Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

[BristowWx]

3 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

2 more weeks til we can punt February and start talking about shorts and 70 degree days 

You don’t gotta wait…Saturday put some shorts and take a drive.  

[Mikeymac5306]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I gotta admit, I'm starting to get weary

 

[nj2va]

As I took down the Christmas lights today, I noticed some of my daffodils are poking up. 

[aldie 22]

I don't think I've ever mowed in January before but it's a possibility this year...my grass is greening and growing 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't think I've ever mowed in January before but it's a possibility this year...my grass is greening and growing 

yep lotta green around the neighborhood with dog turds that seem to be in a perfect vegative state...they don't quite freeze and but don't dry out in the sun.  on the plus side I have been coasting with not much heat being used but not having to turn AC

[RevWarReenactor]

I am surprised you all aren't use to this by now. Its been almost a decade at this point since we've had a real area wide threat. Blizzard of 2016 was it.  I've been aware of PSU posting here for at least a good 5-6 years. I have literally yet to see him make a post that says "everything is on track for a good storm". Its been years of "something ain't quite right with this pattern". 

[dailylurker]

Our best dead ratters usually feature flooding rain and ski resorts all up and down the coast closing in January. We're checking all the boxes. Hopefully that pattern change hits in April so we can stay in the 50's with rain all spring, too. 

[snowfan]

On 12/13/2023 at 10:41 PM, ers-wxman1 said:

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

Sadly, this is looking good so far. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Sadly, this is looking good so far. 

one prophetic post a month ago captured the entire winter situation...gotta laugh.    

[kgottwald]

On 1/7/2024 at 6:37 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

Does anyone remember when it was Xmas and the LR thread was saying "get ready for early January pattern change and snow chances are coming Jan 3rd"!!

 

Now its early January, rainy, warm, and "Get ready pattern change coming Mid January everyone!"

 

LMAO!

more like "get ready for monsoon downpours, 60 degree dewpoints and SW winds so strong it's difficult to walk".

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The GFS should just stop at 240 every run and play a Rick Astley video instead of running to 384. 

[kgottwald]

And in ten years, we'll start getting Januarys with 70-degree dewpoints, and thunderstorms with tornado threats.

[dailylurker]

46 minutes ago, kgottwald said:

And in ten years, we'll start getting Januarys with 70-degree dewpoints, and thunderstorms with tornado threats.

Tomorrow is close lol

[Paleocene]

At least it's imaginary cold after our 3rd rainstorm in a row:

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think Ohio deserves 3 blizzards in a week so I’m good with this solution

just a thought... we are about to get the canonical crazy blocking we expect at some point in a nino, but all the guidance is now targeting the upper midwest not the mid atlantic for the snow blitz we expect here.  But...what if the warmer reality just means what we expect is happening...its just shifted north!  

[NorthArlington101]

just a thought... we are about to get the canonical crazy blocking we expect at some point in a nino, but all the guidance is now targeting the upper midwest not the mid atlantic for the snow blitz we expect here.  But...what if the warmer reality just means what we expect is happening...its just shifted north!  

I’m concerned. Part of the reason I like VA/DC is the threat of cool but not mega dangerous weather all four seasons. Would suck to lose winter

Time to lower your snowfall forecast?

[mdhokie]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

just a thought... we are about to get the canonical crazy blocking we expect at some point in a nino, but all the guidance is now targeting the upper midwest not the mid atlantic for the snow blitz we expect here.  But...what if the warmer reality just means what we expect is happening...its just shifted north!  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

just a thought... we are about to get the canonical crazy blocking we expect at some point in a nino, but all the guidance is now targeting the upper midwest not the mid atlantic for the snow blitz we expect here.  But...what if the warmer reality just means what we expect is happening...its just shifted north!  

never thought of that.  So our winter climate really has become upstate South Carolina.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m concerned. Part of the reason I like VA/DC is the threat of cool but not mega dangerous weather all four seasons. Would suck to lose winter

Time to lower your snowfall forecast?

For now I am not.  I think either we get things right and go on a tear or temps remain an issue and the rest of the season goes this way and we end up REALLY low...so no point changing.  If we get to the "relax" with nothing AND the relax starts to look longer than expect that is when I will call uncle. 

[Jebman]

Winter is over. Torrential rain in the Mid Atlantic thru July and the Texan drought provoking a widespread diaspora. That ledge on the 755th floor is looking so good right now.

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For now I am not.  I think either we get things right and go on a tear or temps remain an issue and the rest of the season goes this way and we end up REALLY low...so no point changing.  If we get to the "relax" with nothing AND the relax starts to look longer than expect that is when I will call uncle. 

any concern about a shutout? I think i am ending my thought of a good winter. Now i just want one good storm i guess

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

never thought of that.  So our winter climate really has become upstate South Carolina.  

Now quite THAT bad...but I will stick this nugget here for reference...

Since 2010 in the last 14 seasons DC has averaged 10.6" with a median of 7.8" 

From 1932-1990 Richmond VA averaged 14.2" with a median of 13.4"

From 1930-1990 Greensboro NC averaged 10.6" with a median of 8.3

 

So since 2010 DC's snow climo has been like central NC was from 1930-1990 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

any concern about a shutout? I think i am ending my thought of a good winter. Now i just want one good storm i guess

Not yet but we knew coming in the concern.  Nino patterns have historically been very snow...but also not very cold...and many of the snowstorms were in patterns that were marginally cold enough even in the past.  Would that still work?  We have had a couple perfect track rainstorms already.  If that keeps happening we have our answer.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Now quite THAT bad...but I will stick this nugget here for reference...

Since 2010 in the last 14 seasons DC has averaged 10.6" with a median of 7.8" 

From 1932-1990 Richmond VA averaged 14.2" with a median of 13.4"

From 1930-1990 Greensboro NC averaged 10.6" with a median of 8.3

 

So since 2010 DC's snow climo has been like central NC was from 1930-1990 

Sobering.  Adjust for your own backyard and its easy to not be very optimistic.  You average 30 inches I think.  If you get 10 inches its a fail.  DCA 10 so complete shutout is a fail.  Either way its a locational fail.  not sure what I was going for there just new ways to use the word fail.  

[Fozz]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but we knew coming in the concern.  Nino patterns have historically been very snow...but also not very cold...and many of the snowstorms were in patterns that were marginally cold enough even in the past.  Would that still work?  We have had a couple perfect track rainstorms already.  If that keeps happening we have our answer.  

Which rainstorm this season with temps in the 30s had a “perfect track” (by 20th century standards)?

I think this past weekend storm was probably too close to the coast, but a few decades ago I imagine it would’ve been 3-6” for the cities followed by a changeover, instead of nearly all rain.

[paulythegun]

January is ROCKIN'!!!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Which rainstorm this season with temps in the 30s had a “perfect track” (by 20th century standards)?

I think this past weekend storm was probably too close to the coast, but a few decades ago I imagine it would’ve been 3-6” for the cities followed by a changeover, instead of nearly all rain.

That trailing "anafront" wave in December.  It took a perfect track to give DC a nice little 2-4" snowstorm but was rain, boundary was just too warm, it was cold enough in the mid and upper levels.  The boundary is warming faster than the other levels so this is what we will see more and more.  And I don't disagree with your assessment, I don't think this past storm was ever a HECS or anything, but I think it would have been a nice 3-6" snow in a slightly colder base state.  We haven't lost out on anything MAJOR yet but we are bleeding away all the little events that added up and made a decent year a good one, or a good one a great one.  

I didn't say we failed yet.  We could still get some big storms to work out if we can actually get the WAR knocked down at some point.  This could still end up good.  But if it continues to fail with what has and looks to continue to be a good overall pattern that matches ones that produced a lot of snow...just saying we might have to consider it just doesn't work anymore.  

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m concerned. Part of the reason I like VA/DC is the threat of cool but not mega dangerous weather all four seasons. Would suck to lose winter

Time to lower your snowfall forecast?

on the plus side we live within an easy drive of places where 100" of snow in a season is considered a down year.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Now quite THAT bad...but I will stick this nugget here for reference...

Since 2010 in the last 14 seasons DC has averaged 10.6" with a median of 7.8" 

From 1932-1990 Richmond VA averaged 14.2" with a median of 13.4"

From 1930-1990 Greensboro NC averaged 10.6" with a median of 8.3

 

So since 2010 DC's snow climo has been like central NC was from 1930-1990 

One correction: I believe you are beginning in 2010-2011 [and presumably not counting this winter, which is still early on], that it 13 seasons through 2022-2023. Also, the mean, according to NowData, at DCA is 10.4" not 10.6" over that interval.

That's an interesting thought though. If we look at Greensboro, the 1951-1980 and 1961-1990 mean were 10.3 inches. The mean from 2011-2023 is down to 7.0 inches.

At Richmond, the 1951-1980 mean was 16.1 inches, and it bumped up to 16.4 inches in 1961-1990. The last 13 seasons, the mean is down to 8.6 inches.

At DCA, the 1951-1980 mean was 17.9 inches, which increased to 18.5 inches in 1961-1990. As noted, per NowData, the mean of the past 13 years is just 10.4 inches.

I like to do comparisons of 2010-present to the mid and late 20th century normals, because it seems like 2010 was when things really went south. And the 1951-1980/1961-1990 normals give a useful comparison as those were the normals in place when Millenials and younger GenX were youths.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One correction: I believe you are beginning in 2010-2011 [and presumably not counting this winter, which is still early on], that it 13 seasons through 2022-2023. Also, the mean, according to NowData, at DCA is 10.4" not 10.6" over that interval.

That's an interesting thought though. If we look at Greensboro, the 1951-1980 and 1961-1990 mean were 10.3 inches. The mean from 2011-2023 is down to 7.0 inches.

At Richmond, the 1951-1980 mean was 16.1 inches, and it bumped up to 16.4 inches in 1961-1990. The last 13 seasons, the mean is down to 8.6 inches.

At DCA, the 1951-1980 mean was 17.9 inches, which increased to 18.5 inches in 1961-1990. As noted, per NowData, the mean of the past 13 years is just 10.4 inches.

I like to do comparisons of 2010-present to the mid and late 20th century normals, because it seems like 2010 was when things really went south. And the 1951-1980/1961-1990 normals give a useful comparison as those were the normals in place when Millenials and younger GenX were youths.

I agree with this.  That was why I used 2010 as the line.  Maybe it is a shorter term cycle, probably some of that going on.  But since 2010 DC has been more like NC used to be.  And Richmond and RDU have become the "deep south".