Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1

Need to add a "not" to this.

[87storms]

Doug K nailed last year’s snowfall forecast, though it would be kinda funny if he’s way off this winter.

[87storms]

its dec 1 and we are 0-2 in snow windows...i think we are cooked

Our winters are now only two months long, so we still have time.

[stormy]

46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1

His other 50 inches next couple months will make up for it.   IAD  43 inches should equate to 50 at PSU Knob.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Need to add a "not" to this.

I gotchu...

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1

All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.

We could obviously still get above average, but the epic winter calls like 02/03 and 09/10 are already in serious trouble IMHO. We would need to start getting on the board soon or we’re already falling behind.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We could obviously still get above average, but the epic winter calls like 02/03 and 09/10 are already in serious trouble IMHO. We would need to start getting on the board soon or we’re already falling behind.

In 09 we had had no snow at this point if I’m not mistaken. In Winchester we had 51” of snow in 10 days at the end of Jan into the first of Feb. 

[CAPE]

I'm just glad the Mount PSU snow correlation doesn't apply to my yard.

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

In 09 we had had no snow at this point if I’m not mistaken. In Winchester we had 51” of snow in 10 days at the end of Jan into the first of Feb. 

By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times.

LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006

[Wxdavis5784]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times.

LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006

What about 2014? 

[Wxdavis5784]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times.

LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006

Do you get paid to cry? 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

What about 2014? 

We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230

[Jebman]

Winter is still on track for the Mid Atlantic.

[Wxdavis5784]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230

I guess I should just break out the shorts and make a fucking martini.

[Wxdavis5784]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230

I would bet you and others would be shitting their pants if we had an early season snowfall, finding reasons to correlate to a warm winter. Just stop FFS! 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

I would bet you and others would be shitting their pants if we had an early season snowfall, finding reasons to correlate to a warm winter. Just stop FFS! 

Not really sure what you're trying to get at here. I love snow, I'm just grounded in reality down here. 

[Wxdavis5784]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really sure what you're trying to get at here. I love snow, I'm just grounded in reality down here. 

I’m just saying your posts are more bipolar than Kanye at the White House…

[Wxdavis5784]

@WxWatcher007 Can you please come out of retirement just once and take my soul? I promise to have Angel of death by Slayer playing on repeat and will lurk for eternity. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). 

For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). 

For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc.

Can you do this for the bottom 10 as well?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Can you do this for the bottom 10 as well?

I'm about to head out but I can when I get time.

[cbmclean]

First signs of concern from @CAPE.  The signal is degrading?

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

First signs of concern from @CAPE.  The signal is degrading?

Not the signal!!

What I said was the advertised h5 look on the Pacific side has degraded on the means over the last several runs.

I should probably be banned from here for this post- if I have done anything to inhibit the panic, I apologize. Please carry on..

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not the signal!!

What I said was the advertised h5 look on the Pacific side as degraded on the means over the last several runs.

I should probably be banned from here for this post- if I have done anything to inhibit the panic, I apologize. Please carry on..

Maybe we can squeeze something in during late January/early February before the inevitable Nino March torch?? 

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). 

For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc.

I have my doubts this is a top tier winter. I'm optimistic it can be an above average winter though for the area.

 

We're looking at Kirk Cousins not Patrick Maholmes lol.

[nj2va]

since this winter is over, should we start the Winter 24-25 thread?  

[EastCoast NPZ]

Since I'm lapping the field in the snowfall contest, I expect the same level of respect Kammerer got for his call last winter. 

[LP08]

22 minutes ago, nj2va said:

since this winter is over, should we start the Winter 24-25 thread?  

I saw a tweet about it being a Nina….maybe start a 25-26 thread. 

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I saw a tweet about it being a Nina….maybe start a 25-26 thread. 

Solar forcing going to be crappy for another few years. Might want to look forward to like 30-31.