NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I saw the euro before this and was kinda confused Do you understand now? Good news is we've got time for one more cycle, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 if you liked 0z icon....you will like 12z less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This room should be filling again shortly. Absolutely ugly 12z suite thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This room should be filling again shortly. Absolutely ugly 12z suite thus far. It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses! To be clear, I'm hoping for 3" - 5" of snow at home this weekend. We've been in a bad snow drought since 2016 as a region and folks are almost zero tolerance for another rug pull. That is complete understandable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I just lost 5” of virtual snow on the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I don't usually go into the panic room, but... *sigh* Oh well, back to work 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This room should be filling again shortly. Absolutely ugly 12z suite thus far. Look at the cmc. That should make you feel better for a minute or 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Even if we dont score with this one, the pattern still looks favorable for mid month on. At least today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 LOL did you all fall for another AmWx pump-and-dump? Need to add a fraud hotline to the phones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Most important 12z EURO run of our lives 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This board LIVES on the anxiety/denial/fear/desperation/panic slope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We had to start a thread. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore. Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc. we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore. Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc. we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple. It doesn’t get cold at night anymore, that’s our main problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore. Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc. we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple. I’m starting to buy into the Pac being the biggest issue. It’s hard to get cold enough if there’s a constant stream of vorts moving through the northern tier of the country. During the shorter days, we want the coldest locations to have clear skies at night. I’m over-generalizing, but the lack of clippers is a hint that the northern stream is just too far north the last several years. That said, we do have near peak climo working for us this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I mean my god.. we literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @WxUSAF it’s time to axe the storm thread. Hate to say it but it can’t hurt to do it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I mean my god.. we literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I had that feeling today, knew it. Been around too long . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It doesn’t get cold at night anymore, that’s our main problem. I haven't recorded a below freezing low temperature since Dec 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it No it was.. like even out this way 81 is practically in my backyard west of Roanoke and even I didn’t feel too safe. 12z just gave the dagger. Really unfortunate. I did kind of get my hopes up on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I don't know why I allowed myself to have any hope for this storm. Like I haven't learned this lesson like 45 times over the years. Looking at the 10-day forecast on my WeatherBug app is more accurate than watching the models .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: We literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. Try not to fall into the trap of expect TOO much from NWP for some details from a certain range. Said details that make a big difference can't always be seen from 6 days out...Computers are way, way ahead of 1998, but still not at a place where they can say a week out what it will do when you have various shortwave interactions. I think we get starry eyed at a Day 6 bomb and subconsciously expect that to happen. But the change we saw with this storm is normal variability at this range as the models focus in. Rule of thumb for weekend threats: Don't let yourself get invested before Wednesday. I find that's always a line of demarcation for big shifts (and even then...weather still has chaos). That's how I look at it, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 its just the new vort in the SW/Central US that digs and fucks up everything, not only induces height rises and make the low go north but also flattens out the storm and makes it weak, not as simple as "NW of low snows" anymore sadly good news is this energy is over the aleutians rn, i would give it some time before canceling this but trends are unfavorable rn ill admitIs there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Anyone forecasting normal or above normal snowfall for this winter is in trouble. We're down like 21-0 in the 3rd quarter and our offense is doing nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Anyone forecasting normal or above normal snowfall for this winter is in trouble. We're down like 21-0 in the 3rd quarter and our offense is doing nothing. More like, its the end of the first quarter and we’re down 14-3. We did get a field goal on Dec 11. Still plenty of game left 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: More like, its the end of the first quarter and we’re down 14-3. We did get a field goal on Dec 11. Still plenty of game left But what if Ron Rivera is your coach? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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