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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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3 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

Do you not realize his game by now? If snow is projected, he blathers about some nonsense to say it won't snow. If it isn't forecast, he blathers about some nonsense to say that it will. 

I forgot to add my grain of salt to my post. 

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On 1/4/2024 at 9:02 AM, Clueless said:

Chuck is the man. 

Thanks. It's a learning opportunity. Do you see how the storm got sheared out by relative SE ridge in trend. It was because the models were not properly estimating the impacts of -PNA/RNA pattern (N. Pacific High, pretty strong). Last Winter there were a few times at 5-7 days where the models had a +EPO (Alaska trough) and they were showing snow, then it adjusted to the surface level warmth in the closer timeframe. These two patterns, -PNA and +EPO are not conductive to big snows, when they are in a strong phase, so it trended warmer and phased out (in my experience, the models don't totally account for that, for whatever reason). I showed +0.53 charts for PNA-pattern in January. https://ibb.co/mvGCw9F [default positive]. 

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90% chance of rain tonight. One half inch of rain accumulation.

 

This outcome, no real rain at all, is why Texas is blowing away. The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind. The answer, is Blowin' in the Wind.

We have a strong El Nino. The eastern part of the US will have floods. Texas is meanwhile getting drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier. The southwestern US will go the way of the ancient Mayans. You will witness this in your lifetimes. We get MISSED by 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent of all rainstorms. El Ninos are no help to us. NO HELP AT ALL, WHATSOEVER! The Austin Metropolitan Region is living proof of that. We are CURSED. We will live cursed, and we will die cursed. Of that, There is NO DOUBT. Because of the LACK of rain - I am cursed when I come in, and I am cursed when I go out.

The Nino is strong. It will bring Texas very little real rain. Then when the inevitable Nina comes later this year, we will be SUPER DRY and insufferably HOT with absolutely NO remedy, ever!

Welcome to Hell. We had some drizzle this afternoon. We got no light rain. We got no moderate rain. The rain, it seems, always finds a way to move in such a way, as to MISS us!

We received about one one thousand twenty fourth of an inch of badly needed rain.

That's just great!

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2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

And now the punting of 2 week sections of January begins.  GFS is a parade of rainers and ends its run at like 70 degrees in the mid Atlantic.  

if it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm.

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2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

if it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm.

Absolutely not, give me 2-3 weeks of frigid and no snow if it has to be that way. Ticks are out of control the past few years. We need some real cold to knock their numbers down

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7 minutes ago, TSG said:

Absolutely not, give me 2-3 weeks of frigid and no snow if it has to be that way. Ticks are out of control the past few years. We need some real cold to knock their numbers down

I agree that it might as well be warm. Gives us a chance to do more outdoor activities and get some sun. I'd rather be on the tennis courts with my son in 55 degree weather than stuck inside on a sunny day with temps in the 20s. 

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6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I agree that it might as well be warm. Gives us a chance to do more outdoor activities and get some sun. I'd rather be on the tennis courts with my son in 55 degree weather than stuck inside on a sunny day with temps in the 20s. 

Okay but being able to enjoy outdoor activities is exactly what I'm talking about? short vs long term gains. 2-3 weeks of real cold to not worry about coming home with 10 ticks every time you go hiking for the next 12 months

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6 minutes ago, TSG said:

Okay but being able to enjoy outdoor activities is exactly what I'm talking about? short vs long term gains. 2-3 weeks of real cold to not worry about coming home with 10 ticks every time you go hiking for the next 12 months

I found a tick on my ball sack back in October. All of those useless parasites can burn or freeze to death.

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I thought it was a scab and started picking at it and luckily it came off. Did you get lymes?

Man I got Lyme's and spent almost 8yrs trying to figure out what was wrong with me - went to a zillion doctors over the years and thought I was going crazy.  Finally someone ordered the proper test and figured out all along it was Lyme's.  4mo of antibiotics and I was cured.  Of course all those antibiotics landed me in the emergency room four separate times with massive C Diff infections but them's the breaks.  

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12 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Haven't had a plowable snowstorm here since 2016. 

8 years.

 

It truly is unreal. 

Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025?

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025?

i wonder how well this is gonna age in a few weeks lmao

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025?

Nah, we’ll probably go into another multi-year nina after this one because that seems to happen every time an el nino goes strong borderline super. This winter is our best shot at a KU or at least hitting climo with a couple of snowstorms. 

Still 2 months of winter left. But if we don’t hit, that’s it for us. Lights out. 

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1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

i wonder how well this is gonna age in a few weeks lmao

I hope it ages poorly and I have to eat a buffet of crow, but I could see DCA, PHL, IAD, and BWI pitching a shutout in the snowfall department after tomorrow.

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