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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

it was on the globals... it was on the ens... we flagged this period around Christmas... Possibly losing this one blows and idrc what the people who pretend to come on this forum with zero emotions til the day of think. I don't believe them, quite frankly

It's humbling to know we can (potentially) still lose it all in the MR. In theory one would like to think that means we could stumble into a great storm (Jan 2022?) in the mid-range too. Also nice to know that the models def don't have it all figured out... that's the eventual death of this hobby.

Devils advocate…didn’t those of us that have played this game long enough kinda know deep down in our gut that we were playing with fire seeing those marginal temps and that our area being on the southern edge of the consensus snow at 150 hours was not ideal?  
 

Come on admit it…almost every major snow event from 100-150 were either in the bullseye or the northern edge of the snow. That’s why the “fringed” joke with me. We want me to be fringed at 120 hours?  If I’m worried about mixing at day 6 we’re not in a great spot!  I hinted at that but I didn’t want to be the Deb so I mostly stayed quiet. 
 

Things can trend to snow from day 5. And it’s possible we still get a decent event if this new evolution trends our way.  But the truth is even if guidance didn’t show a big hit day 6 we would probably see the signs it could trend that way and we wouldn’t be caught surprised. Think back to Dec 2009.  It wasn’t on guidance like that from 7 days but we saw the potential and were tracking it and knew it has a good chance to trend into that!  
 

We knew inside this wasn’t a great look at day 6 to get a big snow and we probably would identify a threat that wasn’t looking big verbatim but had the potential to trend better also!  We’ve become very pretty good at this game in this sub I think. 

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Devils advocate…didn’t those of us that have played this game long enough kinda know deep down in our gut that we were playing with fire seeing those marginal temps and that our area being on the southern edge of the consensus snow at 150 hours was not ideal?  
 
Come on admit it…almost every major snow event from 100-150 were either in the bullseye or the northern edge of the snow. That’s why the “fringed” joke with me. We want me to be fringed at 120 hours?  If I’m worried about mixing at day 6 we’re not in a great spot!  I hinted at that but I didn’t want to be the Deb so I mostly stayed quiet. 
 
Things can trend to snow from day 5. And it’s possible we still get a decent event if this new evolution trends our way.  But the truth is even if guidance didn’t show a big hit day 6 we would probably see the signs it could trend that way and we wouldn’t be caught surprised. Think back to Dec 2009.  It wasn’t on guidance like that from 7 days but we saw the potential and were tracking it and knew it has a good chance to trend into that!  
 
We knew inside this wasn’t a great look at day 6 to get a big snow and we probably would identify a threat that wasn’t looking big verbatim but had the potential to trend better also!  We’ve become very pretty good at this game in this sub I think. 

We’re so back
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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To whomever runs this place currently:

NOW IS THE TIME TO DIG THE GRAVES. DO NOT STOP UNTIL EITHER SNOW IS FALLING OR THE LAST WEENIE HAS BEEN LAID TO REST.

THE BACK OF THE PROPERTY IS A GOOD LOCATION. 

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b952botwihh1gnkt9kria

YOU run this place, Reaper! You do your job! Do NOT pass the Buck! It stops right here! The Buck stops with YOU!! Now get out there and fookin' REAP! Show 'em how its done!!!!

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

The 12z and 18z model suite might be the most important runs in the last 2 years.

I wonder if the final chapters are written on this now.  I am thinking not and there will be some shifts but places like my yard are so on the line of completely nothing to a little something comes down to a few miles.  every map the next tier of accumulations stops right on my fault line.  I call it my fault line because it was my fault I was too lazy to drive further NW.  "Sure this area looks ok and affordable.  I am tired and need a drink lets buy this house" 

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7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s the OP, but yea, check out this block to ridge hook up. Puke 6524b37a5b8773cd68499cc811d9ca8e.jpg


.

You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous.

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11 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous.

As we are seeing with this upcoming weekend posting an operational map 6 days away is ridiculous.  16 days might as well be next winters map.  

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16 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous.

It’s like whiplash every 12 hours.

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14 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Imagine if this storm does a double rug-pull lmao

yes, yes I could imagine that.  now a triple rug pull?...that would be something.  pull the rug for a 3rd time like Friday night 0z runs.  

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2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

You really need to stop this manic behavior. What is the point of posting this? I'm not trying to attack you so don't take it personally. Everyone knows there's potential things could go wrong. Posting an operational map 16 days away is ridiculous.

Too early to start panicking about next fall?

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_8.png

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