Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This room should be filling again shortly. Absolutely ugly 12z suite thus far.

It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses!

To be clear, I'm hoping for 3" - 5" of snow at home this weekend. We've been in a bad snow drought since 2016 as a region and folks are almost zero tolerance for another rug pull. That is complete understandable.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore.  Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc.  we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore.  Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc.  we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple. 

It doesn’t get cold at night anymore, that’s our main problem. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We can debate all we want about the specifics but at the end of the day it’s just not cold enough to snow anymore.  Sometimes it’s an inland track sometimes it’s a storm that’s too weak etc etc.  we don’t spend enough time below freezing anymore to get snow, it’s that simple. 

I’m starting to buy into the Pac being the biggest issue. It’s hard to get cold enough if there’s a constant stream of vorts moving through the northern tier of the country. During the shorter days, we want the coldest locations to have clear skies at night. I’m over-generalizing, but the lack of clippers is a hint that the northern stream is just too far north the last several years. That said, we do have near peak climo working for us this weekend.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean my god.. we literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I mean my god.. we literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. 

The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it

No it was.. like even out this way 81 is practically in my backyard west of Roanoke and even I didn’t feel too safe. 12z just gave the dagger. Really unfortunate. I did kind of get my hopes up on this one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

We literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. 

Try not to fall into the trap of expect TOO much from NWP for some details from a certain range. Said details that make a big difference can't always be seen from 6 days out...Computers are way, way ahead of 1998, but still not at a place where they can say a week out what it will do when you have various shortwave interactions. 

I think we get starry eyed at a Day 6 bomb and subconsciously expect that to happen. But the change we saw with this storm is normal variability at this range as the models focus in. Rule of thumb for weekend threats: Don't let yourself get invested before Wednesday. I find that's always a line of demarcation for big shifts (and even then...weather still has chaos). That's how I look at it, anyway.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

its just the new vort in the SW/Central US that digs and fucks up everything, not only induces height rises and make the low go north but also flattens out the storm and makes it weak, not as simple as "NW of low snows" anymore sadly

good news is this energy is over the aleutians rn, i would give it some time before canceling this but trends are unfavorable rn ill admit


Is there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Anyone forecasting normal or above normal snowfall for this winter is in trouble. We're down like 21-0 in the 3rd quarter and our offense is doing nothing.

More like, its the end of the first quarter and we’re down 14-3. We did get a field goal on Dec 11. Still plenty of game left 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

More like, its the end of the first quarter and we’re down 14-3. We did get a field goal on Dec 11. Still plenty of game left 

But what if Ron Rivera is your coach?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...