clueless Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, TowsonWeather said: Do you not realize his game by now? If snow is projected, he blathers about some nonsense to say it won't snow. If it isn't forecast, he blathers about some nonsense to say that it will. I forgot to add my grain of salt to my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2024 at 9:02 AM, Clueless said: Chuck is the man. Thanks. It's a learning opportunity. Do you see how the storm got sheared out by relative SE ridge in trend. It was because the models were not properly estimating the impacts of -PNA/RNA pattern (N. Pacific High, pretty strong). Last Winter there were a few times at 5-7 days where the models had a +EPO (Alaska trough) and they were showing snow, then it adjusted to the surface level warmth in the closer timeframe. These two patterns, -PNA and +EPO are not conductive to big snows, when they are in a strong phase, so it trended warmer and phased out (in my experience, the models don't totally account for that, for whatever reason). I showed +0.53 charts for PNA-pattern in January. https://ibb.co/mvGCw9F [default positive]. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Ugly. Avoids DC/Balt and nails NYC and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/3/2024 at 4:43 PM, SnowenOutThere said: I think we got one last were so back cycle left, starting at 6z and peaking 18z tomorrow with some ridiculous NAM run All is progressing according to my plan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 90% chance of rain tonight. One half inch of rain accumulation. This outcome, no real rain at all, is why Texas is blowing away. The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind. The answer, is Blowin' in the Wind. We have a strong El Nino. The eastern part of the US will have floods. Texas is meanwhile getting drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier and drier. The southwestern US will go the way of the ancient Mayans. You will witness this in your lifetimes. We get MISSED by 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent of all rainstorms. El Ninos are no help to us. NO HELP AT ALL, WHATSOEVER! The Austin Metropolitan Region is living proof of that. We are CURSED. We will live cursed, and we will die cursed. Of that, There is NO DOUBT. Because of the LACK of rain - I am cursed when I come in, and I am cursed when I go out. The Nino is strong. It will bring Texas very little real rain. Then when the inevitable Nina comes later this year, we will be SUPER DRY and insufferably HOT with absolutely NO remedy, ever! Welcome to Hell. We had some drizzle this afternoon. We got no light rain. We got no moderate rain. The rain, it seems, always finds a way to move in such a way, as to MISS us! We received about one one thousand twenty fourth of an inch of badly needed rain. That's just great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And now the punting of 2 week sections of January begins. GFS is a parade of rainers and ends its run at like 70 degrees in the mid Atlantic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This is really pathetic. Its getting embarrassing at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hey, at least the ground outside is frozen right now? Now that we can't get frozen precip to accumulate any more, I take the small wins. The ground is hard, and cold. Winter? Right?? RIGHT???? Also, as lame as the LR op GFS looks, methinks one shouldn't trust it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I love this place. So many weirdos. The humor in here unique, but it has me rolling sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: And now the punting of 2 week sections of January begins. GFS is a parade of rainers and ends its run at like 70 degrees in the mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Reading the long range thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: And now the punting of 2 week sections of January begins. GFS is a parade of rainers and ends its run at like 70 degrees in the mid Atlantic. if it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: if it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. Absolutely not, give me 2-3 weeks of frigid and no snow if it has to be that way. Ticks are out of control the past few years. We need some real cold to knock their numbers down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Haven't had a plowable snowstorm here since 2016. 8 years. It truly is unreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, TSG said: Absolutely not, give me 2-3 weeks of frigid and no snow if it has to be that way. Ticks are out of control the past few years. We need some real cold to knock their numbers down I agree that it might as well be warm. Gives us a chance to do more outdoor activities and get some sun. I'd rather be on the tennis courts with my son in 55 degree weather than stuck inside on a sunny day with temps in the 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I haven’t looked at a model today. Freaking depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I agree that it might as well be warm. Gives us a chance to do more outdoor activities and get some sun. I'd rather be on the tennis courts with my son in 55 degree weather than stuck inside on a sunny day with temps in the 20s. Okay but being able to enjoy outdoor activities is exactly what I'm talking about? short vs long term gains. 2-3 weeks of real cold to not worry about coming home with 10 ticks every time you go hiking for the next 12 months 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, TSG said: Okay but being able to enjoy outdoor activities is exactly what I'm talking about? short vs long term gains. 2-3 weeks of real cold to not worry about coming home with 10 ticks every time you go hiking for the next 12 months I found a tick on my ball sack back in October. All of those useless parasites can burn or freeze to death. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 to 1! and half of this is from "tomorrow" (!!!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 49 minutes ago, TSG said: Okay but being able to enjoy outdoor activities is exactly what I'm talking about? short vs long term gains. 2-3 weeks of real cold to not worry about coming home with 10 ticks every time you go hiking for the next 12 months Buy some opossums and let them loose in your yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 57 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I found a tick on my ball sack back in October. All of those useless parasites can burn or freeze to death. Happened to me twice in 1 month years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Happened to me twice in 1 month years ago I thought it was a scab and started picking at it and luckily it came off. Did you get lymes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: I thought it was a scab and started picking at it and luckily it came off. Did you get lymes? Man I got Lyme's and spent almost 8yrs trying to figure out what was wrong with me - went to a zillion doctors over the years and thought I was going crazy. Finally someone ordered the proper test and figured out all along it was Lyme's. 4mo of antibiotics and I was cured. Of course all those antibiotics landed me in the emergency room four separate times with massive C Diff infections but them's the breaks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1742514474207043737?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktgAt least it’s not only us that gets tricked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 did we lose psu? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Haven't had a plowable snowstorm here since 2016. 8 years. It truly is unreal. Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: did we lose psu? He’ll probably get a “surprise” 8” tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025? i wonder how well this is gonna age in a few weeks lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025? Nah, we’ll probably go into another multi-year nina after this one because that seems to happen every time an el nino goes strong borderline super. This winter is our best shot at a KU or at least hitting climo with a couple of snowstorms. Still 2 months of winter left. But if we don’t hit, that’s it for us. Lights out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: i wonder how well this is gonna age in a few weeks lmao I hope it ages poorly and I have to eat a buffet of crow, but I could see DCA, PHL, IAD, and BWI pitching a shutout in the snowfall department after tomorrow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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