Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with this.  That was why I used 2010 as the line.  Maybe it is a shorter term cycle, probably some of that going on.  But since 2010 DC has been more like NC used to be.  And Richmond and RDU have become the "deep south".  

Can't argue with you there. And, my bad, I think the small discrepancy in amounts may have simply been you using calendar years. When I want a mean of a series, I'll often just throw it in NowData which does the math automatically, but it defaults to winter season [water year] for snowfall amounts, rather than calendar year.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but we knew coming in the concern.  Nino patterns have historically been very snow...but also not very cold...and many of the snowstorms were in patterns that were marginally cold enough even in the past.  Would that still work?  We have had a couple perfect track rainstorms already.  If that keeps happening we have our answer.  

Last year I remember you said that things that should have given us snow in the past; just aren't anymore.

Really stuck with me. 

We always walked a fine line here in the MA between snow and nothing. Maybe we've finally turned the corner and now are on the wrong side of that line. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Now quite THAT bad...but I will stick this nugget here for reference...

Since 2010 in the last 14 seasons DC has averaged 10.6" with a median of 7.8" 

From 1932-1990 Richmond VA averaged 14.2" with a median of 13.4"

From 1930-1990 Greensboro NC averaged 10.6" with a median of 8.3

 

So since 2010 DC's snow climo has been like central NC was from 1930-1990 

Pretty crazy considering we've had some really good years since 2010. 

 

Just shows how bad its been since 2016.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Pretty crazy considering we've had some really good years since 2010. 

 

Just shows how bad its been since 2016.

2010-2016 was epic. We are just in a bad 7 year stretch which has happened numerous times in the past 100 plus years

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

2010-2016 was epic. We are just in a bad 7 year stretch which has happened numerous times in the past 100 plus years

I find my self on team PSU suspecting the elephant in the room. However, I cling to memories of 1997-2001 being a pretty bad (albeit shorter) stretch up in Harrisburg where I grew up. I think '00 might have had a winter saver or two.

 

Anyone have a good site that gives you annual snowfall totals by airport?

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Pretty crazy considering we've had some really good years since 2010. 

 

Just shows how bad its been since 2016.

If you only look at the last 7 years DC snowfall has been more like southern NC or northern SC used to be. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I find my self on team PSU suspecting the elephant in the room. However, I cling to memories of 1997-2001 being a pretty bad (albeit shorter) stretch up in Harrisburg where I grew up. I think '00 might have had a winter saver or two.

 

Anyone have a good site that gives you annual snowfall totals by airport?

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu

[psuhoffman]

I was curious why the euro weeklies have such a low snowfall mean despite looking good. So I looked at the control. 
 

This 30 day pattern only leads to 3” of snow! 

Despite that look the snowfall remained pretty far north. 

[Steve25]

I'm not in "panic" mode at all. I am in a lousy mindset tonight so I thought why not vent here. 

Just getting a little tired of hearing "Just wait until..." Yada Yada. I heard it all of December. Just wait until the end of December/beginning of January, things are going to flip! Yet, here we are, in the midst of a week long stretch approaching mid-January with THREE rainstorms. 

Frankly, I still firmly believe Baltimore will see a 6+ inch snowfall this winter. Mainly just because even in this hellscape of a period were entrenched in, I still don't think we go 8 full winters without a 6 inch snowfall. I refuse to believe that will happen, unless it does happen, then I'll cry myself to sleep later on in March when the reality is cemented in LOL

 

 

 

[Steve25]

Also, BWI has NEVER went 8 consecutive winters UNDER 20 inches of snow. We've gone 7 years, twice. 

1970/71-1976/77

And the current 2016/17-2022/23

So yeah, if we stay under 20 this winter, it'll be the first time since records have been kept that it's happened. 

[Terpeast]

It’s still unheard of for our area to go 3 years in a row without any measurable snow (over an inch) so until that actually happens, I don’t believe it will happen. 

But, hypothetically speaking, if we really do get nothing this season, then the truth would be clear to us. La Nina, El Nino, La Nada, +NAO, -NAO… doesn’t matter anymore.

We’ll start looking at 500mb maps not for snow in our backyards, but where to chase for the weekend. My next outlook will be built for family winter vacation planning purposes. 

[Jebman]

That monster storm is truckin' NE at speed. A line of storms down in the Louisiana region is truckin' NE at an incredible 83 mph as indicated by radar. There are going to be a few slight wind gusts with this, as well as one hell of a moisture transport. It is pulling prodigious amounts of moisture not only off of the Golfo de Mexico, but also off the Pacific, straight off the Parque Nacional Revillagigedo! It's mind-boggling just watching it get bigger and stronger kind of like a monster truck on serious steroids. It's coming at the Mid Atlantic FAST. Better look out! I cant post the radar but trust me, this thing means serious, SERIOUS BIZNASS!

[87storms]

It’s still unheard of for our area to go 3 years in a row without any measurable snow (over an inch) so until that actually happens, I don’t believe it will happen. 
But, hypothetically speaking, if we really do get nothing this season, then the truth would be clear to us. La Nina, El Nino, La Nada, +NAO, -NAO… doesn’t matter anymore.
We’ll start looking at 500mb maps not for snow in our backyards, but where to chase for the weekend. My next outlook will be built for family winter vacation planning purposes. 

For whatever reason, the upper level flow has been subpar for nearly 2 years now. I don’t know a lot, but I’m able to tell a quality h5 pattern and I haven’t really seen one yet. I know the 540 thickness doesn’t need to be under us to snow if we have an infiltration of cold at the lower levels, but we can’t get a high pressure to stay locked in when we need it. Maybe next week will start a better trend.

[Jebman]

Panic over THIS!

AFD for Dubuque Iowa:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

000
FXUS63 KDVN 082321
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
521 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for entire area starting
tonight at 6 PM lasting through early Wednesday morning. Heavy wet
snow, and blowing snow will lead to hazardous travel across the
area, especially later tonight through Tuesday evening.

- A couple embedded bouts/windows heavier snow bursts expected that
could lead of to over 1 inch an hour snowfall rates and rapid
accumulation.

- Additional chances for snow expected Wednesday night/early
Thursday and bigger system again Friday into the weekend with more
accumulation possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

The Storm...

A potentially high end winter storm warning still appears to be on
track, as sfc cyclogenesis is seen currently blossoming acrs the
TX/OK Panhandle region. Sfc pressure falls and kink in the gradient
fields show the way of sfc low propagation toward central to east
central IL by midday tomorrow. Ensemble low center depth at that
time is projected to be around 985 MB or a bit lower. Several system
lift mechanisms such as isentropic and F-gen are very impressive
tonight with stout warm air advection(WAA) surge, translating into
classic TROWAL fed Def Zone for secondary punch on Tuesday.

The WAA tonight will be fed by unseasonable precipital water
feed(PWATs) of 0.60 inches 150-200% of normal for this time of year.
Fcst soundings and comparing them to upstream trends suggest top-
down deepening saturation, with low to mid level saturation depths
up over H6 mb late tonight through at least late Tue morning,
including the -12 to -18C dendritic layer. The incoming amount of
lift by a closed off low pressure complex utilizing this saturation
depth by rule should wring out up to double the amounts of the PWAT
values, thus 0.60 goes to 1.2 inches of liquid equivalent. Most of
it probably being snow that translates into a foot with just base
10:1 LSRs, and that may be low with probably LSR`s varying from 10
to 12:1 along prime forcing/saturation swaths. THey will trend
higher to 13:1 or higher later in the event with in-wrapping cold
conveyor into departing def zone, but that will be past the time of
the occurrence of the heavy snow producing processes

Convective profiles later tonight on the soundings and cross-
sections show some slantwise/upright convective processes after
midnight into at least mid Tue morning acrs much of the CWA, as well
as MUCAPEs above the forced layer possibly to support some isolated
lightning discharges in robust friction filled snow columns. Thus
like the previous shift noted, that convective enhancement may make
for localized higher amount swaths. Snowfall rates will look to be 1-
2 inches an hour late tonight into Tue morning in the prime snow
bands with these kind of profiles, and would not be surprised if a
few areas experience 2-3 inch/hr rates for a few hours in the
optimum lift windows.

Conceptual prime forcing swath of the developing def zone on left
flank of the H7 mb low would suggest the heavy snow axis may lay out
from southwest of Ottumwa IA, to between IA City and the Quad
Cities, and to the Freeport IL area. This area not far off from the
prime conjunction of strong positive/upward omegas, -3 to -5C H85
temps, and 1000-H5 MB layer RH values of over 90-95% which lay out
generally along and west of the MS RVR and then lean into far NW IL.
The currently progged brisk omegas in these saturated profiles/cold
enough temps would point at snowfall amounts of 10-15 inches in the
prime swaths by Tue evening.

Snowfall Amounts: This event, if it pans out like projected would be
a once in a 10 or 12 year single snow storm event for the area.
After looking at a multitude of methods old and new(some listed
above), have gone with widespread 10-15 inches along and generally
west of a line from Keosauqua IA, to just east of the Quad Cities,
and to Freeport IL. 8-14 inches would be a general cover of most of
the CWA, except for a sharp gradient drop-off to 3-7 inches along
and southeast of a line from Carthage in west central IL, to
Monmouth IL, and to Princeton IL. These lesser areas may get more
rain-snow mix with bouts of WAA at times tonight, and a midnight
decrease or temporary dry slot as well if current storm track
verifies.

Winds: Mix out gusts in tightening pressure gradient on backside of
departing system look to be in the upper 30 KT range, thus 40-45 MPH
north to northwest gusts will complicate things with plenty of
drifting and some blowing. Depending on the consistency of the snow
pack and intensity of the lingering snow, can`t rule out near
blizzard or blizzard like conditions in rural/open areas late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. But that will have to be assessed for an
update in headlines as the finale of the event unfolds and
condition`s/visibility trends area noted tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Wind chills in the low teens to single digits by Wed morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Key Messages:

1. Below normal temperatures Wednesday through Monday.

2. Active pattern continues through the long term period with
several chances of snow Wednesday night through Monday.

Wednesday through Thursday:

Zonal (west to east) flow in in place across the CONUS to start the
period at 12 UTC on Wednesday as we sit in the base of a longwave
trough. Ridging is forecast to move quickly across the area during
the day with a relaxing pressure gradient across the area. Some
blowing and drifting will be ongoing on Wednesday morning but it
will become less widespread as the pressure gradient relaxes and
wind speeds come down.

A fast moving clipper system will move across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be cooler with lows
in the teens above zero. This will lead to snow to liquid ratios
across the area ranging from 10 to 15 to 1 across the area making it
a drier snow. The better lift and moisture will be along and north
of a Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line. Snowfall
amounts up to an inch are possible west of the Mississippi River
with 1 to 2 inches possible in Clinton, Jackson, Carroll, Whiteside
and Jo Daviess Counties. Subtle Shortwave ridging and quiet weather
will follow for the day on Thursday.

Thursday night into Saturday:

A digging 500 MB trough will move into the Plains Thursday night
into Friday. Currently, the 500 mb trough is forecast to transition
from a wave with neutral tilt to more of a negative tilt as it moves
into the Mid Mississippi Valley and then lift into southwest Ontario
by 12 UTC on Saturday. Overall this is a similar track to the
current storm system. Current model runs spread precipitation into
the area Thursday night and continuing into early Saturday morning.
Colder is forecast to move into the area later in the day on Friday
once the surface low passes leading to a high snow to liquid ratios.
There will also be a strong pressure gradient with this storm system
so it will be windy through the event with blowing snow possible
especially Friday into Saturday morning. Accumulating snow looks
like likely from this storm system.

Saturday night through Sunday night:

It will turn noticeably colder Saturday night into Sunday as high
pressure builds into the region. Low temperatures on Sunday morning
are forecast to range from 0 to -5*F. The coldest air of the year
will move into the area on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures at 850 MB
will be around -20*C resulting in high temperatures in the single
digits above zero. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night
will drops in the single digits below zero area wide. Winds will be
breezy during this period. Currently wind chills are forecast to drop
into the teens below zero during this period but this will likely
change over the coming days.

Models have another clipper moving through the flow aloft and differ
in its location resulting in differences in the placement of
precipitation and snow across the area. The GFS and ECWMF track the
surface wave south of the area and keep the bulk of the
precipitation across Missouri while the Canadian brings it right
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Snow, mixed with a bit of rain at the front edge, is moving
north, and will impact all TAF sites around 00z. In the top-down
saturation under way, with CIGs going from MVFR to IFR the next
hour or two. Easterly sfc winds will continue to increase and
gust into the evening, then decrease a bit toward morning in
southern areas, but by afternoon, strong north winds are
expected in all areas. Wet snow will fall tonight through the
morning hours Tuesday. As the bouts of heavier snow move in
from the south mid to late evening, then another high snowfall
rate(1-2" an hour) from 3 am through 10-11 am Tuesday at most
sites producing LIFR conditions and quick snow accums on the
runways. These LIFR conditions may linger through the day along
and north of Interstate 80, while seeing a bit of improvement in
the south. By mid afternoon, as winds increase from the north,
blowing snow and falling snow will create another period of LIFR
conditions that will last through Tuesday night.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for
     IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ042-053-
     054-065>068-078-089.
IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for
     MOZ009-010.

 

 

You just gotta WUB this stuff. It's the stuff of pure snow weenie DREAMS!

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I was curious why the euro weeklies have such a low snowfall mean despite looking good. So I looked at the control. 

To be fair the Euro has lost it's luster over the past half decade.

[RevWarReenactor]

The good old 168hrmodel runs that suck everyone in.

Just be aware GFS has been constantly showing a blizzard for CHicago Friday/Saturday. This morning it turned their blizzard into a snow shower.

Lets see how long the models advertise next weeks storm before the rug pull. 

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Make sure you all buy in early (and be ready to sell at Happy Hour) for next Tuesday’s pump-and-dump. 

[Fozz]

This frame from the 12z Euro made me panic because I just know that in the old climate, this would've been snow for the cities in mid-January.

[Chris78]

18z gfs.

Cutter cutter suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed again then cutter

[Weather Will]

It's warm and wet or cold and dry, it just wants to make me cry, will it ever snow again?  Don't know but the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again expecting different results, so track again and again I will, as long as I can afford the internet bill!!!!

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

18z gfs.

Cutter cutter suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed again then cutter

You might have missed a cutter..but spot on.  I know we all joke around and some really panic…but it really does not look good from a strategic sense.  We can lose a battle or two but now we are losing the war.  Coming up on mid Jan…not 1 inch of snow for many of us.  

[Prestige Worldwide]

Since the last time I saw an inch of snow or more- from the looks of things it’s going to be much longer.  It might be time to move from this tropical paradise 

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You might have missed a cutter..but spot on.  I know we all joke around and some really panic…but it really does not look good from a strategic sense.  We can lose a battle or two but now we are losing the war.  Coming up on mid Jan…not 1 inch of snow for many of us.  

Just having a flashback to ‘97-98 with all these massive rainstorms. It’s possible things turn around in February but that year it did not and we have to prepare ourselves.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

15 minutes ago, Fozz said:

This frame from the 12z Euro made me panic because I just know that in the old climate, this would've been snow for the cities in mid-January.

FACTS, another perfect track rain storm in mid January. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Just having a flashback to ‘97-98 with all these massive rainstorms. It’s possible things turn around in February but that year it did not and we have to prepare ourselves.

Now 77-78 was epic in NJ when I was a kid.  That was my baseline for winters because that’s when I first started paying attention.  

[Volcanic Winter]

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now 77-78 was epic in NJ when I was a kid.  That was my baseline for winters because that’s when I first started paying attention.  

I grew up in NJ in the 2000’s and all I know is snow, it was something we saw almost every winter and never felt rare. Of course we’re talking one of the best eras ever for big snow, and my first real snow memory was 1996. Then as a young adult living in my first apartment with my then girlfriend / now wife, we had Boxing Day and got destroyed, through all the great early / mid 2010 years to 2016. Since then I’ve only seen a handful of good events, maybe a little more than some of you guys but by no means has it been good.

My perspective is very skewed by the era I grew up in, which sucks for me now. But that doesn’t change how decadal warming is going to begin eroding snow climo for the whole area, if it hasn’t to an extent already (IMHO it has). 

Good patterns and deep cold will be needed to secure results and more marginal setups will be more likely to fail, this has been the case even in coastal SNE. With that said, I do think we’ll see some big years yet when everything goes right. It didn’t just completely switch off after 2016, we just have decadal warming on top of unfavorable decadal natural variation.

Of course I want snow IMBY but I’ll be very excited if the DC metro gets crushed. I’m pulling for it, it’s needed. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I grew up in NJ in the 2000’s and all I know is snow, it was something we saw almost every winter and never felt rare. Of course we’re talking one of the best eras ever for big snow, and my first real snow memory was 1996. Then as a young adult living in my first apartment with my then girlfriend / now wife, we had Boxing Day and got destroyed, through all the great early / mid 2010 years to 2016. Since then I’ve only seen a handful of good events, maybe a little more than some of you guys but by no means has it been good.

My perspective is very skewed by the era I grew up in, which sucks for me now. But that doesn’t change how decadal warming is going to begin eroding snow climo for the whole area, if it hasn’t to an extent already (IMHO it has). 

Good patterns and deep cold will be needed to secure results and more marginal setups will be more likely to fail, this has been the case even in coastal SNE. With that said, I do think we’ll see some big years yet when everything goes right. It didn’t just completely switch off after 2016, we just have decadal warming on top of unfavorable decadal natural variation.

Of course I want snow IMBY but I’ll be very excited if the DC metro gets crushed. I’m pulling for it, it’s needed. 

Interesting ocean and union county.  I was born in Rahway grew up in Toms River.  Maybe we are related.  

[Paleocene]

I like rain

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I like Santa

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I like rain

I love scotch