costa Rica to Siberia… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Right now just to get 1” we need fantastic luck, straight arctic air, the entire continent covered in feet of snow, a -9SD NAO/AO combo, joined -EPO/+PNA ridge from Costa Rica to Siberia… I'm sure ski resorts felt the same way in 2013-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I keep hearing about this massive arctic outbreak coming- looking at my local forecast I do get down to the teens one night/ but above freezing every single day . And this is peak January climo time. Color me not impressed. At least I had 2 days last winter below freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 hours ago, nj2va said: Born / raised in Middlesex county and my parents now live in Whiting in Ocean County. Small world! Grew up in Monmouth County (Marlboro). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I lived in Tinton Falls/ Mon County for 30 years. Born in Long Branch at Mon Medical. My Ex grandparents live in Whiting. People seem way too enthusiastic in the LR thread over next Tuesday's rainstorm. I am just not seeing much of anything other than a brief cool down followed by more cutters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Right now just to get 1” we need fantastic luck, straight arctic air, the entire continent covered in feet of snow, a -9SD NAO/AO combo, joined -EPO/+PNA ridge from Costa Rica to Siberia… It wasn't like this a decade ago. Seemed like every other night we were getting clippers and light snowfall. Things have been really strange. It just doesn't want to snow. Even when it has snowed here in the last decade its very non stick. Haven't had a plow in here since the BLizzard of 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Dropping off my daughter at preschool, I saw the kids artwork portraying a winter wonderland using cotton as snow. I felt a pang of heartbreak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, dailylurker said: 2016 sucked lol. We had 4 days of cold. A freak snow that melted 36 hours later with temps in the 60's. That was it for that winter. Sure.. better then the garbage lately, but hardly a good winter. 2014-15 was the last winter we had basically. 15-16 was way better in SoMD than 14-15. We had another WSW on President's Day (some areas got more from that than the HECS), then another borderline WSW event in early March, and even an accumulating event in April. 14-15 was only really good if you were in the northern tier. Of course both winters look amazing compared to the last two years here, so I'd take either of them at this point LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 hours ago, Ji said: there has been some awful stretches before https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf 1918-1921 1926-1932 1949-1957! Rivals this one 1972-1977 we have seen the best of DMV winters. I will take what we have seen over any generation except for maybe the 60s I have referenced that period in the 1950's as the closest comp to this...but pointed out this is worse, and I think that's where warming comes in. That period you referenced BWI averaged 13.3" with a median of 14.1. The last 7 years BWI has averaged 9.9" with a median of 10.9. Both were comparably bad periods and similar to the averages of those periods if you normalize for warming and our lower snow averages now but that just proves my point. The stats are similar for DC. That period in 49-57 avg snow was 10.9" with a 10.2 median. Now DC's avg since 2016 is 6.8" with a median of 5.4. This is worse. But what is really scary is that every previous snow drought that was somewhat close to this was bookended by epic snowfall periods. For example that period you referenced in the 50's was preceded by 8/9 years above 20" and followed by 4/5 years above 30". So, unless we go on an absolute snow heater VERY SOON...things will start to become absolutely unprecedented with no previous period that comes even close in comparison. You are right at this moment there are a couple previous periods that while not as bad are close enough that you could make the argument its just random. But if this drought continues a couple more years that argument becomes impossible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, dailylurker said: 2016 sucked lol. We had 4 days of cold. A freak snow that melted 36 hours later with temps in the 60's. That was it for that winter. Sure.. better then the garbage lately, but hardly a good winter. 2014-15 was the last winter we had basically. 21 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: 15-16 was way better in SoMD than 14-15. We had another WSW on President's Day (some areas got more from that than the HECS), then another borderline WSW event in early March, and even an accumulating event in April. 14-15 was only really good if you were in the northern tier. Of course both winters look amazing compared to the last two years here, so I'd take either of them at this point LOL *glances at his 14/15 15/16 records* 14/15- 33.7 15/16- 33.4 *has questions* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 *glances at his 14/15 15/16 records* 14/15- 33.7 15/16- 33.4 *has questions*We didn’t have any big snows outside of Snowzilla in ‘16, but I do have a couple inches in my records from Feb 15 (looks like it stuck to all surfaces) and several snow showers/icing events. I was living in Bethesda at the time, so there might have been more further nw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: *glances at his 14/15 15/16 records* 14/15- 33.7 15/16- 33.4 *has questions* Wasn't the 15/16 season one storm? Warm Rain, 40 inches of snow. Warm Rain. Not that one should complain about that, but I'd have preferred it spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: *glances at his 14/15 15/16 records* 14/15- 33.7 15/16- 33.4 *has questions* IMBY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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